Children, Young People, and Education Committee

Thank you. So, we’ll just go through introductions, apologies, substitutions and declarations of interest. I’d like to welcome everyone to today’s meeting of the Children, Young People and Education Committee. The public items of this meeting are being broadcast live on Senedd.tv. The Record of Proceedings will be published as usual. The meeting is bilingual and simultaneous translation from Welsh to English is available. We have received apologies from Buffy Williams and also Joel James. Are there any declarations of interest from Members? No declarations of interest. Thank you very much. We have two of our Members online—Natasha and Vaughan.

So, item 2 is Medr’s annual scrutiny session, and I’d like to welcome Simon Pirotte, who’s the chief executive officer of Medr, and James Owen, chief operating officer of Medr. Welcome to the committee. We’re just going to start with the first questions. So, briefly, what are your reflections on the process of establishing Medr and getting it up and running? What went well, and what might have you done differently?

Diolch yn fawr, Chair. I know it has been in the diary for some time to have this session talking about the establishment of Medr, but I think it’s important for me to recognise that we’re probably in a very tumultuous time in education at the moment, particularly with some of the proposals around our higher education system at the moment. And I think I just want to go on record to say that we really understand the concerns and the challenges that staff are facing during this difficult time.

The last time I was here before this committee was to confirm my appointment as chief executive of Medr. A lot has happened since then. And when I was asked to do this role, I sort of hesitated for a moment and then said a firm 'yes', and I'd just like to talk a little bit about my personal journey, because I think that that gives an indication of where we're coming from as Medr and what we actually want to achieve.

So, like many people in the education system, it was a real lifeline for me. My dad died when I was nine years old. I was on free school meals, living in my estate in Swansea. I was the youngest of four kids. My mother held down several cleaning jobs just to make ends meet. I was fortunate because I had a family that supported me, but also I had teachers in my time at Morriston Comprehensive School in Swansea that saw something in me that maybe I didn't see in myself. I went to university, to Aberystwyth University. When I worked, I did my part-time Master's at the University of Glamorgan, now the University of South Wales. I've been very, very lucky through that education system. It was a passport for me, a ticket to a better life, and I was enabled through that education to have a fulfilling and rewarding career, which is coming towards the end, but I've had nearly 40 years of working in education.

And I share that story, really, because I think it's important that when we talk about Medr and what we're trying to achieve here, that what we want is that everybody in Wales has the opportunities that I was so fortunate to have, which changed my life and had a transformative impact on me as an individual. So, everything that we're trying to do at Medr in terms of its establishment and what we're trying to create here, I think, is about trying to increase the opportunities that we're trying to give to the people of Wales.

So, we're really glad to be here today to talk about it. Medr was established on 1 August last year, so we're six months old, and a lot has happened. Sometimes that feels like a lot longer, but a lot has happened within that six months. I think that we're really aware of the responsibility of that role, at such an important time during education, when, let's be honest, we're taking over responsibility for post-16 education at a time of great change in the education system, and some massive challenges. So, within that context of volatility, I think it was even more important for us to do everything that we could to establish a smooth transition into the new arrangements that Medr was responsible for, and we were very keen that, as a new regulator, really, we wanted to make sure that there was a smooth transition, because of the challenges that the sector was facing.

I'm pleased to say that even with all that change within the system, I think we've managed to achieve that smooth transition. Within our first month, £86 million-worth of funding went out through the door. We're bringing together two sets of staff, both from the Higher Education Funding Council for Wales and colleagues from Welsh Government, and recruiting new staff as well. So, that aspect, I think, has been smooth, and I sometimes reflect on that and think, 'Well, you know, that's a low bar, isn't it, to expect that?' But actually, if we didn't get those things right in terms of building the trust that the organisation needs to have in the sector, then other things wouldn't be able to be built upon that.

I would like to go on record as saying that the colleagues from Welsh Government and HEFCW moving into Medr have done a tremendous job. There were times in the build-up to the establishment of Medr where it must have felt like they were doing two jobs—their day job both in HEFCW and Welsh Government, but also looking forward to thinking about setting up Medr as well. So, they've been fantastic, and a real credit to the organisation.

Okay. Thank you. As you said, your term is coming to an end in September and there were challenges in recruiting to the post. Given those challenges recruiting last time, what challenges are there in finding a suitable replacement? Do you think that there will be issues?

It's a challenging job, but it's a very exciting job as well. I think it's a really important role. We've had a good conversation with the sector, and I think that there's confidence in terms of what we're doing. So, as I said, I think we're optimistic that there will be a good field of candidates and that the board will be able to make an appointment. Yes, it's challenging, but really exciting as well.

James, have you got anything to add regarding the process of establishing Medr—what went well and what you might have done diferently?

Yes, maybe just a couple of reflections. I think, for the record, it might just be helpful for the committee to know that I was the director in the Welsh Government responsible for the establishment of the commission before I was appointed to Medr in May. So, I've seen it, I guess, from both sides. I think that the one obvious thing is that time and resources are always really important when creating a new organisation. We did have a little bit more time with the delay in the commencement of the legislation to August, and that really did help us, I think, to make sure that our systems and our processes were up and running.

I think I've two reflections on lessons, I guess, during that period of time. It was very difficult to start preparing a strategic plan before the organisation was operational. So, whilst we had a small team of really dedicated colleagues working with Simon during the period leading up to the operational date, working on that, we didn't have the full capacity, if you like, of Medr, because HEFCW still existed and Welsh Government functions in further education still existed. And I think that probably did lead to a few things in the strategic plan that we didn't give enough emphasis to in our consultation. So, there were some themes that came through our consultation that had to be run in September to ensure that we hit the deadlines for submission that we probably didn't have enough depth of understanding or knowledge for at that time. But I think the really good thing about, then, the coming together of Medr is that that expertise, that knowledge and experience has really helped to shape a response to that consultation as we look to move forward. So, I think that that would be the one reflection of what probably would have been more helpful in terms of the breadth of expertise available to Medr during that period of time where it had to start consulting on its strategic plan.

Other than that, though, from both, I guess, my former role and this, the priority for us, the priority for Welsh Ministers was to ensure a smooth transition, as Simon said, with no discernible disruption to learners or to the sector, and I think that we achieved that.

Okay. Thank you. Your papers say that you avoided structuring Medr internally according to different parts of the sector to create a more joined-up system. How do you feel this is working in practice and what challenges have you faced so far in breaking out of sectoral silos?

That's a really good question, and I think that one of the things that we talk about is developing a tertiary mindset, because obviously we have individuals both from HEFCW and Welsh Government who have become experts within their field. And it was very tempting to think, 'Well, let's just carry on with that, because that will help us with a smooth transition', but I think that the reason that Medr has been set up is to look at joining up and thinking about the links that we can make across various parts of the sector. And it was interesting, just from the get-go, really, putting those staff with particular expertise in their areas in a room together, immediately they started talking about what that future could look like and the opportunities that might be there for a more joined-up way of thinking. So, I think it's been a combination of building on the expertise and using the expertise that we have, but we're still within that process, I think, of people learning about the nuances of a very, very complex sector.

I think that's also true for our board as well. We've got some really good brains around the table at board level, with specific expertise in their areas, so they've been on a journey as well and are still continuing that journey to understand all aspects of the post-16 sector. I don't know, James, if you want to add anything to that.

Yes, I think it's the combination of bringing the existing experience, knowledge and skills from the two organisations that came together and then starting to harness that against the context and the vision and values for Medr that Simon talked about. And so, that’s always going to take a little bit of time—that’s the process of change. But we deliberately tried to bring teams together right from the outset. Long before we were operational, teams, team leaders were meeting regularly—regular staff engagement—to start to build that esprit de corps that’s really important in any organisation. We have this mantra that we’re all new. So, the organisation is new, but wherever you come from—your knowledge, skills and experience—whether it’s HEFCW, Welsh Government or a new starter, we’re all new to Medr and we’re all part of this journey together. So, I think using our vision and values to really shape that approach has been effective.

We’ve got more to do, so, inevitably, there’s more recruitment that we need to do to build capacity in certain areas and more bringing together of some of those existing functions to create that tertiary mindset that Simon talked about, but already, through our indicative budget allocations, we’ve been thinking about that and looking at opportunities to bring together budgets that were previously maybe in FE or HE particularly, and thinking about how we can take a more tertiary approach to it.

Okay, thank you. Do the strategic duties set out under the Act and the priorities set by the Welsh Government provide the right level of detail in terms of setting the direction of Medr, or do you feel that more flexibility is needed?

Again, if I kick off on that one, I think it's useful to have parameters. We're not starting with a blank sheet of paper, so we have, obviously, the 11 strategic duties in the legislation, but also the statement of priorities from Welsh Government as well. So, that's helped to form a context in which we're working, and I think things will evolve. We're a new organisation, we've just set up, we've tried to enable a smooth transition, but I think, over a period of time, there are conversations to be had about how we might do things differently in the future, what that could look like, and whether there are ways in which organisations and institutions and stakeholders can work even more closely together.

In my engagement with stakeholders, both through the creation of our strategic plan and in the regular meetings that we have, there's a real willingness in Wales to think about how we can operate differently and to join up some of that thinking—there's a real desire for that. So, again, I'm optimistic about that, but, James, do you want to add anything to that?

Yes, I'd agree. I think it was particularly helpful in our inception phase, if you like, that we had a very clear steer from Government around their priorities, but also through the legislation, the duties that are placed on Medr. I think our job in developing our first strategic plan for consultation was to ensure that we were recognising the breadth of this new organisation. And as I probably reflected a little earlier, that was a challenge before we were operational, because we didn’t have the people in the organisation who had that breadth of skills and knowledge. But I think, actually, from our perspective, having that platform to develop a strategic plan, a very clear steer about Government priorities has been incredibly helpful.

Okay, thank you. We like priorities and targets here. So, I'd like to know what are the short-term priorities for Medr over the next one to two years—we've heard some already—and what do you want to achieve. And then also, what are your long-term ambitions and plans for the organisation? What do you see in, say, five years' time?

So, in our strategic plan, what we've tried to do there is to talk about foundation commitments [correction: founding commitments], so maybe the things that we might prioritise in the next couple of years, and a lot of that is to do with the set-up of the organisation and building that trust and confidence in the organisation. There are parts of the legislation where there are things that we do need to achieve in the shorter term. So, those appear in our strategic plan as well: a new regulatory system—those sorts of things—and a learner engagement code.

But I think also in terms of the shorter term commitments, what we were keen to do is what we've described and talked about, growth commitments within our strategic plan, about where we want to be in the future. It has taken decades, hasn't it, to create some of the challenges that we're facing here in Wales? And some of those things aren't things that can be solved overnight—they're going to take time. But we're really, really keen that, if Medr is worth anything at all in terms of the set-up, there's the here and now, but we have ambitions about where we might want to take Wales in the future.

And I think it's important to note that we don't deliver, actually, to learners; it's our stakeholders and partners and providers that do that, but we have an important role here and a real opportunity in Wales, I think, to actually think about how we might want to do things differently in the future. We’ve got some challenges that we want to address. James, have you got anything to add?

I think very specifically in terms of the next couple of years, we’ve got some specific legislative things that we need to move on, and Simon mentioned the development of a new regulatory approach, which I think is a really significant change. It’s again taking a tertiary approach to the regulation of the sector, and also looking at the development of conditions of regulation, statement of interventions, and how we use the powers provided through the Tertiary Education and Research (Wales) Act 2022. So, that’s a very significant piece of work over the next two years, which touches actually a lot of the work of the organisation. So, from a quality, from a governance, from a sustainability perspective, it’s going to be really important.

Our first tranche of proposed conditions we’re likely to consult on in April, so we’re planning to consult on that first tranche of that new regulatory system, with a view to, then, that being in place by August 2027. The longer term commitments, I think, again, as we’ve set out in our plan—. I think, rightly, it’s important to say that we’ve got these things that we absolutely must do to make sure we can deliver on these longer-term commitments—so, increased participation being a key priority for us over the period of this five-year plan, ensuring that we have really robust data and indicators about what that means and that we’re aware of the consequences of what increased participation in one part of the sector may mean for others. So, those are the types of long-term ambitions that we’ve tried to capture in our plan.

Okay, thank you. Can I bring Natasha in now, please?

Thank you so much, Chair. Good morning, gentlemen. How is Medr going to measure whether it’s indeed achieving its aims set out in the strategic plan? Do you have any KPIs in place for seeing the productivity of the organisation itself?

So, if I start on that, obviously, we have a strategic plan, which is, in its very nature, high level, but we’re already working on the operational plan that will sit underneath that, and I think that’s a really important process in terms of thinking about what the particular KPIs might look like within that plan.

As James mentioned, we’ve got some key things that we want to do, and increasing participation at all levels, in terms of reducing the number of individuals not in education, employment and training, looking at participation in higher level education and skills are really important, but I think in that process of the operational plan, and again continuing the good engagement that we’ve had with stakeholders in producing that, that’s where we'll see some of the detail behind it. But, James, you’ve been leading on that; you may want to say something.

Yes. So, alongside our operational plan, we’re developing a measures and evaluation framework for how we’re delivering against that, and you’ll see some of the commitments, the short-term commitments, in our plan are around establishing baseline data that will support those measures. So, actually, alongside the operational plan, we’ll have a measures and evaluation framework, which, again, we’ll make public.

And how often are you planning on giving those reflections back to us or the public?

So, we’ll produce an annual report on the delivery of the commitments we’ve made in the plan.

Okay, fantastic. And you did mention about some of the stakeholders and their responses, so can you outline some of the main themes that came from the stakeholders in your draft strategic plan, and what changes have been made to the final plan as a consequence of those?

Sure, so if I kick off on that. So, there were—. We had some really great engagement in terms of sessions that we ran in north Wales and south Wales where we had stakeholders and providers from a whole breadth of the sector coming to engage with that and, obviously, a formal consultation process as well. We had 101 responses to the formal consultation. There were some themes within there, which I’ll just touch on briefly here. One was a theme around additional learning needs, which we recognised that, actually, we needed to firm up and beef up the strategic plan in that area, so that’s certainly something that we looked at there, with some additional commitments there.

