, Finance Committee
Welsh Government Draft Budget 2025-26: Evidence session 8
Just on that, with your analysis of what that might cost and where it might come from, have you looked at, if you were to, say, put a floor in at 4.3 per cent, at the average, roughly how much that would cost? Do you have that idea—
, Finance Committee
Welsh Government Draft Budget 2025-26: Evidence session 8
That's unless you're appointed to those roles, as you have been over the last period, but there we are. [Laughter.] Sam Rowlands.
, Finance Committee
Welsh Government Draft Budget 2025-26: Evidence session 8
Certainly, yes.
, Finance Committee
Welsh Government Draft Budget 2025-26: Evidence session 8
Thanks for that, Mike. Actually, John, I might just go straight to Sam, if I may, and he might be able to start with that, unless you've got one brief question to come in at the start.
, Finance Committee
Welsh Government Draft Budget 2025-26: Evidence session 8
Mike wanted to come in very briefly, and I'm conscious of time, so, your answers are very fascinating, but could we keep them shorter, please? Then, Mike.
, Finance Committee
Welsh Government Draft Budget 2025-26: Evidence session 8
Great. That takes us on to health and social care. I think John's got one question, and then we'll move on to Sam.
, Finance Committee
Welsh Government Draft Budget 2025-26: Evidence session 8
Okay. Thank you. John.
, Finance Committee
Welsh Government Draft Budget 2025-26: Evidence session 8
And looking at those unintended consequences that have only come to light after a few years.
, Finance Committee
Welsh Government Draft Budget 2025-26: Evidence session 8
Just on that point, broader than children’s services, just in general as a Government, how often do you review the, effectively, rules that you put in place to drive the right behaviour? How often do you look at the behaviour you’re trying to do and then…
, Finance Committee
Welsh Government Draft Budget 2025-26: Evidence session 8
It was in the context of social services and health, the interplay between the two, as well, so, potentially—
, Finance Committee
Welsh Government Draft Budget 2025-26: Evidence session 8
We'll go back to—I know he's not in this committee as it—the Chair of local government and housing there. But, John Griffiths, you might have a view yourself on this, but we'll move on. Time is marching on with us as well, but maybe—. I'll come back to John…
, Finance Committee
Welsh Government Draft Budget 2025-26: Evidence session 8
I think, from memory, with the IFS, it was not the 80 per cent that they were talking about, but the 20 per cent of the properties that were then becoming second homes, as opposed to primary homes, for people. It was that aspect that was—it goes back to the…
, Finance Committee
Welsh Government Draft Budget 2025-26: Evidence session 8
I think Mike Hedges might want to come in just on that point, if I may bring Mike in.
, Finance Committee
Welsh Government Draft Budget 2025-26: Evidence session 8
Thank you. Good question there. That's something I'd echo as well. I'll now bring John Griffiths in, if I may, and I think he's going to talk about some of the tax and economic forecasts. John.
, Finance Committee
Welsh Government Draft Budget 2025-26: Evidence session 8
Certainly, yes.
, Finance Committee
Welsh Government Draft Budget 2025-26: Evidence session 8
Okay, thank you for that. Just finally from me, and I'll come to John Griffiths after this: some of the discussions that you've been having with UK Government—well, I hope that you've been having them with the UK Government, and I believe that you have—are on…
, Finance Committee
Welsh Government Draft Budget 2025-26: Evidence session 8
Yes, it's a very complicated issue, because every local authority—especially local authorities—are at different stages of managing their budgets, and you give them the autonomy to do that, but some might have made decisions and, in hindsight, they might have…
, Finance Committee
Welsh Government Draft Budget 2025-26: Evidence session 8
Taking that forward for public services in Wales—some are done in-house, and they are public service employees in that definition—and then you have third sector and other bodies providing front-line services in our communities that are contracted out—that…
, Finance Committee
Welsh Government Draft Budget 2025-26: Evidence session 8
I think you’ve described it as fundamentally unfair.
, Finance Committee
Welsh Government Draft Budget 2025-26: Evidence session 8
Talking a bit about bundles of money potentially going to local government in particular and possibly a wider context rather than just local government, but in terms of the national insurance contributions, it’s come up nearly with every single stakeholder…
, Finance Committee
Welsh Government Draft Budget 2025-26: Evidence session 8
A letter we've been copied into, to Welsh Government from the future generations commissioner, urges it to protect and ring-fence funding for prevention in future Welsh Government budgets. So, have you had sight of that letter? And how do you go about doing…
, Finance Committee
Welsh Government Draft Budget 2025-26: Evidence session 8
Some of the work that the OBR have been doing, and others, is looking at the effects of climate change—I know the Future Generations Commissioner for Wales obviously looks at that longer term, and we've got the Act to do that. In this way that you're looking…
, Finance Committee
Welsh Government Draft Budget 2025-26: Evidence session 8
Thank you. I'm just trying to think of the people on the bus that you were talking about earlier—maybe not necessarily those, but our stakeholders, local government, some of the people that we've had in front of us giving evidence. What will they see from…
, Finance Committee
Welsh Government Draft Budget 2025-26: Evidence session 8
Thank you for that. The UK Government are doing a spending review. You've committed to doing a Welsh spending review. Could you talk about timescales with that and how that will be fed through, and how those results will be described and maybe the process…
, Finance Committee
Welsh Government Draft Budget 2025-26: Evidence session 8
We seem to be having strange years every year.
