Written question WQ85572

We carried out an assessment of fuel poverty in Wales in 2018 and published Fuel Poverty Estimates in 2019. The assessment showed there were an estimated 155,000 households living in fuel poverty. This is equivalent to 12% of all households in Wales. These estimates were disaggregated by local authority area. Estimated levels of fuel poverty in rural areas was 14%, which is higher than the national average.

On 13 April 2022, a statistical article was published by the Welsh Government. This statistical article was not disaggregated into local authority areas. Estimates of fuel poverty for October 2021 are that:

• 196,000 households in Wales were living in fuel poverty, equivalent to 14% of households.

• 38,000 households were living in severe fuel poverty (3% of households).

• 153,000 households were at risk of fuel poverty (11% of households).

Taking the 2021 modelled estimates of fuel poverty, revising them using fuel prices (electricity, mains gas, and heating oil) from 1 April 2022, and assuming all households are on the price cap, we now estimate:

• Up to 45% (614,000) of all households could be in fuel poverty following the price cap increase of April 2022 using the Welsh fuel poverty measure;

• Up to 8% (115,000) of all households could be in severe fuel poverty;

• Up to 15% (201,000) of all households could be at risk of falling into fuel poverty following the price cap increase of April 2022.

The above estimates for April 2022 however, do not take account of UK and Welsh Government financial support provided through the Winter Fuel support scheme, Warm Homes Discount (UK Government) and other schemes in Winter 2021/2022 and that announced for later in 2022. They are therefore believed to be an overestimate.

Whilst acknowledging these levels may be an overestimate, they still demonstrate a significant increase in estimated levels of fuel poverty in Wales, likely to be made even worse when the energy price cap is further increased later this year.

Energy price rises are likely to disproportionately hit lower income households as they spend a higher proportion of their income on utility bills. For, households on lower incomes there could be significant increases with up to 217,700 (98%) predicted to be in fuel poverty following the price cap increase of April 2022 and up to 91,700 (41%) predicted to be in severe fuel poverty. The remaining households on low incomes are all potentially at risk of fuel poverty (3,500, 2%).