There was a theme as well around developing social partnership and strengthening that within it, so that appears a little bit stronger within the strategic plan. Welsh language and Welsh-medium education was a significant theme, and, again, working in conjunction with the duty of the Coleg Cymraeg Cenedlaethol as the designated adviser to Medr, that was something that we’ve looked at very carefully again.

So, there were some main themes that we took away, adjusted the strategic plan, and that strategic plan is with Ministers at the moment. But, James, any more detail you want to add to that?

Yes. I think that’s right. I think the other one that we got back was around a global outlook from a Welsh perspective, not just in terms of international recruitment, but studying in Wales generally, and the opportunities that that provided for bringing research in and so on. So, I think those were probably the key themes that we felt that we absolutely need [correction: needed] to reflect in response to the consultation. I should say, though, that we had over 100 responses, which was great, I think, for the first consultation we've ever run, and, actually, there's a lot of support for the direction of travel that we've set in the organisation, I think the measured way that we were going about implementing the change, both in terms of those founding commitments, to make sure that we were not disrupting the sector in these difficult times, but also that long-term ambition that I've mentioned as well. So, I think there was a lot of positivity that came back through the consultation and the approach to the consultation that we took.

Thank you for that, James. Simon, you did mention Cardiff University in your introduction, and it would be remiss of me as a politician not to ask you the questions, but what is Medr's assessment of the current financial situation for universities in Wales as it stands, and what actions will Medr be taking now to support universities through the current financial challenges that they're facing?

It's a good question, and, obviously, we are very interested in all our institutions and their longer term sustainability as a regulator. So, we have regular conversations with each of our institutions. If I focus particularly on the stress that's on the HE sector at the moment, the challenges that are facing HE have been well documented over a period of time in terms of some of the externals like environment [correction: in terms of the external environment] that are creating particular challenges. We are monitoring very, very closely. We have regular meetings with the finance directors, chief operating officers and vice-chancellors as well of each of our universities to monitor that situation.

There are limits to what we can do. We are a regulator, but our job is to apprise Government, really, of the challenges that our HEIs are actually facing, and we know that many universities are going through transformational change at the moment to ensure their longer term sustainability in the future. Our interest as well is that that is done in a spirit of social partnership, so that staff and students and trade unions are consulted and worked with, and that social partnership theme is across the piece. Also, we're interested in learner protection plans as well, so, any changes that actually are made by universities, it's what that impact looks like for the student experience across the piece. But, again, James, you may want to add something in terms of the work that you've been doing.

I think, as a regulator, we work very closely with each individual institution to ensure that we can assure ourselves around the plans they're putting in place around financial sustainability, recognising that the position in Wales is no different to the rest of the UK in terms of the challenges, which are, obviously, well documented. But we not just meet regularly with the finance directors, the vice-chancellors and the chief operating officers there to understand that, but we also do an in-depth analysis of the financial statements, the student numbers, the forecast borrowing levels that each institution is undertaking so that we can fully understand the picture that's presented by each individual institution as part of our role as a regulator. In doing so, that really helps us to ensure that we're protecting the interests of learners, and, in any proposals that are brought forward, that is at the forefront of our thinking, whilst also making sure that, of course, we have a viable HE sector in Wales for the future.

Okay. We're all fully aware that Cardiff University is going through a 90-day consultation at present, and I appreciate what you've just said about being a regulator. Will you have any influence on that particular assessment made at the end of the 90-day period, or are you just going to let Cardiff University get on with it?

I think we need to recognise that universities are autonomous institutions and there are limitations to what we can do as a regulator, but along the themes that I've just mentioned in terms of our expectations around discussions that are in the spirit of social partnership, looking at the impact on learners and their experiences during that process of transition. You're right, it's in a process of consultation at the moment, and I think that that's something that we need to monitor and keep an eye on and make sure that that dialogue is a positive one to look at what those outcomes could look like. It is in a process of consultation and these are proposals at the moment.

Okay. My final question in relation to universities, and I'll go back to my series of questioning: does Medr anticipate that the available funding for research and innovation will be greater or less than allocated by Research England in proportion to population size?

It's a good question, and I think we're very keen to do what we can to support the sector in accessing even greater amounts, if you like, of funding [correction: even greater amounts of funding] to do the really important work that our universities do around R&I. They are drivers for economic growth in their region, they already do some really excellent and fantastic work. I attended an event organised by the Wales innovation network, and I was staggered, looking at the work that is happening collectively across our universities in Wales. I think what we're keen to see is that sense of collaboration, and Wales punching above its weight is something that we're very, very keen to support, so that they are able to access greater funding in the future.

Okay. Like I said, I'll go back to the strategic plan now. Could you update us on the status of the final strategic plan being published? Because your paper says that it was sent to Welsh Ministers in December and it's being considered by them, but the Minister told us a few weeks ago that they were, in fact, expecting to receive the final plan by January. So, any details you can give on that would be really appreciated.

Do you want to pick that up, James?

Yes. So, in the legislation, there was a requirement for us to submit the plan to Ministers by 15 December, so we did. So, we submitted the plan to Ministers then. We've had a couple of conversations, I know, with Welsh Government officials since, just to clarify a few aspects of what we provided, and that plan is now with the Minister for consideration and approval.

Okay. Thank you, Chair.

Thank you, Natasha. Earlier, you talked about the amount of research that universities do. You also used to have a lot of funding from the EU as well to carry out work. I've had a question that's come in saying that universities do a lot of research, but not many in Wales patent a lot of their findings and there's nothing on the Medr site regarding patent filing rates as a statistic. So, I thought that was quite a question, isn't it, a direction, so I just thought I'd ask that here on behalf of somebody who has e-mailed us.

Yes, okay. It's a good question. I haven't got a direct answer to that, if I'm totally honest with you, but we'll take that away and—

It's interesting.

Yes. It is really interesting in terms of another area that we can look at.

We're looking at funding.

Yes.

Yes. We can certainly write to the committee. We'll ask our director of research to consider that, if you like, and we can write to the committee with an update on what we do and what we know.

Thank you. That would be really good. Thank you. So, could we move on to Vaughan now, please, for the next set of questions?

Thank you, Chair. Just on the record, I was obviously a Minister during the time that the Bill was going through and a range of policy questions were obviously being made, but now Medr is operational.

There's an obvious change in having Medr, as an arm's-length organisation, dealing with a range of funding issues, some of which were in arm's-length bodies before, to be fair, others were directly within the Government. So, we've got decisions and budget allocations from Welsh Ministers for our draft budget scrutiny, and one of the things the committee has asked for is an established pattern of annual scrutiny with Medr to look both at the proposed budget allocations, annual report and accounts. It may be that the committee wants to see Medr more, or wants to see—. I mean, other arm's-length bodies like Natural Resources Wales and others regularly come in to see scrutiny committees. We just want to check that, from Medr's point of view, you're looking to establish a predictable, at least annual, pattern around budget time to come to this committee to both explain the choices you're proposing to make, as well as for this committee to be able to do its job in providing some accountability and scrutiny. I hope that's not a difficult question to answer.

No. I know James wants to come in, but, just briefly before James comes in, we welcome the transparency around what we're doing. It's a significant sum of money, and we realise that our accountability is to Ministers. But that transparency is something that's really important to us. James.

Yes. I guess, pre-empting this question, to a degree, the Medr board considered indicative allocations at its meeting in January, and we, of course, circulated those to the committee in advance of this meeting today. So, we've seen the recommendation also from the recent draft budget scrutiny, which we'll accept. And we'd like to work with the clerk to establish that regular pattern of understanding and information provision as part of your scrutiny of the Welsh Government's budget.

Okay. That's really helpful. That's what I thought you'd say; that's good. So, Medr has got a largely unhypothecated budget from the Government, but there are some areas that the Government expects to be funded. For example, there's a ring-fenced allocation on apprenticeships. Now, apprenticeships are something that every party in the Senedd will probably say something about in its manifesto, and will certainly ask questions to the Minister of, but you've got the budget responsibility. So, I think that's an example of where the Government expects there to be a particular allocation to meet wider objectives. So, I guess the question is: do you think the right balance has been struck in terms of what has been ring-fenced and what is left unhypothecated, as well as thinking about the issue over apprenticeships, which is in your budget note as a ring-fenced area? I guess the previous question was about higher education funding. There are choices there that a previous arm’s-length body used to make and there’s a certain sum of money to do that. So, I’m interested in how you see the balance that’s been struck, whether you want to use the examples I’ve set out or others.

Again, a really, really good question. We’ve got, as you say, a ring-fenced budget for apprenticeships, and I think, in that particular area, Government will set the policy of what they expect to see us deliver in terms of the management of that and what they expect for that money. So, I think that that’s something that we’re keen to obviously work with the Welsh Government on in terms of understanding what that policy and direction would be like in the future. There are questions there about—. I think the first fundamental question is what do we want apprenticeships to look like in Wales in the future, and then to think about the mechanics that we might put in operationally to enable that and ensure that happens. So, we have some areas that are ring-fenced, as you mentioned. That might change and evolve. As I say, we’re six months into operation and, over a period of time, that degree of hypothecation may change and develop. We’re conscious that some elements of the budget are coming from different departments, different areas in the Welsh Government, but that might evolve, I suppose, over a period of time. I know, James, you’ll want to come in on that as well.

Yes. I think the other thing, just to say, particularly around our proposed budget for this year, is that we have an established funding methodology that we've inherited, if you like, from both HEFCW and the Welsh Government, in terms of how we fund the tertiary education sector. And it's really important, going back to that point about smooth transition, that, in any changes that we make to that funding methodology, we understand the impact of that and also that we involve, engage and consult with the sector more broadly. So, in determining our allocations this year within the budget that we've been set and the ring fences and the steers we have from the Government around how we use that budget, we've used that existing methodology. Now, that is something, as I mentioned, I think, before, that we will be looking at through our operational plan and consulting and engaging on those methodologies in the future, which will provide opportunities to think about how we deliver against the long-term ambitions in the plan and the priorities set by the Government.

Sorry, if I could just—

In terms of the priorities set up by the Government, I think there's a—

Vaughan—sorry, did you want to come in, Simon?

I was just going to say that, moving forward, if you move money around, there are consequences of where you take that money from to move into another area. So, again, smooth transition has been our priority. But I think there are fundamental questions to ask there about how we're actually using a significant sum of money coming into post-16 education. There is more we could do with more money, and I'm sure the sector would say that as well. There are consequences if we move money around within that, and I think we need to be cognisant of that. And we will also want to consult and have a duty to work with the sector about what that could look like in the future and with the Government as well.

Okay.

No, I completely understand that and I think it's a fair point. Again, thinking about the higher education conversation we're having, the challenge—and I think it's the point you make—is if you move money into that budget, you've got to take it out of somewhere else. And if that's from Medr, then you'd be taking that money out of a different part of the post-16 system, which would have consequences elsewhere. I'm pleased you noted about the methodology being familiar. But my final question is just about the amounts now. I'm assuming, but it would be good if you could confirm, the amount is what you're expecting to receive albeit there have been some changes, because previous budget rounds have all been about how to manage reductions. There's a welcome change. It won't resolve every single funding pressure, but there is some more money, and apprenticeships, again, are an area where I was responsible for reducing the budget previously, because we needed to balance the overall budget, but now there's the welcome addition of money into the apprenticeships budget. So, as well as the methodology and that the funding is what you expected, are there any other areas you'd like to highlight for us, in addition to apprenticeships, where you've now got more than you might have expected, say, six months ago, and how that then goes into delivery in the sector that you've got responsibility for oversight with?

Do you want to kick off first?

I think the biggest area of our budget that we've seen an increase in is around participation, so we provided information to the Government around the number of enrolments in FE colleges on the back of the September date, and we are very pleased that we got an additional allocation to recognise that increased participation in FE colleges. So, that's approximately £21 million, I believe, that has gone in through our budget to recognise that increase in participation.

Another couple of areas where we received an increased budget share, again recognising some of the pressures more broadly across tertiary education, were in relation to things like pay parity and the well-established policy of ensuring pay parity in colleges with schools. So, those are kind of the areas where our budget has increased from what we have inherited, if you like, from the Welsh Government and HEFCW.

Okay. Thank you. That's the end of the questions from me for this section, Chair.

Okay. Thank you, Vaughan. Cefin, you wanted to come in on funding as well, didn't you?

Yes. Bore da. If I can just come in on the back of Natasha's earlier question about the broad financial—what some describe as a—crisis facing the university sector, do you agree that there is a funding crisis? That is my overall question, but, as a supplementary to that, what would Medr like to see happen in order to place the higher education sector on a more sustainable financial footing? Have you gone, or would you go, back to the Welsh Government and ask for more funding to support that particular sector?

If I can kick off on that, there is absolutely no doubt that universities across the UK and, indeed, in Wales are facing some of the most challenging times that they have faced. I listened to Professor Paul Boyle, the chair of Universities Wales, in his career saying that this is the most difficult time, and I agree with that assessment. As an educationalist, would I like to see more money coming in? Absolutely, of course I would. As I mentioned earlier, I am a product of what education has done for me, and having those opportunities for a wider cross-section of society is so fundamentally important in Wales. So, of course we would.

The difference, I suppose—. The HE system, as I am learning, is incredibly complex, and the link with the UK system is probably different from what we might see in the school sector or in the work of our FE colleges, now that it is intrinsically linked. We know that fees have not kept pace with inflation. In the last couple of years, in Wales there have been two increases in those fees. We recognise as well that that helps, but it isn’t the total picture. We have a systemic issue that we need to address across the UK to try and support that system, moving forward in the future.

There is absolutely no doubt in my mind about the key role that universities have as anchor institutions in their regions, in their communities, what they do for economic growth, what they do for individuals. And I think that there is a wider question there about what kind of university system we want in the UK and, indeed, in Wales.

In the same way that I mentioned giving information to the Welsh Government about increased participation in FE in September, we provide information to the Welsh Government on the position of our higher education institutions. Within a month of our establishment, we were in conversation with the Government on that position, around the sustainability in the short term and the challenges that some institutions are facing and the plans that they would need to put in place, but also in the longer term.

