, Finance Committee
Welsh Government Draft Budget 2025-26: Evidence session 2
With that aspect, I'm just interested in how you would go about—. How good is your data gathering, I suppose, in knowing these events, because they're quite significant purchasing events? How is your data gathering able to inform your forecast, or is it just…
, Finance Committee
Welsh Government Draft Budget 2025-26: Evidence session 2
I'll bring Sam in now. Thank you.
, Finance Committee
Welsh Government Draft Budget 2025-26: Evidence session 2
Thank you very much. Mike Hedges. There we are, thank you.
, Finance Committee
Welsh Government Draft Budget 2025-26: Evidence session 2
In social care, for example.
, Finance Committee
Welsh Government Draft Budget 2025-26: Evidence session 2
But then would that assume that those rises were passed on to the third sector providing those services, through into local government and then onto those contracts, rather than it going into, potentially, those departments and being used in different ways?
, Finance Committee
Welsh Government Draft Budget 2025-26: Evidence session 2
Just thinking back to the NIC contributions and that make-up of the Welsh economy, with a significant part in the public sector, then you've got a real chunk of the economy where you've got the third sector heavily involved, and that impact of national…
, Finance Committee
Welsh Government Draft Budget 2025-26: Evidence session 2
Tom.
, Finance Committee
Welsh Government Draft Budget 2025-26: Evidence session 2
Mike.
, Finance Committee
Welsh Government Draft Budget 2025-26: Evidence session 2
I think it'll be of great interest to this committee as well, going forward. Thank you. I'll move on now to Mike Hedges. Mike, I'll bring you in.
, Finance Committee
Welsh Government Draft Budget 2025-26: Evidence session 2
And is that analysis work that you've decided to do yourselves, or is that something that's been commissioned by either Government or somebody else?
, Finance Committee
Welsh Government Draft Budget 2025-26: Evidence session 2
And is that data freely available to you? Are you able to—? Do you have that granularity?
, Finance Committee
Welsh Government Draft Budget 2025-26: Evidence session 2
What impact does the freezing of thresholds to 2029 have on that? Because obviously that increases the receipts, but then has more of a negative effect on people in lower income sectors, similar to what Sam was talking about earlier.
, Finance Committee
Welsh Government Draft Budget 2025-26: Evidence session 2
Okay.
, Finance Committee
Welsh Government Draft Budget 2025-26: Evidence session 2
And that medium term is 2028-29, or—?
, Finance Committee
Welsh Government Draft Budget 2025-26: Evidence session 2
Is it public sector spending? Or what's having the biggest effect there to mitigate, I suppose, what we've just been talking about?
, Finance Committee
Welsh Government Draft Budget 2025-26: Evidence session 2
The budget—
, Finance Committee
Welsh Government Draft Budget 2025-26: Evidence session 2
So, what sorts of policy aspects—
, Finance Committee
Welsh Government Draft Budget 2025-26: Evidence session 2
Tom, did you want to come in on that?
, Finance Committee
Welsh Government Draft Budget 2025-26: Evidence session 2
So, with that then, how does that then relate into your forecasts for WRIT, and how have you used that in your assumptions?
, Finance Committee
Welsh Government Draft Budget 2025-26: Evidence session 2
Sam, did you want to come in?
, Finance Committee
Welsh Government Draft Budget 2025-26: Evidence session 2
Yes, of course.
, Finance Committee
Welsh Government Draft Budget 2025-26: Evidence session 2
I don't know if you want to—
, Finance Committee
Welsh Government Draft Budget 2025-26: Evidence session 2
I think Mike Hedges just wanted to come in on that.
, Finance Committee
Welsh Government Draft Budget 2025-26: Evidence session 2
We were debating this earlier and saying you might be one of the furthest evidence sessions that we've ever had, so you're holding the record at the moment, especially in this committee. So, welcome, and hopefully the jet lag won't be too bad. Thank you very…
, Finance Committee
Welsh Government Draft Budget 2025-26: Evidence session 2
Fantastic. And we've got Professor David online. If you could introduce yourself as well, please.