The kind of information that I think we provide does lead to the Minister making decisions, as she has this year already, around the £10 million in-year funding that’s going in as extra to the HE sector than perhaps what we were expecting when we were created, and, obviously, the increase in tuition fees. We recognise that those are quite difficult decisions, because there is an impact on the learners from the increase in tuition fees. But, from a regulatory perspective, I think that it is important that we make the case for the sector, in terms of the challenging situation in which it finds itself.

Okay. Diolch.

Okay. So, Cefin, would you like to move on to your questions regarding working relations?

Right. I am going to ask this next question in Welsh, if that is okay. It is clear that the remit of Medr is very broad. So, do you deal with one Welsh Government Minister or Cabinet Secretary, or do you deal with more than one of them, and how do you manage that process of having to engage with more than one Cabinet Secretary or Minister?

You are absolutely right that it is very broad, and, of course, I suppose, there are a range of Ministers that we will work with. The Minister for FE and HE, Vikki Howells, is probably the one that is there that oversees Medr, but, obviously, conversations with other Ministers as well are important. Jack Sargeant, for example, we've met recently—a joint meeting with Jack Sargeant and Vikki Howells—to look at some of the cross-cutting themes that might happen across there. It's always challenging, I suppose, when you're working with different departments, but I know that providers deal with different people. Some colleges, for example, are working with five local authorities and the challenges that that poses.

I think the thing for me is about that spirit of why we are doing this. It's about enhancing the opportunities for the people of Wales, and the more opportunities we have for joint conversations and creative thinking about what that could look like for the future, I think is really, really important. I think your question is a good one—through the mechanics of Government, structures and what we do, it's how do we actually hold on to that prize about joined-up thinking and doing what is best for the learners across the piece in Wales. James, is there anything you wanted to add?

Formally, we're really delighted that, at our quarterly monitoring meetings—accountability meetings—with the Welsh Government—are both Ministers who largely oversee our remit. Jack Sargeant and Vikki Howells, as Simon mentioned, both attend those meetings. And, of course, from an executive level, it's really important that we maintain contact with Welsh Government officials in both departments, not least around the different expenditure groups that we draw our budget from. So, we have regular engagement at that level as well.

If I could just come back to my earlier point, I think there's a wider piece as well. I would argue that the post-16 sector touches every area of Government. Everybody has an interest in how successful our post-16 area is because it services and does so much for all aspects of Welsh life.

Thank you very much. On to my next question: what structures have you put in place to ensure that you develop working relationships with various bodies within these different sectors in the tertiary sector? In truth, how do you overcome those tensions, those conflicts, that have traditionally existed in some elements of that tertiary sector in the past?

Talking specifically about providers and stakeholders within that space.

Yes. How do you involve different stakeholders and get over some of the tensions that traditionally have existed between them? Have you set up relationships, really?

It's a really, really good question. I think, again, my reflection on that is that, particularly when we did our stakeholder events around the strategic plan, and being in a room where we had ACL providers, college principals, vice-chancellors, people delivering adult community learning, apprenticeship providers in a room—and it's rare these days; even if we do get together, it's often on the screen—actually having those people physically in a room, it struck me the role that we have. I think I probably underestimated the importance of our ability to facilitate those discussions, because when you do get educationists in a room together in a whites-of-the-eyes conversation, we all want the same thing. We want the best opportunities for our learners. And I think the interesting question for us is then, in terms of how we organise things, how we fund, how we organise our structures, do we enhance competition, or is there a way in which we can incentivise more collaboration and working together.

And I do understand that competitive element. If you take the world of HE, for example, it is a competitive market-driven market, isn't it, really, in terms of those choices. But I think we have a real opportunity in Wales if we hang on to that principle of doing what is right for learners—learner need ahead of institutional need. If we can hold on to that principle, there are areas where it's easier to overcome those areas of competition, and maybe there's something for us in that in terms of how we operate. Do we encourage competition or do we encourage collaboration? And I think, for us to make the most of what we have in Wales as a small, agile nation with a population of 3 million, collaboration and working together are absolutely key. I think your question is spot on in terms of that. That's a sweet spot of where we need to get to.

In that gathering you described there of the vice-chancellors and college principals and so on, did that include sixth forms as well?

Yes, we had good representation. We had headteachers and local authorities there as well. And again, I'm fully aware; I've been the head of a provider as well and am fully aware of the tensions that sometimes come out there. But again, there are some examples across Wales where there's really good collaboration, where people are working together and institutions are working together, departments are working together for the betterment of learners. I think that's something that's really critical moving forward.

Right. My final question for now: we have touched on the situation with Cardiff University already. I just wanted to ask you for your response to the announcement that we heard last week on the potential loss of 400 jobs and the disappearance of some courses.

Obviously, as I said earlier, we're acutely aware of the sensitivities and the difficulties around this. I can speak personally about this. I've been in a situation where I've had a contract that's coming to an end or whatever, so I'm fully aware when people have bills to pay and families to look after that this is a really worrying time for people. I really understand that and get that.

There are parameters in terms of us as a regulator, but obviously, as I said earlier, we're really interested in that we want to see those conversations and consultation happening through a spirit of social partnership, for more players around the table in terms of working in that way. We are interested in what happens to learners and what the learner protection plans are about, any proposals—that's something that we're really interested in. But as a regulator as well, we're also interested in organisations thinking about their longer term sustainability for the future. Obviously we want that to happen in a way that is mindful and considerate in terms of how that is handled.

In terms of curriculum choices, there are limits to—. Again, I come back to universities being autonomous organisations. We cannot direct a university, to say, ‘You must do subject x or y.’ However, one of the things that we are interested in doing is mapping what that curriculum provision might look like across Wales, and to apprise Government of what that looks like, and what the potential consequences might be if there are subjects that are lost. But, again, I would stress—you mentioned Cardiff University—they're in a consultation period and those are the sorts of things that we'd expect to be discussed during that consultative period. James, did you have anything to add?

I think only just to add, as you'd expect, extensive and ongoing engagement, not just with Cardiff University, but all institutions in Wales, about their plans for responding to the current financial situations that they find themselves in. They're all different in terms of what their plans are and what they need to do. I think, as Simon said, a key role for us is understanding that provision, informing, then, the debate publicly around what that provision should look like, and then if there were decisions around funding, for example, to incentivise institutions to do something, we have a formal role in seeking to secure provision in particular areas of Wales around particular subjects, if that was a decision made in the future.

If I can just follow that last point, because I think I need better clarification about the difference in the roles that you have as a regulator, which I completely understand, but you also provide funding as well. So, does that cause some conflict or tensions within your organisation in terms of, for example, the higher education sector, which is facing a funding crisis?

I don't think so. I think they're quite complementary, actually, the roles. Because if you think about what we're here to achieve, prioritising the interests of learners, we have a role around how we regulate the sector to ensure that those interests are looked after, and then we have a funding role to do things like increase participation and widen access and support mental health, and so on and so forth. So, I think they're actually complementary functions that we have as an organisation to achieve our and the Minister's statement of priorities around those long-term ambitions.

I think, just to come back to the specific point, it is really important that we understand provision in Wales more generally, so that we can inform that debate across all subject areas, and that we can enable an informed discussion about how all parts of the tertiary sector respond to the skills priorities that we have, and our economy and our employers have, so that we're giving opportunities for people to follow their pathway, but also to respond to the needs of society more generally.

Okay. Diolch.

Okay, thank you, Cefin. Did you say earlier that you also have conversations across the UK as well, with other providers and partner organisations?

We do keep an eye on what's happening over the border, obviously. Particularly when you talk about England, it's bigger, there are more providers. Obviously, things that happen in England, although education is devolved to Wales, have an impact and an influence on the shape of things in Wales, so that's something that's really important that we keep an eye on.

Okay, thank you. Thank you very much for attending the session today. You will be sent a transcript for checking in due course. Simon, you will be returning for the second session, I believe.

Yes.

Okay. Thank you, James, for being with us today. We're going to take a short break now, until 10:40. We'll go into private.

Diolch yn fawr, thank you.

Diolch yn fawr, thank you.

Welcome back. We will now be moving on to item 3, routes into post-16 education and training—evidence session 3. So, welcome back, Simon, chief executive officer of Medr.

Diolch.

And also Rhian Edwards, who's the executive director for policy at Medr.

Morning.

Welcome. So, I'm just going to start off with the first questions. We've heard that there is competition and a conflict of interest between schools with sixth forms and further education colleges. As Medr is now responsible for both of those, what needs to be done to address this issue and encourage schools to put learners' interests first? Who'd like to start with that?

Shall I start and Rhian can come in? I think it's interesting, actually, following on from the first session in terms of some of the things that we were talking about there, and again I think it's so important that we get to that position of learner need ahead of institutional need. And there is a tension; there is a conflict around that. But I think in terms of what we're doing in the post-16 space, that's our domain in terms of the majority of the work that we do there, but again, it's really important to think about connectivity with other parts of the system as well, so particularly thinking about pre 16 and how we work with stakeholders because, obviously, we'll want good transition. We want learners on the right pathway that is right for them.

So, again, there's something there around how we look at future funding methodologies about how we can incentivise collaboration and working together and doing those things, rather than looking at a competition. But we understand it. I understand it, being a former head of an institution. The sustainability of your institution is paramount. But I think, above all of that, what we need to hang on to is that principle of doing what is right for the learners, and that's an important space for us to operate in as well. Rhian.

Just to add to that, for example, a really successful intervention that we've put into the sector is our transitions activities. We've put in about £3 million, which is shared across schools and colleges, and the purpose of that funding is, really, to drive greater collaboration between the school sector and the college sector in terms of making sure that we really raise the awareness of those post-16 options for our learners. So, we've seen some really interesting activities in terms of awareness days, college taster days, et cetera, and the feedback that we've had is that schools have really valued the access to that flexible funding to do activities they wouldn't ordinarily do. From the college perspective, what they really valued is that increased access to those school learners, because, ultimately, what we're all after is the opportunity for those learners to get that impartial advice and guidance, so that they're fully informed to go into their post-16 options.

I was going to ask about that £3 million of funding, so I'm glad that you mentioned it now. So, awareness days, college days when they can go and visit the college and build that relationship up. What do you think—because we were having discussions as well earlier—about bringing people into schools or colleges, so that they can have a look at what jobs are available out there, having that relationship as well? I know schools have mentioned that it's very difficult to fit that time in to do that. So, is that part of that in any way? Is that part of an awareness day?

As part of that programme of activity, some of the colleges and schools run summer programmes as well, which obviously give a little bit more time for learners to go in and try, for example, different vocational pathways. But I think in terms of the balance of time, we've got to remember that in the 14 to 16 guidance that was issued in relation to the Curriculum for Wales framework guidance, there's a clear expectation that we need to be building in time to support learners with understanding what their post-16 routes are, and that's all of their routes, not just in terms of the school route, but in terms of colleges, apprenticeships, et cetera. So, the education system really does need to be embracing that and providing that time to give to those learners to ensure that they are fully informed.

So, from 14 to 16, that's when they're making those choices about their GCSEs, et cetera. So, you're saying that that's really when we should be looking at giving that guidance regarding career pathways.

But even broader than that, if you look at the opportunities that are afforded through the introduction of the Curriculum for Wales, and particularly the careers and work-related experience pillar, the whole point of that framework is to be exciting our young people in terms of pathways and career opportunities that are available to them. And then, as they start to think about their choices going through 14 to 16 and then post 16, they can really think about what are those educational pathways that will support their career ambitions.

Okay, thank you. One of Medr's duties under the Act is to encourage participation in tertiary education. In your view, what roles do careers advice and guidance and work experience play in experiencing this duty?

Shall I start? So, it's absolutely critical. Obviously, an important role for Careers Wales in that, and like all organisations facing challenging financial circumstances, it's thinking about priorities and where we might want to target that resource. But again, coming back to Rhian's earlier point, having those pathways really clear to young people, as they come through the system, is incredibly important. There's often some myth busting, maybe, that needs to go on in terms of preconceived ideas about what certain routes might be like. So, the more that we can do in that space, to actually open up the eyes of young people in terms of the opportunities. So many people now are moving into—. You know, the world is changing so quickly, isn't it, and the opportunities in terms of what parents and carers might think are job opportunities or whatever are quite different now, being in a very fast-moving world. So, it's important to keep up with that and to make sure that young people are actually aware of what the career opportunities are in different pathways.

Yes. Just to add to that, if I reflect on Medr's role, one of our key ambitions is to bring coherence to the system, and a big part of that is to create a system that's more navigable and understandable for learners, parents and those individuals who are supporting those. So, we can have the advice and we can have the guidance, but we need a system that people really understand and that is really clear in terms of how, obviously, they take that pathway to support their ambitions.

How would you make that available, do you think, so that it's accessible for parents and learners, and everybody involved in that advice? How would you make available the advice of options and understanding what's available out there?

There are some really good initiatives out there currently. In north Wales, for example, in terms of the post-16 collaborative partnership up in north Wales, they've created a really interesting website where there's a lot of information. The Careers Wales website and portal has huge amounts of information for individuals. We're not suffering from a lack of information; what we're probably suffering from is how individuals are pointed towards the relevant sources of information. So, from our perspective as Medr, we don't see a role for us to duplicate that sort of provision of information; we just need to make sure that young people, and obviously those supporting them in making their choices, are pointed in the direction of where that information sits.

We've heard earlier how work experience is really important for many young people as well, to actually experience what is out there, rather than just go down the academic route, especially for people, maybe, with neurodiversity as well. To actually live that experience rather than just have things on paper would make such a difference for them at a young age. So, just your thoughts on that.

I think work experience can inspire people into particular areas, but also help people to decide what they don't want to do as well, and that's an important element. The other area is that, when we focus on young people and what they may want to do, there are quite a lot of influences around those choices. So, I think, for me, there's maybe a piece of work there around parents and carers, and teachers in school can be quite influential in terms of the choices that they're encouraging people to make. So, there's a whole piece there, I think, not just about young people and their choices, but the people around them as well. But, I think, if we can develop that work experience even further, that's always going to be helpful in terms of people making decisions about their career aspirations, and finding the right fit for them.

Just to reflect, obviously, we're responsible for provision post 16. So, in terms of work experience opportunities for those individuals, 16 to 18, whether you're in a sixth form or in college, we funded, last academic year, probably around about £1 million of additional funding into the system, for those organisations to run work experience opportunities alongside the full-time learning of an individual. But what we did—and I think this is really important—is we didn't make it compulsory. I think if you move into a space where you make work experience compulsory, we have challenges in terms of the economic make-up in Wales, in terms of small and medium-sized enterprises and where those individuals can get that experience from. So, we really wanted to make sure that we had the funding available where people could take up those opportunities and align it to the particular education pathway that they were experiencing.

Okay. Thank you. Your paper says that Medr is committed to reducing the number of young people who are not in education, employment or training—NEET. What actions are you going to take to achieve this?

I can pick that one up. I mean, ultimately, we are sitting on a really persistent NEET figure in Wales, particularly for our 16 to 18-year-olds, which, to be quite frank, is unacceptable. But it's complex. We know that there are a really wide range of factors that are contributing to this situation, and there are multiple interventions that we need to think about. Medr doesn't have the solution to be able to address this problem; this is a system problem and, therefore, we need true collaboration across all organisations working within the system to address this. You're right, we have a duty to encourage participation within the Tertiary Education and Research (Wales) Act 2022, and, actually, within our strategic plan, we're very much committed to working in partnership with organisations such as local authorities, Careers Wales, to encourage more pre-16 learners to transition into post-16 options, and also we have committed in our strategic plan to set targets for participation, particularly for those individuals who might be under-represented in tertiary education. We have seen this year, for example, a really interesting increase in full-time learners going into the further education system. So, we've had about 5,700 additional learners into the system this academic year, and we worked really closely with Welsh Government to be able to bring in-year funding to obviously recognise that growth. What we have seen in terms of the pattern of those learners is far more of those learners are coming in at level 1 and below, and level 2, not necessarily that natural transition into level 3. We need to understand that. We need to understand that more, what's driving that pattern, and how then we can ensure that the appropriate pathways then for those individuals are there.

We've also got other programmes that are particularly targeted at supporting participation. So, Welsh Government has recently passed over the oversight of the junior apprenticeship programme, which is a vocational programme for 14 to 16-year-olds. The policy driver behind that is very much around participation for those individuals who are on the cusp of falling out of mainstream curriculum. So, it's about reigniting the passion and enthusiasm for those learners in education by giving them a different type of vocational route, and we're seeing that that's really successful, and, actually, the success of that programme is that those individuals are then transitioning into mainstream vocational education within a college setting post 16.

If I could add, Chair, the junior apprenticeship programme is something I'm quite familiar with from my previous role, and I'm a massive fan. We're delighted to have responsibility for that. The outcomes, in terms of where these learners are going, are really impressive, and I think if we can dial that up that would really help the situation around those not in education, employment or training.

I agree. I've heard some really good examples of that. So, yes. I would agree with that. Thank you. Can we move on to Natasha now, regarding participation in higher education? Thank you.

Thank you so much, Chair. Good morning, both, once again. Your paper says that there may be changes to the choices that learners are making at post 18, but urges caution at drawing conclusions from the available data. So, could you please share with the committee why you've come to this conclusion?

Are you okay with that?

Yes, I'll take that one. I think a big part of our role is looking at the data, but more sophisticated and comprehensive analysis of the data. Certainly, what we're seeing, is that—. And, as the paper said, in terms of urging caution, in terms of drawing conclusions from that, we don't believe that the data is conclusive enough to suggest that there's that real, demonstrable shift from one part of the tertiary education sector to another, and, actually, we have a significant role as Medr in terms of improving our understanding of that data and the choices that learners are actually making.

We know that there are issues in terms of, obviously, the gap between Wales and the UK in terms of those going into higher education has gradually widened since about 2006, but we need to understand that; we need to understand what is driving that, and understanding what is driving that differentiation in terms of the Wales context. We know that the entry rate for 18-year-old Welsh domiciled students this year was slightly up from last year, but it's still lower than the past three years. Again, we need to do far more work to actually understand the factors that are influencing this.

And, actually, on the twenty-fifth of this month, we will be publishing a statistical analysis of progression from year 11 to different types of tertiary education, and looking at, obviously, the breakdown between different learner characteristics, so we'd be really pleased to send that to the committee as part of, obviously, this evidence inquiry.

Thank you. Thank you so much, Chair.

Thank you. It's been raised with me by somebody that's helping a young person through an apprenticeship that that young person is unable to carry on with his A-levels at the same time. It's either apprenticeship or A-levels. Is that unusual, or is that just the provider who's helping him with that?

I can take that. We've got to remember that an apprenticeship is actually an employed form of education and training, so the individual would be employed by the employer and then undertaking an apprenticeship as part of their employment. So, it would be quite rare—

Because it feels it's either/or, and they were wondering whether he could do that part time and still do his A-levels. Is that something that has been raised with you as an issue before?

No, it hasn’t been raised with us as an issue before, because, obviously, an apprenticeship framework has qualifications embedded in the framework, at, obviously, the respective level that that individual is undertaking. So, it would be quite rare, and I look to Simon on this, in terms of from a college perspective—

It does sound quite unusual, but we’d be interested in that specific case; we could maybe have a look at that.

Yes, I will write to you on that. Thank you.

Yes, that would be really interesting.

It might be just another offer that maybe some people might like to take. And I think funding was either for staying on with A-levels or doing an apprenticeship, but you can’t do both or split it—something like that. But I will write to you on that one. Thank you.

Yes, I think it’s interesting to reflect on, though, the composition of the learning programmes that our young people are taking. So, I think gone are the days where you’re just—. So, for example, in a college setting, it might be that a learner is taking a combination of A-levels and BTEC qualifications in respect of a vocational sort of pathway. So, there is a more agile and flexible kind of programme of learning that individuals are picking up today.

Yes, and then they can earn a little bit of money while they’re studying et cetera, and learn on the job. Cefin, Welsh-medium provision.

Thank you very much. I’ll be asking my question in Welsh. But before I come to the question I wanted to ask about Welsh-medium provision, I just want to pick up that final point that you made, Rhian, regarding the concern that so few are going on to study A-level, and that the numbers going on to universities have remained static, more or less, over the past few years. You said you were going to undertake an assessment of this. Is that assessment in train, and when are we likely to see the results of that assessment work?

Yes, that’s something that we’re considering within our operational plan in terms of the data intelligence that we need to pull together for that. I would have thought that, within a foundational commitment term [correction: within a founding commitment term], around two years, but that would be an urgent piece of work for us to really understand that.

In terms of data, we are not lacking rich data. What we need is a more intelligent understanding of that data, and that is something that we are committing to do really quickly, because we need that baseline to, then, obviously, build the work patterns that we’re taking forward.

Thank you for that. The question I was going to ask also was with regard to Welsh-medium provision. We know, and we’ve heard plenty of evidence of this, that there is limited provision post-16, and that that is a cause of frustration for many, and that it limits the options available too. We’ve also heard, of course, about Welsh-medium schools being discontent that students go on to colleges that have promised Welsh-medium provision, and that provision isn’t there according to what was promised originally. So, how is the Coleg Cymraeg Cenedlaethol contributing to this conversation and to our understanding in terms of ensuring that there is that continuity through the medium of Welsh, and that it’s a robust provision in post-16 institutions?

If I kick off on that. So, you mentioned the Coleg Cymraeg Cenedlaethol, which is obviously the designated body to advise Medr. We have regular conversations with them. Outside of that, though, I’ve met a few times now with CYDAG, the body that represents Welsh-medium schools—really productive conversations, sharing some of their concerns and some of the challenges that they’re facing, but also to get into talking about some of the opportunities for the future as well.

We’ve got a duty to encourage demand and participation in Welsh-medium and bilingual education across the piste in post-16 education. And we’re acutely aware as well, that, in some small settings, sometimes rural settings, in Wales, offering that full choice is a real challenge. But that’s again about the creative thinking. And you touched earlier in the previous session around that tension between competition and trying to enhance the opportunities, and this is definitely a space, I think, where there needs to be more joined-up thinking to promote those opportunities for young people, to make sure that they are getting the kinds of opportunities that learners through the English medium will get.

Now, that’s a real big challenge across the patchwork quilt of Wales, in terms of rural areas and urban areas. But I think there’s an important dialogue to be had then about what that could look like, and how we can enhance that through partnership working. There are some interesting collaboration models happening across Wales, sometimes between partner schools, sometimes between schools and colleges and other providers. But that’s something that we need to look at. Apprenticeships are something I'm interested in as well, about the Welsh-medium opportunities through apprenticeships as well and what that can look like in the future in terms of enhancing those opportunities. But I'm sure Rhian might want to say something on that.

Yes. The only thing I was going to add is that in our strategic plan we have committed to develop a national plan, which will, obviously, set out how we intend to increase and improve the provision and promotion of Welsh-medium education and assessment within tertiary education. What we've committed to do is very much a collaborative process in terms of putting that plan together, and also, importantly, we've been working really closely with Welsh Government officials in terms of how that plan for tertiary education will sit alongside the national framework, which will come out of the Welsh Language and Education (Wales) Bill proposals, to make sure that we're—. Again, it's about coherence, making sure that providers understand how we're all working to the same policy and strategic aims for our Welsh language ambitions within Wales.

Okay, all right. Thank you.

Thank you, Cefin. Could I bring in Vaughan now?

Yes. Thank you, Chair. I think a large part of the questions I was going to ask has been answered in the discussions before Cefin around young people not in education, employment or training and particularly your comments around junior apprenticeships. I note in particular, Rhian, what you said about the fact that we don't lack for data when it comes to the information available to you. So, my question was, really, about what you say in your paper around outcomes being lower for learners from less advantaged backgrounds. And it's really about whether there are particular background characteristics that appear to have more of an impact than others, then not just about what the data says, but then, obviously, how, then, a policy answer is developed that takes in a range of stakeholders, both at pre-16 as well as afterwards. So, I'm interested if there is more you can say about what in particular, from the data, suggests that there are less advantageous prospects for our least advantaged learners. And if not, I'd be interested in what you're looking to do with the data available to try to get there, and that obviously requires work with the pre-16 sector. But it's good to hear junior apprenticeships being mentioned so positively today in any event.

I'm happy to take that, Chair. Interestingly, we have again a duty to promote equality of opportunity through, obviously, increasing participation in tertiary education. And you're right, Vaughan, the challenges are quite significant, particularly in relation to equity. So, we know that the rate of progression from year 11 into post-16 education is lower for those learners who are eligible for free school meals, for example. We know that, in terms of overall progression into the post-16 sector, those living in the 10 per cent most deprived areas of Wales are least likely to progress in comparison to those living in the 10 per cent least deprived. We know, interestingly, in terms of patterns, there is quite significant variation in learner choice in terms of the type of post-16 pathways that they are choosing, depending on where you live in Wales, for example, and we know that outcomes are lower for those individuals who are living in deprived areas. And there are significant, again, system challenges in terms of how we respond to that. A key part of our role is about understanding those factors that are influencing those gaps in equity, and then particularly how we can use some of our regulatory levers in relation to quality, in relation to learner experience, in relation to equity, and how we can address some of those gaps.

Okay. Vaughan.

So, having set out that there's that broad challenge—so, free school meals, a whole range of other things, understanding the broad nature—is there anything within that that tells you more or less, or is it even as simple as can you identify school cohorts or communities that do better or worse? Because some of what we're always trying to do is not just to understand and describe the nature of the challenge, and in overall terms we can do that, but some of the answers, for example, junior apprenticeships, giving people opportunities to get a real qualification with prospects not just in further vocational education but actually the opportunity to work and earn a living and not fall off the pathway, in the way that I know that primary and secondary school heads can often say, 'These are the cohort of learners I'm most worried about' and the ones who will engage in parts of the system outside of, if you like, the normal path into work and what it means? So, I'm interested in if there's more you're able to understand, or if there are more specific local factors, because we're always interested in inspiring leadership and what it does, but also we then want a system, and to have a systematic approach that understands what the data tells us and are there interventions that are more likely to make sense. And I appreciate that the outcomes, for post-16, all come back to the outcomes at pre-16. It's always possible to have second- and third-chance learning, but our biggest challenge is getting first-chance learning right as well. And if not, I’m really interested in how you’re working with partners to understand this, because I’ve not met a single primary or secondary school head who doesn’t want to improve outcomes for their learners and doesn’t want to see them go on to achieve what their talent demands that they could do, as opposed to some of those external factors.

Do you want to take that?

Yes, I can pick up some of that. It’s complex, as you’ve just set out.

It is, indeed.

It’s incredibly complex. In relation to data and, obviously, supporting the interventions that we want to take forward as an organisation, we want to be a data-informed decision-making organisation. I think the key for us, as I’ve said, is that we’re not lacking in terms of the richness of the data; we need more sophisticated, comprehensive analysis of that data in terms of what it is telling us, particularly as you’ve said, Vaughan, in terms of whether there are specific issues affecting certain cohorts of learners, particularly at a place-based level. One of the things that we recognise is that there are gaps in the data, however, in terms of when learners are no longer engaging with the education system, when those learners are, obviously, NEET. And that increases the volatility of the data. So, we need to get better in terms of understanding how we can track the destination of those individuals so that we don’t lose sight of, obviously, the factors influencing those.

The statistical analysis that we’ll be publishing on 25 February, I think, will be particularly helpful in terms of looking at those factors and statistics in terms of progression from year 11, and particularly looking at the learner characteristics and looking at trends in terms of the specific characteristics of those individual learners that are affecting the pathways and the destinations of those individuals out of year 11. We work really closely, for example, with other organisations that pull sophisticated data together—for example, the Higher Education Statistics Agency, Jisc. We are not the only organisation that is pulling the data and intelligence together. So, we have a responsibility to work collaboratively with those organisations to understand what that data is providing to us in terms of intelligence of learner activity.

If I could, Chair, just add to that, I think that it's recognising that there may be some common challenges that we see across Wales, but actually some of the answers and solutions may not be a one-size-fits-all because some of the challenges are bespoke. And I'm interested in where those hotspots are in particular areas of Wales and what particular interventions might work there. But the flipside of that is that there are some good programmes happening, some really good interventions. So, there is something there around finding some of the solutions that people are already finding and making sure that those lessons are shared across Wales.

Okay. I think we need to leave it there, but I'd be interested in the statistics you referred to coming out towards the end of February and how that will help to further inform our inquiry into post-16 access and success. Thanks very much.

Diolch.

Thank you. Natasha, we've covered data there. Would you like to come in with anything?

Yes, please, if that's okay. Thank you so much, Chair. Following on from what Vaughan has just said to you and asked you, how exactly will you go about analysing the data that you've got? You said that you have quite a lot of it, and obviously you mentioned that there are certain gaps, particularly with capturing young people leaving education. You mentioned hotspots as well. So, how exactly are you going to be capturing this data and making sure that no-one slips through the net, going forward, now?

I think that's one of our challenges. We are looking at our data-capture processes as an organisation and how we enhance those. We have a data intelligence team internally within the organisation. We have a social research team—well, I say 'team'; we've got a social researcher at the moment, Heledd, who is actually helping us to think about what our social research function as an organisation needs to look like, actually, seeing that we're such a young organisation. And we also work in close partnership with the Welsh Government and, obviously, the knowledge and analytical services team there to make sure that we're all working to the same end. Interestingly, we've just been invited onto the Welsh Government participation board, which is an internal governance mechanism to think about what the broader participation policy issues are that we need to look at, and data is a significant consideration there. So, we're making sure that we are working collaboratively with those partner organisations to pull all of that together.

Okay. Careers Wales have said that they presented Medr with a prototype of an all-Wales data hub. So, I'd really be interested to know what your views are on this and if it's something that you're likely to be going forward with, particularly in relation to this hub.

They haven't presented it to us yet; it's in the diary for the next couple of weeks, but we have active conversations with Careers Wales and Nikki and Nerys there. We've discussed it, we understand what the data hub is, we understand what intelligence that is pulling together. One of the things that we need to consider when we have that conversation in terms of looking at the prototype is how it aligns to our existing data and, obviously, how then we can bring the complementarity of that and understand the intelligence and analysis that we can pull together.

Thank you so much, Chair.

Okay. Thank you, Natasha. That brings us to the end of this session. Thank you for answering all the questions. So, you will be sent a transcript for checking in due course. And we’re going to take a short break now to bring in the next set of witnesses. So, we’ll just go into private, while we do that. Thank you very much.

Okay, we've returned to our public session. We're now on agenda item 4, which is the fourth evidence session for our inquiry. I'm very pleased to welcome Nerys Bourne, who is the director of customer strategy and service development at Careers Wales, and Mark Owen, who is head of services to stakeholders with Careers Wales. You're welcome.

Good morning.

So, I'm going to start with the first question: would you say that the majority of, if not all, careers advice and guidance is provided by Careers Wales through partnership agreements that you have with schools?

I'll kick off on that one. As the national careers service for Wales, we are remitted by the Welsh Government to provide that statutory duty that young people have access to impartial careers guidance—young people from 14 to 19. That’s our provision, so, yes, that is part of our role. But there is, obviously, another element to careers support in schools. Schools have a responsibility for delivering the careers education, if you like—so, in the Curriculum for Wales, that’s the careers and work-related experience, CWRE for short. So, it’s the responsibility of schools to deliver that element as part of the curriculum from three to 16.

Okay. Thank you. And how would explain the variation in the information provided to learners across Wales, when it's provided? So, Careers Wales, as you said, is a centralised body that is remitted by the Welsh Government, but we've heard that there is a variation in information that's provided?

Okay, if I focus on what we deliver in Careers Wales, we've got a delivery model that is delivered across all schools in Wales, and that's in secondary schools and special schools, and we work with pupil referral units and EOTAS as well, and support young people who are educated at home. So, that's a delivery model—that's delivered in any school across Wales. So, there wouldn't be a variation other than that the guidance is tailored for the local needs. So, there's a careers adviser based in every one of those institutions who provides the same service. So, we've got a tailored service. So, every young person in year 11 will be offered the opportunity to sit with their careers adviser and have a one-to-one impartial guidance session.

We also have a targeted approach as well. So, those young people who may not progress as well as their peers, depending on certain characteristics, get enhanced support. So, those young people who are in receipt of free school meals, poor attenders, those at risk of becoming NEET, young carers, people who have experienced care, EOTAS, additional learning needs, they get the targeted support, which means they get that extra hand-holding, if you like, from our careers advisers.

What's the uptake of that offer amongst young people, and how do you follow up with learners who don't take up the offer with you?

The uptake is, if young people are attending school, they'll get that support. There is an issue with some people. I mentioned that those who are poor attenders are part of that group. It's then a case of working in partnership with the schools and local authorities to try and re-engage those young people and make sure that they access the service from Careers Wales.

We have an offer that all young people will be seen for a guidance interview in year 11, or before they leave compulsory school. In this current academic year, we're just under 70 per cent penetration rate, obviously with several months to go, so that gives you an indication of the sort of take-up.

In terms of your question about the variance in careers information, I think it's important to recognise that career support under that kind of banner has got many different streams. So, you've got careers education, which is the remit of schools, and then you've got careers information, which is the provision of basic information about labour market information, progression routes and so on. You've got careers advice, where you're trying to help people to interpret that information, and lots of people are involved in that—schools, teachers, parents, peers. And then you've got careers guidance, which is where Careers Wales come in, I guess, as professionally qualified level 6 advisers, and that's far more of a deeper intervention. We are probing, challenging and checking, really, the decision-making skills of the young person, so you're not just providing information. So, I think it's important to recognise the different elements of support.

And in terms of the variance across Wales, unfortunately, all schools will have different levels of importance placed upon careers education. So, some schools really value it and they have outstanding practice, careers lessons, young people learning about LMI, lots of employer engagement, but then, unfortunately, there are schools for which careers education is not important. Some schools don't even have careers leads and, therefore, you get variance. So, I would say there's a fairly standard offer as far as Careers Wales is concerned, but the uptake of that offer and the extent to which schools value and focus on careers as a kind of generic support system will very much vary.

Okay. So, following on from that, your paper says that, in response to a survey, 45 per cent of your careers advisers reported that there can be conflicts of interests between schools with sixth forms and further education colleges. So, what, in your view, can be done, and by whom, to address this issue and encourage schools to put learners’ interests first?

Well, I think if you look back over—. Well, certainly, I’ve been a careers adviser for 25 years, and the issue around the 11 to 16 versus 11 to 18 bias has been there for that period of time. If you look back over some of the Estyn inspections, for example, over the last 10 to 15 years, it always picks up on that as an issue. I would actually say that some of the policy directives that are coming out of the Welsh Government now, we think, have real potential. So, the idea that CWRE is a cross-cutting theme from three to 16 we think is a massive step forward. Formerly, careers education was only a statutory part of the curriculum from year 9 onwards, and we know, and all the research tells us, that young people make stereotypical limiting career decisions by the time they leave primary school. So, if we can get careers education right from three onwards, then that’s got real potential.

The other major step forward as far as we’re concerned is the most recent 14 to 16 guidance issued to schools, and I think, going back to my earlier point in terms of the variance in careers education support in schools, the 14 to 16 guidance now asks schools specifically to allocate curriculum time for reflections on learning and post-16 planning, and also qualifications to increase breadth—so, things like the new skills for work units, skills for life units, personal projects, and so on. So, there’s going to be a real focus on schools in that 14 to 16 phase to do a lot more around transition planning than they have previously.

The other interesting development, I think, is, as you know, Welsh Government is out for consultation at the minute in terms of what data are we going to expect schools to put into the public domain, and I think if we can actually make schools publish data on things like access to work experience, access to guidance, time spent on transition planning, then that will make the whole system more accountable and make it less about trying to just fill places in certain sectors, I guess.

Okay. So, to what extent does poor quality information and support provided to learners in schools result in the likelihood of young people becoming not in education, employment or training, NEET? Is it harder for these young people to then re-engage with the education system once they've left school at 16?

I think, in terms of young people not having the right information and then becoming NEET, there's evidence to show the positive impact that careers guidance has on young people's decisions and their positive progression, then, into their next career path. There was a report that the Wales Institute of Social and Economic Research and Data did back in 2022, I think, and they looked at the impact of careers guidance and that, if a young person had careers guidance, they were I think it was 32 per cent more likely go on to a positive outcome. They looked specifically at young people in receipt of free school meals, and that, essentially, then increased to 48 per cent.

We've also done some work supporting—. I mentioned earlier that we work with elected home-educated young people, and, in our report, looking at the destination of those who'd engaged with us and had that 1:1 support, 82 per cent were more likely, then, to go into a positive destination than those who hadn't had it. So, there's clear evidence linking to careers guidance, and also, if young people have engaged in employer engagement events as well, if they've had work experience or had any activities where employers are involved, they're more likely not to become NEET. So, there's plenty of evidence to support that having those experiences and having that career support has a positive impact.

Thank you. I'm just going through the report. In 2021, Welsh Government began a pilot scheme funding Careers Wales to support learners in years 10 and 11 to access work experience placements with the intention of reducing youth unemployment. In June 2023, the Welsh Government announced the scheme would continue into 2023-24, so Careers Wales's evidence to the Economy, Trade and Rural Affairs Committee, who are doing the inquiry as well, says it's only offered across five local authorities currently, and recommends Welsh Government fund the offer for young people across all local authorities in Wales. So, that seems to be working well, is it?

Yes. Do you want me to say a bit more about that? So, the tailored work experience project was part of the renew and reform post-COVID education plan. We were funded to place 500 young people into a tailored work experience placement, so targeting key stage 4 learners. We were given data from Welsh Government on attendance levels in each local authority and free school meal levels, and we targeted, if you like, the top two schools in each local authority to try and place young people. So, those 500 places were successfully delivered, and then the extension of funding was to deliver another 250 places this year.

In terms of the impact of that programme, in 2023—. So, the 2023 school leavers, we had 380 young people that had been through a TWE placement, and 86 per cent of those learners transitioned to a positive destination. When you think that those were learners who had issues with attendance, attainment or behaviour or all three, that was really positive. The real benefit of that programme is that, of those 380 learners, 25 of them transitioned directly into an apprenticeship resulting from the placement. Now, if you look at that as a proportion—25 out of 380—that's far higher than the percentage of year 11 leavers that go into apprenticeships per se. So, we think there's a definite link between the TWE placement at key stage 4 and positive transitions, in addition to motivation, inspiration, attendance increasing and all of those by-products, really.

What are the next steps you'd like to happen regarding that, going forward?

More funding, in a word. It was extended last year, but the project was halved in terms of the funding. We're obviously waiting to hear if that will be extended for next year. In terms of the point you just made, it's five clusters, actually, so there are 13 local authorities working within five clusters.

Right, okay.

When we did the 500 placements, we worked in all local authorities across Wales. So, if it were to be scaled up, then, obviously, it would mean we could work in more local authorities. Because even though, if you look at the data, there are local authorities that have higher needs on paper—places like Blaenau Gwent, Merthyr and so on—there are, obviously, vulnerable learners who could benefit from this programme in every local authority.

I think that dedicated help to a person, that person-centred approach, makes a difference, doesn't it?

That's a recommendation in the Hefin David report, 'Transitions to Employment'. He mentioned having this targeted work experience placement as one of his recommendations, and we know that that's being reviewed currently by Welsh Government.

Thank you. So, we've heard a lot about work experience and who is responsible in our evidence. Since 2015, Careers Wales has no longer managed a work experience placing service, meaning that these arrangements, including any safeguarding assessments and insurance, have to be done by the school. Have you noticed a decrease in the work experience opportunities for learners in schools since then, and what impact has it had on learners?

Well, first and foremost, there's been a dramatic decrease in work experience. If you look, for example—. In 2020 I think it was, Estyn did a thematic inspection on employer engagement in secondary schools, and their conclusion was that only a minority of schools now offer work experience. So, it seems that, when that centralised support was taken away in 2015, a high proportion of schools decided that, for various reasons—teacher time, cost and uncertainty around health and safety vetting—many schools decided that that wasn't going to be an offer, going forward. I think we all know the benefits of work experience from a career decision-making perspective. Work experience can be hugely important in terms of confirming career decisions, but also in confirming to young people that certain sectors are not for them. So, it has a huge level of importance in that, but also, of course, in terms of employability skills and preparing young people more generally for transition to the world of work.

So, I guess it is a loss and you're right in saying that, actually, what we've got across Wales now is a very patchy level of provision. Some schools are offering work experience, some aren't. The schools that do offer work experience usually expect young people to find the places themselves; that's an issue around young people from poorer backgrounds with limited social capital who can't actually source, so haven't got networks to do that. As you say, some local authorities are providing work experience, some schools are paying colleges and private providers to do health and safety vetting. So, it really is a mixed bag, and when you throw into that also virtual work experience placements and some of the tailored programmes through the shared prosperity fund and other funds, it is a real mixed bag. We, as you would probably expect, would be very keen to look at a centralised placement service again, but, without going on too much, we do very much think that we'd need to do some kind of feasibility study first, because it's 10 years since there was a centralised placement service. We've got the new curriculum; the idea of traditional, stand-alone work experience—the ship may have sailed on that one. There may be some local authorities that think that they've got it covered. So, we think we need to really map it, look at what demand is and then look at where we can reintroduce it, if there was funding to do that.

Thank you for covering my next question. [Laughter.]

There we are.

Yes, I was going to ask about recentralisation. So, if that were to happen, a feasibility study would need to be done, taking into consideration the new curriculum and how it's being delivered at the moment. Okay. Thank you very much.

What are your views on the Cardiff commitment, which helps young people understand the jobs and industries that are going on in Cardiff and all the surrounding areas? I find it interesting. Very often, we've heard that parents often direct children into pathways and jobs that they know about as well, so it can be very limiting. But the Cardiff commitment sounds very interesting, doesn't it, knowing what jobs are actually out there in that area. So, what are your views on that?

Excellent programme; I would say a sector-leading programme in many ways. I think the origins of the Cardiff commitment are very much linked to the Edinburgh guarantee; all the financial service sector employers in Edinburgh came together to try and solve a talent pipeline issue, and Cardiff have done something very similar. A superb programme. What I think we need to remember is that Cardiff has the labour market to support such a programme. And I think there are also—. I don’t know this for sure, because I’m certainly not an expert on local authority funding, but I’m guessing that there are economies of scale linked to an authority the size of Cardiff that allows them to do that. My real concern, and I say this as a board member of the regional skills partnership, is that there doesn’t appear to be scalability. So, to an extent, there’s a postcode lottery, and you could ask the question, ‘Why do young people in Merthyr, Blaenau Gwent, Torfaen, Caerphilly and so on not have similar opportunities?’ So, the Cardiff commitment, to answer your question: absolutely superb, but there’s a need for that in lots of other places.

Yes. Okay. Thank you.

We’ve got a much smaller scale project in Ynys Môn, career pathways in Ynys Môn. They want to emulate what they’re doing in the Cardiff commitment, but, as Mark said, it’s more challenging in a small local authority. What they’re doing is bringing partners together, getting the education department from the local authority at a senior level, the regional skills partnership, Careers Wales, employers, and trying to develop a programme—so, there’s work experience, teacher encounters, teachers going out to employers—focusing on apprenticeships and supporting young people on that pathway. So, it’s at early stages, but they’re trying to do something similar. But it has to be adapted to local authority needs, because everybody else can’t have what they have in Cardiff, unfortunately.

And Ynys Môn, the council itself is the biggest employer in the area, employing about 6,000 people, I believe, but then the funding is very different to RCT or Cardiff.

Yes.

But it would be very interesting to learn about what they’re doing and how it goes, for other rural areas we have in Wales. It’s really good that they’re doing that and it would be good to learn from it. So, thank you for telling us about that today. Okay. We're moving on now, I think, to participation in higher education. So, this is Vaughan.

Thank you. So, moving to higher education, there's some concern about the reduction in the number of Welsh learners going to university, and we're interested in your perspective and why you think that is. Do you, for example, think that it's because young people are choosing alternative routes, whether that's further education, degree apprenticeships? So, we're interested in whether this is, if you like, a more informed group of young people making choices or whether you think there's a real issue in the numbers of people making any choice about what takes place in this part of the post-16 sector.

Do you want me to start? I think, based on our own destination data, we don’t think that young people are taking other choices to any kind of level. I think, when you look at degree apprenticeships, for example, obviously they're in a limited number of sectors, and many degree apprentices already have employed status, so there aren't that many direct entry opportunities for young people. I think if you look at apprenticeship starts per se at foundation apprenticeships level 3 and higher level apprenticeships, that figure has been reasonably static, I would say, over the last five years. There was a bit of a spike in 2017-18, but it’s been reasonably static. So, we don’t think young people are going into other routes, particularly.

What we’ve noticed from our own destination data, and that obviously is destination data linked to years 11, 12, and 13—it doesn’t include FE students—we are finding that, actually, NEET figures are higher for year 13 students than they are for year 11. And we’re also finding that year 13 students are going directly into employment in far greater numbers than would be the case for year 11. Now, that might be an obvious trend, because obviously they’re two years older, they might be nearer to the labour market, but what we suspect is that, actually, more and more year 13 leavers are taking a job and almost deferring HE application or HE entry, and then not going back to it. And I think that what our careers advisers are telling us—and this is not data driven; it's fairly anecdotal—is that that is largely driven by cost. It's driven by the cost-of-living crisis over the last couple of years, parental influence, young people asking questions around value for money around HE: is it actually going to pay off in the long term? So, there are lots of issues around cost.

Also, there are regional differences. We know that. We know that more than 50 per cent of young people in Wales choose to stay in a Welsh university, and there are differences between applications in Cardiff and Vale, for example, and other parts of Wales. So, sometimes, if there isn’t a HEI on your doorstep, then young people are choosing not to take that route. So, I think that there are multiple factors, but I don’t see different routes as being the option.

The one other thing that I would say is that, again, if you look at our destination data, over the last few years, there has been a very, very slight increase in terms of FE progression, rather than staying in school sixth forms. So, I think that, at the minute, you have probably got 50-plus per cent of young people in FE, and about 30-32 per cent of young people doing A-levels. That means, of course, that more young people are doing vocational courses in FE and, while you can quite happily progress to HE from vocational courses, it’s probably not quite as linear as from A-level courses. So, there’s another possible link there.

I was looking at our destination data—again, this is based on school leavers and the ones who enter HE—and there hasn't been much of a difference over the last four years. There has been a consistent pattern, if you like, in terms of people leaving, but that is looking at school data. So, that shows that young people who are leaving year 13 are still choosing to go to higher education. As Mark said, that trend, with more people going on vocational courses, that shouldn't be a restriction for people to go on to HE courses, but there is something underlying there, I think.

The other thing that careers advisers are telling us is a barrier is that young people are suffering more with anxiety around decision making and thinking that committing to a higher education course is a big life decision. They are putting it off, rather than jumping in and understanding what that means.

I think that's really interesting. We heard some of that in our stakeholder meeting, about people at the age of 17 or 18 being a bit more anxious about making future choices than in previous years. That isn't all about the education system. There's a whole range of other factors that we can't go into right now. But I'm interested in what you've had to say on a number of fronts, that essentially, as a cohort, Welsh students are more likely to stay in Wales than other parts of the UK, because that isn't often the narrative that we hear when we talk about higher education.

I'm interested in, on the one hand, the good news story that we are seeing an uptick in further education access. But I guess that what we'd all want to see, regardless of what party we are in, is increasing numbers of people taking up further and higher education opportunities where they are appropriate. That’s why there were all of the earlier questions about advice and guidance, so that people can make appropriate choices, again reiterating what is the right thing for the learner.

You mentioned that part of the anxiety is that there is an awareness of the financial investment. Wales, objectively, has the most generous student support offer in the UK. But it’s interesting that that, in itself, isn’t leading to a significant increase in uptake. So, I’m really interested in whether there is more work that you are doing on understanding the difference, both on whether people understand the finance options, but also how they see value for money and whether they are actually looking at, ‘If I do this particular course at this particular university, will I end up enjoying my three years, but then not getting work at the end of it?’ or if the people who are still choosing to go to university are making more direct choices between the course that they do and the likelihood of finding work that they want to find. Some courses are vocational, whether it is nursing or studying to be a physio or being a doctor, whereas other courses, it's not quite as clear, is it, if you do a humanities subject? So, I'm really interested in whether you can see any of that in data—whether it's anecdotal evidence, or whether you think there's anything that we should be looking at in data that helps us to understand why people are making different choices.

I think, just taking the point about student finance to start with, I would definitely say there is an issue around awareness of that system. I think there's a fear of debt. There's a perception of young people coming through university and being £50,000 plus in debt, and not enough recognition of the way that student finance system works and how it's paid back, I guess, as a kind of tax, once they're earning a certain salary, and only paying a small percentage of it back. So, I think there's a lot more work to be done around working particularly with parents about understanding that, because parental influence, as we know—all the research tells us that parents have the major decision-making power, if you like, or the major influence over young people, and that awareness around student funding really is an issue.

The other point around finance is that we also know that young people from poorer backgrounds are increasingly less likely to be applying to HE than other counterparts. And, I think, if you look at the maintenance loans—which, as you say, after the Diamond review, are very, very generous in Wales—of around £12,000, and you look at what you actually need to be able to live reasonably comfortably, there is a shortfall there, and if young people are from poorer families and haven't got parental support financially, then I think that has a major influence in terms of whether they decide to progress or not.

I think, just to come back to your question around data, Vaughan, that's probably an area that we do need to look at. Have we got a consistent picture, or a complete picture in terms of data, that can tell us the impact of education—a longitudinal picture—from pre 16, post 16, to higher education, that gives us evidence around education, skills and employment, and how we need to develop our strategies in Wales? I think that's something that we need to look at. I don't think we have that complete picture.

Okay. I'm also interested—. Universities Wales and Qualifications Wales have highlighted the reduction in the uptake of A-levels; I think it's consistent with what you said earlier, as well. And, of course, you can get A-levels in further education, as well as at school. Just to confirm if that's the picture you recognise, based on your own data, and what your understanding of that is, as well as some of the answers. We're talking about access to choices—the choice to study A-levels, and then the choice to make, then the information to make choices after that. Again, is this part of your broader picture that people are putting off choices, or making choices to go to further education, or is this about not being able to equip young people from 14 to 16 with the ability to make those choices about what is appropriate for them? Because, for some people, A-levels will be the right choice for them, and, for others, they won't.

I suppose, for us, as a careers service, that's key to what we do. We want people to make the choices that are appropriate for their career aspirations. So, we wouldn't be guiding people to study A-levels for the sake of A-levels, or vice versa. Our role is to make sure that all young people are aware of all their options, and to help them plan the appropriate career pathway for themselves.

Okay. I think we'll leave it there, Chair. I'm sure we're going to come back to these with other stakeholders as well. Thank you very much for your time and your answers.

Okay. Thank you. Moving on to Cefin and Welsh-medium provision.

I would like to ask this question in Welsh, if I may, about Welsh-medium provision. We have heard a lot of evidence, of course, that the choice that is available is limited in some parts of Wales in particular, but perhaps more generally too. What impact do you think this has had on the choices of young people, in your experience?

Certainly, we hear about the lack of provision in some regions of Wales, but I think in general terms there is a lack of bilingual or Welsh-medium provision, certainly in terms of vocational courses. So, young people who are taught through the medium of Welsh have to make a decision as to whether they want to continue to learn through the medium of Welsh, and perhaps choose a subject that they might not have done otherwise, or study a course through the medium of English, and perhaps forget their Welsh language skills.

That is a cause of concern, that people are having to give up Welsh-medium education in order to be able to study the course that they want. That has an impact on the language, or if they choose to remain in a sixth form to continue to learn through the medium of Welsh, perhaps then they're not receiving the education that they want, when they should be pursuing a more vocational route. So, there are two elements that are causing concern there, aren't there?

And that is the concern that schools have, of course. They perceive the danger of pupils going to FE colleges where there is either a promise of provision or no provision available, and then that promise doesn't meet the requirements of the pupil in terms of being entirely or mainly through the medium of Welsh, and they then perceive an erosion of language skills, and confidence in terms of the use of the language. So, who do you think is responsible for improving this situation? What needs to be done? There are barriers, so who is responsible for overcoming those barriers?

It's the responsibility of several parties, truth be told. In terms of Careers Wales, we try to raise awareness of the importance of the Welsh language and fostering bilingual skills. So, that's something that we bring in to our careers interviews, so that young people understand how valuable that skill is in order to enter the world of work in future. So, that's part of our role, to raise awareness.

Is that true across Wales?

Mi ddylai fo fod. Mae'n un o'n blaenoriaethau ni fel cwmni i godi ymwybyddiaeth o hynny, p'un ai eich bod chi mewn ysgol ym Merthyr Tudful neu eich bod chi mewn ysgol yng Ngwynedd. Ond mae'n her, onid ydy? Mae'n her i bob sefydliad cyhoeddus. Rydyn ni i gyd yn chwilio am bobl sy'n gallu cynnig gwasanaeth yn ddwyieithog. Felly, mae pawb yn chwilio am y sgil yna. Rydyn ni'n ymwybodol bod y Coleg Cymraeg Cenedlaethol yn gweithredu ar hwn, a dwi'n gobeithio, efo cefnogaeth Medr, y gallwn ni wella'r gwasanaeth a chael mwy o siaradwyr Cymraeg, yn enwedig mewn colegau addysg bellach.

Okay. Thank you very much.

Thank you.

Mark? No, okay.

Okay. Diolch. If we move on to Natasha now.

Thank you so much, Chair. One issue that I come across a lot is the issue of transport being a barrier to learners accessing post-16 education and training. It has come through very strongly so far in our inquiry and I'd like to know your experience. How much of a consideration is transport and the cost of travel for learners when choosing an option after year 11?

Yes, Natasha, it's definitely something that impacts a lot of young people, and it's not specifically in rural areas. We tend to think that that's more of an issue in rural areas, and even though it is, it can be across Wales. It's the cost of transport, it's the reliability of transport, it's transport being accessible for those young people who may have a disability, and just the reliability of it. So, it can be an issue.

For those young people with additional learning needs, when they attend school, the local authority may have paid for that transport for them to get back and forth to school. But once they progress to post-16 learning, sometimes that availability isn't there across all local authorities. So, we have examples of young people not being able to access their desired post-16 provision and having to make alternative arrangements. So, it is a challenge across Wales.

Okay. And how do you think we can best support our students then, who are moving on post year 11? I appreciate it's challenging, but I'd really like to know what you think. If you had a magic wand, what would you do to wave it around and make things better, particularly when it comes to transport?

I guess it comes back down to funding again, as most things do, and it's just having that accessibility of transport for young people with additional learning needs as well, especially.

I'm glad you spoke about young people with additional learning needs because that is my next question. So, how well do you think the specific needs of people with ALN are taken into account when considering what their options are after year 11, both in terms of what they would like to do as well as the extra support to be put in place to keep their options open for them?

Again, we work with ALN pupils. There are two systems working currently side by side. The old special educational needs code of practice is still in existence for those young people in year 14, so we're working under that system. Under the old SEN, our careers advisers would take the lead on making sure that that smooth transition for young people from pre-16 to post-16 education. We would develop learning and skills plans for those young people that would outline their support needs in education or training, and we'd support them over that summer period, if you like, to make sure that that would happen.

The Additional Learning Needs and Education Tribunal (Wales) Act 2018 has now come in, so the responsibility now lies with the school and with the local authority for that transition. So, now you have 22 local authorities with different approaches. I know the Cabinet Secretary for Education has called for a review to try and have a better picture of the consistency and how that's been rolled out, but our support remains available for those young people.

There are challenges. Sometimes the provision isn't there at the right level for those young people. Potentially, some young people have to go into an entry-level course because they haven't got GCSEs. We had an example of a young person who was fantastic in art, wanted to do a qualification in college in art but didn't have any GCSEs. So, then he had to go and do an entry-level course that wasn't related to his main interest and where he wanted to progress as a career. There's a lack of provision of level 1 courses for young people. Again, that can be challenging.

A lot of young people with ALN will choose to stay in school until they're 19 because they feel it's a safer option. They're confident that they'll get the support in the special school and they don't want to risk not having that support. These young people do have aspirations but, sometimes, they're not confident that the support will be available to them or that the right level of course is there for them.

Could I just add as well, if we had a magic wand and funding wasn't an issue, that some kind of universal or national supported placement scheme for young people with ALN, I think, would be fantastic, because that really does sow the seeds in terms of progression into the labour market for many young people?

Well, I do hope that we're able to give you that magic wand at some point. [Laughter.] I'll move on to—. Sorry, Chair.

Can I just come in with a question in relation to ALN as well, please? This committee has identified a reduction in the number of pupils formally identified as having ALN. What impact has this had on your provision?

This is as a result of the ALNET Act being introduced and the definition of ALN, and young people having that individual development plan, the IDP. Because there are 22 different approaches now, it's how the local authorities and schools are identifying young people as having additional learning needs. So, I think that's had an impact on the numbers. In terms of our provision, if we are aware of young people having an IDP, we are reliant on the school inviting us to come to their IDP review. That could differ from one school to another. But, in terms of our offer, as I said right at the beginning, we have an offer for all schools across Wales.

Okay. Thank you, Nerys. Natasha, would you like to continue?

Yes, that's absolutely fine. I'll move on to data now, if that's okay, so I'd like to ask both our guests to what extent a lack of published data that shows the trends of young people's choices and destinations limits the careers advice that you're able to provide.

I don't think that a lack of data limits the careers advice that we can provide, unless you have something specific in mind, if you think that we're not reaching a particular group.

Not in any specific angle, but I'm just saying we often hear about data being an issue and, obviously, in relation to data being collected, it can be a bit of a reason for joined-up bodies not to be able to work together to create a better outcome. So, I just wanted to know, in that respect, if indeed there is a lack of published date out there that limits the career advice able to be given on a broader spectrum.

I think there is data there, and you are right that there's a lack, maybe, of co-ordination between data. There are different pots of data, if you like. So, we've got the Lifelong Learner Wales Record data, for example. That tells us about young people going to FE. But then what we don't have is the data of their progression from FE. You've got the Careers Wales data that we mentioned earlier, the destination data that we collate on behalf of the Welsh Government that gives you the destination data for years 11, 12 and 13. Medr now are looking at producing a data set on young people who progress into tertiary, and they talked about looking at the different characteristics there. But what we need is that career journey, isn't it, that longitudinal: where people start on that journey, what provision they get along that journey, and how that then informs provision from Careers Wales, local authorities, colleges and other providers. That's probably what's lacking.

Okay. And your paper says that Careers Wales has presented a prototype of an all-Wales data hub to the Welsh Government. Could you please provide the committee with some more information on the data hub, such as what exactly the data is going to be consisting of, and how you foresee its use, going forward?

On the data hub, we did a feasibility study about two years ago. We recognise that we hold a lot of data within Careers Wales. We've got career check data. So, we carry out a survey with year 10 pupils that asks them about their career aspirations—their next steps, their career readiness, how motivated they are—and around 28,000 young people respond to that survey. So, there's a lot of data there that's sitting with Careers Wales. We've got the destination data, and we know that local authorities have data, colleges have data, higher education have data, DWP have data. So, the concept of the data hub is to bring that data together and to use that data to inform education providers, employers, regional skills partnerships, so that we can strategically plan together. So, we've presented the data hub to the Welsh Government. We've demonstrated the data hub to the north RSP, and everybody who's seen it thinks that it has real potential to bring data sets together and help us plan strategically and see that longitudinal journey, if you like.

In Scotland, they've got this kind of database, and they've also got HMRC data in there. So, you can see where people are employed, you can see people's earnings, and you can see where they were educated. So, it would enable educators to look at how effective their programmes are. It would inform careers services—how impactful are we, are we targeting our services in the right place? It has huge potential. So that's, in a nutshell, the data hub.

It sounds amazing, I must say. It sounds like it's really got a lot of information from so many different areas coming in to one place, which is always very welcome. So, I'd just like to ask now: what does the future hold for this particular hub, and who do you feel should take responsibility for it? Should it be Careers Wales, the Welsh Government or Medr, for example?

Potentially, it could sit anywhere. I mean, we've created the prototype, if you like. We've had conversations with Medr, and we're demonstrating the hub to Medr next week. So, I think there's potential for us to collaborate with Medr. And then, again—I'm using the 'f' word again: funding—if there's funding there for us to take this forward, I just think it has huge potential for the Welsh Government, for all bodies concerned.

Thank you so much. Thank you, Chair.

Thank you, Natasha. So, that brings us to the end of the questions in this session. I'd like to thank you both for attending. You'll be sent a transcript for checking in due course. So, thank you very much.

Thank you very much. Diolch yn fawr.

Thank you. Diolch.

We're going to just take a short break now while we bring in the final set of witnesses.

Welcome, everybody. So, we are now on routes into post-16 education and training, evidence session 5. I'd like to welcome Lisa Mytton, strategic director—I hope I've pronounced that correctly—

Yes. Thank you, Chair.

—thank you—from the National Training Federation for Wales, via Zoom; Dr Ben Calvert, vice-chancellor of the University of South Wales, and vice-chair of Universities Wales, also via Zoom; and Amanda Wilkinson, director of Universities Wales, via Zoom. So, the benefit of Zoom today, which is amazing—it saves travelling, doesn't it? We've also got Vaughan and Natasha as well, hybrid, and Cefin is in the room with me today.

So, I will start with the first questions. We've heard that there's a variation in the quality, content and nature of careers advice and information provided to learners. Why do you think this is? Why is this happening, and what is the impact of this on learners when making decisions about their options after year 11, in your view? Who would like to come in first? Okay, thank you—that's Lisa.

Thank you, Chair. Sorry, I wasn't sure. Can you hear me loud and clear? Is that okay?

I can, indeed. Thank you.

Okay. Thank you. Well, inevitably, I'm here to speak on behalf of the apprenticeship pathway routes into post 16. So, for us, really, I mean, the quality of information provided to those potential new learners, whether they go into apprenticeships, FE, HE, et cetera, is critical, is crucial. I think we all appreciate that. But there's a lot of disparity around it. More needs to be done, really, to ensure engagement is consistent with all providers, so including apprenticeship providers and colleges, et cetera. There is a significant gap that remains in the quality and joint marketing activities between schools, employers and training providers, really, to effectively promote apprenticeships, and I think that is down to a lack of awareness, school engagement, and understanding, really, of apprenticeships.

So, a lot of the networks that I represent do actively engage with schools, some with greater success than others, but there is still that disparity that happens. I did note earlier, when our colleagues in Medr were questioned about it, and I thought it was important to note it now, really, that my colleague Rhian mentioned—because we do have effective collaboration with Medr—flexible funding and £3 million given to schools and colleges last year for transactional activities, and I think that has impacts on apprenticeship providers, because apprenticeship providers in the network don't get any additional funding at all apart from the apprenticeship funding that they get. So, there's some disparity there, and so that is something that I think, perhaps, we need to consider as part of this research that the inquiry is actually doing.

Okay. Thank you, Lisa. Would anybody else like to come in?

Perhaps if I could, I think there's a wider question for me here about actually what we're trying to achieve from the system overall. So, when we look at data, it does appear that there are differences in our qualifications system than we're seeing elsewhere. So, I think it's not just about, 'What's the quality of the advice and guidance?'; it's also about, 'What are we trying to build here?' So, one of the things that, of course, we're seeing, is a significant underparticipation of learners in higher education when you compare that to England. And I think that isn't just an issue that is about education—that's actually a strategic economic issue. So, when we think about—. If we ask ourselves the question, 'What sort of economy do we want to build, and therefore what sorts of qualifications do we require in order to build it?', it seems odd that, in these data, we seem to be diverting people away from higher education qualifications, in some cases, and into others.

Most of the data, if you look at Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development data, would show us that graduates contribute, potentially, about 30 per cent more to gross domestic product than non-graduates. Well, if we want a high-skilled, high-value economy that does that, how do we create advice and guidance systems that take people towards that? And indeed, what's the relationship between providers that ensures that people get into as high value a job as they possibly can? So, I think there’s probably something in here that is about the connectivity between parts of the system to ensure that what we're doing is we're collaborating together to push people through that system, rather than thinking about this as, 'Well, we need to market apprenticeships, we need to market FE, we need to market HE', and those things are somehow in competition. I think if we start with a question about what we want to build.

I'm not sure there would have been a deliberate thing in the system, for example, that would have meant that we were pushing for an A-level participation rate in Wales that is 33 per cent, whereas in England it's 47 per cent; I don't think that's happened deliberately. So, I think we maybe need to sit back and ask: what is it we're trying to build here and why? What are the qualifications that fit with that? And how do we build good advice and guidance to make sure that we get that high-value economy rolling?

Okay, thank you, Ben. Amanda, would you like to come in?

We might say a bit more about this perhaps later, but I do think the Seren programme has been quite polarising, in terms of looking at, perhaps, what we might describe as support for the most able, and then nothing in between in relation to those who could benefit from higher education. But then, we seem to have a gap, I think, in relation to the advice and guidance available for those individuals. So, I think there is something at that more granular level that we probably need to have a bit of a look at.

Okay, thank you. We've received evidence from colleges and training providers that there can be competition and conflict of interest between schools, sixth forms and further education colleges—fighting over budgets that follow the pupils and students, by the sound of it. Is this something that you recognise as well, in your view? And what could be done and by whom to ensure that learners are receiving information about all the options after year 11?

Perhaps a view from me first. I'm sorry, I saw Lisa was coming in on this, so perhaps quickly from me. I think the question for me is: how do you raise all boats? So, for example, if we take that participation issue, we know that some of those learners might be best suited to doing higher education in FE colleges for particular reasons. But actually, others will be best suited to come to university and do it in university. The issue is actually how do we get the aggregate value up, so that more of those students are able to participate in that system. What we are seeing—. We have an FE college in our structure at the University of South Wales, so we've got a circumstance where they've got growth in their learner numbers, but it's largely in lower level qualifications where, actually, people are catching back up. So, we're paying for education twice through that system.

What we really need them to be doing is working with us to make sure that students progress even further than that. If we focused on raising all boats, then actually there should be an opportunity—. It shouldn't be a zero-sum game is what I'm saying. We should be able to find spaces of collaboration in there that allow us, across the system, to concede some sovereignty into a conversation about who's best to do what and where. Frankly, the issue is, from a higher education perspective, there's probably a multiple of thousands of students that are not getting educated up to the level that they should be, and how do we make sure we collaborate to ensure that that happens.

Okay, thank you. Lisa, do you want to come in now?

Yes, thank you, Chair. Just quickly, if I may as well, I just wanted to make a reference to what Ben had said earlier. He's quite right, and I think what we need to do, really, is look at that parallel pathway, so that there are opportunities for all, and to go into HE/FE apprenticeships, et cetera. But on this now, Chair, I think, for me, it is absolutely important.

And I think there is that competition out there from a school and an FE perspective, and there needn’t be. The opportunity should be there for all, and the schools should be providing that impartially. If you think about the Baker clause, they should be providing that impartially, because what’s important is that every child, every young person, gets equality of access and gets that opportunity across the board. So, that is really important: helping those young people transition into post 16 into whatever pathway they want to do, and help them with that careers advice.

And I think—and I’ve said this with Hefin when he did his report as well—one place that I’ve seen it effectively happen is here in Merthyr Tydfil, where we have a tertiary model. That competition has sort of eased a little bit. I have to say, it’s not the same across the board in Wales, and that’s a difficult one to deal with when you have sixth forms and colleges and other providers, et cetera, all trying to vie and trying to get that message out there.

But I think one way of effectively overcoming that, working with the schools, and all the different education providers, is an example of the Cardiff commitment. And maybe we’ll talk about that in a little bit, but I just wanted to touch upon that, because I think that is a really effective way of engaging schools in understanding about careers advice and guidance for young people, and helping them onto those paths. Thank you.

We discussed that earlier and they said that it works well, maybe, in urban areas like this, and then Anglesey are also looking at a different model for rural areas, which I’m very interested to hear about, how it progresses. You mentioned, Lisa, the Baker clause, so that’s here in my notes to ask a question about. What are your views on whether an equivalent to the Baker clause in England should be here in Wales as well, and would that address issues around post-16 providers accessing pupils and schools? Do you think that would help if we had something similar?

I think, inevitably, there’s a lot of different ways to do it. One that we’re seeing coming through and being a bit more proactive now, is that, of course, we have the careers and work-related experiences within the new curriculum within schools. So, there is a responsibility now from the teaching workforce and the heads, et cetera, to engage because it’s part of the new curriculum, so we have to look at effective work-related experience, et cetera. And I think that’s opening new doors, but it’s in its early stages.

So, I think having something and reiterating the Baker clause about the impartiality would help all of us—whether it’s my colleagues, Amanda, et cetera, in the HE division, FE, work-based learning—and I’m sure that it would help reduce the number of NEETs that we have as well, because you’re providing information to schools, which, perhaps, in fairness to the teaching staff, they don’t necessarily have and they don’t always have that expertise. So, open the doors to those people who can do that, and by having and reminding them of the Baker clause, it will certainly help and I think we just need to do that. There’s a lot that our education providers, pre 16, have to do, bless them, so anything that we can do to help, I’m sure we would all welcome that and support it, working collaboratively.

Okay, thank you. To Universities Wales, your paper says that Wales is experiencing some of the most alarming post-16 participation challenges we’ve seen in many years. So, could you expand on why you describe the situation as alarming, and what do you think can be done to address these challenges?

Shall I—? Do you want me to say something first, Chair?

Yes, please, Amanda. Thank you.

So, I think it’s alarming because of the drift we’re seeing because of the decline relative to performance elsewhere, where we’ve seen a 6.3 per cent drop in HE participation in WalesFootnoteLink. We were very close to other UK nations in terms of our participation—England in 2006—and that’s declined. I think we should be very worried about that decline. I think the relative position of where we sit on A-levels with such a huge gap—33 per cent in Wales participation, compared to 47 per cent over the border. As Ben said, none of us would have done this deliberately, but that has got to be a concern for us, particularly if we want our young people to be able to access those kinds of higher level skills, those higher level skills courses. I’m afraid that is a real impediment to them, and I don’t think we’re getting the messaging right on that. As I’ve said, I think, in terms of advice and guidance, and school-level advice, we’ve got a real gap. I think we’ve lost balance in this area, and we really, as Ben said earlier, need to think about what is it we want to achieve here. We've already got 52 per cent participation in vocational qualifications, which I think is the highest in the UK. So, we've almost tilted the balance here. Is that the balance we want?

Okay, thank you. Ben.

If I can perhaps follow up on that, I think one of the things that I have to say I find frustrating sometimes is the semantics around this, this kind of idea that there are academic pathways and vocational pathways. Give me a non-skilled engineer, or a non-skilled nurse, or a non-skilled lawyer or a non-skilled cyber security expert. I think we have to be really careful about the language, because I think these things are actually important. The issue is qualification level. We're not pushing enough people through to graduation qualification level. Wherever that happens, we're not getting there. And if we don't, then we probably accept that we're in a situation where we're saying to our future generations that they're going to be in a low-skilled economy, and I'm not sure that's where I would want to be. So, actually at the moment, in the absence of a Baker clause, what you're seeing is a strange skew towards vocational in the data. Again, I'm not sure that that's necessarily what people are planning or intending.

So, if we start by what do we want to achieve here, and we want to achieve an economy that has got higher values, we want to achieve a higher skilled workforce, then we have to really ask ourselves, 'How do we get those flow-throughs across the whole system?' That of course does involve not just semantics, but it involves hard work. For example, we're doing a lot of work with our FE partnership. We have a strategic alliance with five FE colleges, we have one in our group structure, where we're trying to create those pathways and those ladders. It's hard work, but by way of example, the work we do with the Royal College of Nursing cadet scheme for nurses, to take people who are not perhaps qualified to go into nursing qualifications through activities where, actually, they're able to participate. We're doing similar stuff around medicine. We've done work with our FE partners around the design of degree apprenticeships, for example, with Coleg y Cymoedd on rail.

So, I do think some of this stuff is about, as I say, conceding some sovereignty to ask what does a region require, and then working very hard to design that collaboratively. So, I think if we can do that and we can do more of that, and we can stop boxing people in to either vocational or—. Which, often, I think, are simplistic. The aim should be to get people into higher level qualifications if we're going to drive that economy forward.

That sounds a bit like the Cardiff model, doesn't it—what's available regionally and then designed collaboratively for what's out there, basically. Thank you.

To what extent does poor-quality information and support provided to learners in schools result in the likelihood of young people becoming not in education, employment or training—NEET? Is it harder for these young people to then re-engage with the education system once they've left school at 16 years of age? Yes, Lisa, could you come in? Thank you. Are you unmuting and somebody else is unmuting you?

Yes, sorry—my apologies. I was doing it and didn't realise that somebody else had done it. So, inevitably, there is a big NEETs issue. I think there are effective routes in helping that. You've got the junior apprenticeship model, and obviously a lot of providers that we work with as well help with the employability skills—for example, Jobs Growth Wales+. So, it does help to capture and support those people who perhaps have gone on a different path in life or a different journey, and really need that additional advice and guidance. So, you've got two models there that I think work effectively. What we need, I have to say, is better data in order to capture that and pan-Wales data as well, so that we can make sure that's more comprehensive and we can look at where these young people are going and why.

But there are some models out there to support them, and as I said, again, it goes back to that career advice and guidance being strong and our teaching staff having an understanding of that, and also Careers Wales having a responsibility there to engage with people at that younger age, when you're talking year 9, year 10, et cetera, and that cohort of learners, to understand what opportunities are out there. Ben's quite right: we need to encourage young people to go on and do higher education, university, et cetera. There's a cohort going to FE because that's more suitable for them, apprenticeships. As I said, there is this pathway available for everybody. Amanda and I have been talking recently about how we can have those links—similarly to the degree apprenticeships that Ben mentioned as well within rail, how we can have those links from the health and social care apprenticeship groups that we have that can then move into nursing et cetera and higher education, and why not let them develop their career that way. So, healthy competition is good, but collaboration is even better, I have to say. Thank you.

Okay. Thank you. Does anybody—? Sorry, Amanda, would you like to come in on this?

Yes. I think that our view, as you'll have seen from our evidence, is that we should have compulsory education to 18. We're an outlier in the UK now [correction: We're out of step with the UK now]. We know from Programme for International Student Assessment data that those economies that do have compulsory education to 18 tend to perform better. So, I think our view is that we probably need to think really very carefully about why Wales is better served by only having compulsory education to 16, or whether we need to think about really what the outcomes are if we could extend that. I don't know if you want to say anything else, Ben, about that.

Yes. I think it's partly the piece that I mentioned earlier on about what signals are we sending about the economy and society that we want because, given the outcomes that we seem to have, they're not necessarily ones that you would say would be compatible with that high-skill, high-value economy. So, I would place compulsory education to 18 in that context, because actually it sends a signal of aspiration around education. It sends a signal about the importance of education through one's life, actually. And to cut that off at 16 when we seem to be unusual in that seems to be sending a strange message. We talk about lifelong learning, we talk about people having access throughout their lives, and yet we have a lower compulsory education age. So, I think it's a bigger piece here. As I said, it's about what system do we want, what society, what economy do we want, and actually have we got the assets to build towards that. And it looks out of place.

Okay. Would you include the apprenticeships model, the junior apprenticeships model, as part of that education as well, for those who develop and grow through career-based pathways rather than just academic?

Speaking for myself, I don't think that I know enough about that yet to comment on that.

Okay. Vocational pathways, sorry, rather than academic, I should say. Okay. Thank you.

Again, I would say that we do vocational programmes in universities. So, the issue is where does that journey take people: can you progress from a junior apprenticeship; can you move your skill level up; can you move into those higher level skills; and are we building those ladders? So, I think we have to be constantly careful and vigilant not to assume that higher education, universities, don't do vocational work; the issue is how do we build those ladders so that people can potentially progress from vocational pathways into higher skilled work.

Okay. Lisa, I see that you're desperate to come in, and then Cefin.

Yes, just to support my colleagues, because we do work in different areas and sometimes we aren't, as Amanda said, always au fait with what's happening, but I'll give you a very quick example of a wonderful young man in Cardiff and Vale College who undertook a junior apprenticeship. He was from a Travelling community in the area and faced many challenges and barriers, and so the junior apprenticeship was the first rung on the ladder, if you like, for him. And I'm pleased to say that he is now actually going to university after the junior apprenticeship to undertake law. So, this young man who started in Cardiff and Vale College with a junior apprenticeship—a fantastic group of people down there, I have to say—he's actually going on and is now successfully going to university in September to undertake law. So, those opportunities are there and it does give them those skill levels, encouragement and support—social as well as academic—to move on and progress.

Thank you, Lisa. A wonderful example. Thank you. I'm just going to bring Cefin in now as well to ask a question. Cefin's here in the room.

Shwmae. Hiya. Can I just come in on the idea of compulsory education up to the age of 18? I'm really interested in this, and I think we need to have an honest conversation about the pros and cons of that. Just thinking aloud, we've heard from others today about the pressure that the cost-of-living crisis is putting on young people in terms of maybe not pursuing education after the age of 16, because they want to get into the world of work, they want to start earning money. So, how could we counter that influence by suggesting, 'Well, listen, we expect you to carry on for another two years in education, but without getting paid for it'?

Could I just answer that question, if that's okay, because I think there is also some learning for us as an education system here? The idea that students are full-time in the way that they used to be in the past, I think, is just not the case—most of our students, we know, are working 10, 20 hours a week getting paid employment elsewhere. They're also, of course, in receipt of a very generous maintenance proposition in Wales, which is paradoxical, isn't it, because it's not actually driving participation levels? So, there must be more going on there.

So, I think we partly own that challenge as well, because what we have to do is create an ability to access education that allows people to have quite complex lives that includes work and family commitments—you know, in USW, many of our students are mature. So, I do think there is a piece here where we need to explain to people that you can come to university, you can get a great degree, you can be successful in your studies, and you can also potentially earn money. As well as, as a consequence of the degree, explain to them the advantages that that confers in terms of their ability to earn a greater amount of money later on in their lives and to defer that to a portion of their life where we know that the graduate premium still exists.

So, I still think that we need to have that conversation. I guess it's been sharpened post COVID, so I think we're still seeing some legacy issues there. And we saw, I think, with the cost-of-living crisis, a drift to work. I think this is clearly a collective effort, because we also need to make sure that, when they do graduate, they're coming into an economic environment where there are good graduate jobs for them. So, we can't be selling people a pup, they also have to be able to come into an environment where those graduate jobs are there. So, it's complicated, but I think we also see our role in that in creating more flexible, accessible education to allow people to balance those complicated lives.

Okay, Cefin?

Yes, fine. Thank you.

Thank you. You touched before on work experience, so how important is meaningful work experience in schools in order to raise awareness of all options available to learners after year 11? What needs to be done and by whom to improve this provision? Would you like to come in on that, Lisa?

Yes, happy to come in. So, I think that we missed a trick with work experience, and I think this is why it's now within the new curriculum, as I said, so obviously we welcome that. But effective work experience can help a young person jump on to their career ladder and go into whatever they want to do—higher education, further education, jump and go on to an apprenticeship scheme et cetera—by having that effective work-related experience. And this is why I mentioned the Cardiff Commitment, because I don’t think that this is done effectively across the board at the moment, if I’m honest. You’ve got, for instance, some of our apprenticeship network working really effectively with some employers and providing excellent work experience, but, again, it’s getting into the school to give that to those year 7, year 8 children as well, and we’re also talking, with work-related experiences, about those as young as primary schoolchildren as well—why not? Let’s get them enthused about what’s available in Wales at the moment for everybody further afield et cetera, but that is really important.

I mentioned the Cardiff Commitment because what I felt about the Cardiff Commitment—I've just had a presentation off them recently—was that they had closed that gap; they had closed that gap between the schools and post-16 education providers and the work experience, so bringing in employers, and I think that was really effective. You only had to listen to them—one was in hospitality and catering, chefs down at the Celtic Manor et cetera, giving them these wonderful opportunities, going on to experience hands-on working environments, and helping them, then, with their chosen career paths. But, of course, that doesn’t happen across the board—that’s within the Cardiff capital region—and so I think what we need to do is think about how we can share that experience, use that as a best practice model, to have real, effective work experience throughout Wales.

So, what do you think are the barriers, then, to expanding it, going forward?

Well, I think inevitably, it’s funding. If I’m brutally honest, it’s funding. The Cardiff Commitment has that wonderful funding from the Cardiff capital region, but that then isn’t available in some other areas of the Cardiff capital region. So, I’ll just speak about those specifically, but if you think of Blaenau Gwent, Merthyr Tydfil et cetera—. So, I think it needs to be expanded in that way and used, as I said, as a best-practice model. We’ve got some effective use, as you mentioned, Chair, earlier, with Anglesey, so let’s share that pan-Wales and see how we can do it. I mean, there are going to be challenges, because if we talk about mid, rural Wales et cetera, it’s accessibility and travel, then, as well, inevitably. But I think more could be done to see how we can provide that work experience, and also work with our regional skills partnerships as well—we have RSPs mid, north, south-east et cetera—work together with those to help, because they have the employer network to hand as well.

Okay. Thank you, Lisa. If we move on to Natasha now to ask some questions.

Thank you so much, Chair. Good afternoon, everybody. I’d just like to ask to what extent do you think the reduction in the number of Welsh learners going to university is actually due to young people choosing alternative higher education routes, such as courses provided by further education institutions, the Open University or degree apprenticeships? And do you feel that young people are turning away from the more traditional academic routes?

Thank you. Perhaps if I could pick up that answer. No, I actually don’t think that’s true. When you look at the UCAS data, across the UK, the number of 18-year-olds participating in education as a percentage is going up, so we seem to have something peculiar going on here. We seem to have something that is a peculiarly Welsh phenomenon. Of course, in England, that’s different region by region, so there are some regions that are closer, and often they are regions that have similar demographic traits and issues in terms of inequality and so on. So, the north-east, for example, may be a little bit closer in terms of that. But actually, even when you look at deprived populations, indexes of deprivation, we have a significantly higher gap of participation in education.

So, there’s something else going on here. I don’t think this is a turn-away. As I said, we have a significant alliance of FE partners where we have franchise provision, and, of course, some of that is absolutely right for those learners; it’s right for them to stay in location, in a place where they feel best capable of realising their opportunity. But even there, we’re not seeing a growth in HE and FE, we’re actually seeing some declines there. So, the issue is that people are not feeling that higher level qualifications are for them, whether that’s in an FE provider or an HE provider. Similarly, we’re not seeing significant drift to degree apprenticeships, and, of course, the amount of that that we can do anyway is limited by funding.

So, no, I don’t think that that is the issue. There’s something else going on. And I think it’s complicated. Some of that has got to be, 'Are we all clear', as I said earlier on, 'about what we want to achieve and what level of aspiration we have in our education system, and what that should look like to fuel the economy and society that we would want?' I can’t see that we could see how the current mix of qualifications that we have and the levels that people are achieving are matched to what we would desire. So, I don’t think this is about drift; I think there’s something else going on here about aspiration and how we drive people through those qualification levels.

If I’m honest, I completely agree with you. I don’t think there is very much aspiration, unfortunately, especially amongst young people going off to higher education and pursuing their ambitions, due to a number of reasons, as you mentioned.

The reduction in the number of Welsh students attending university—and I know that’s kind of contrary to what you’ve just said—is against the backdrop of what many may call the most generous package of student support. Why do you think that is the case? Do you find that young people and their parents, carers, are being provided with enough information regarding student finance, or is that just the most off-putting thing ever for every parent and every carer and every guardian out there?

The short answer to that is ‘no’. We haven’t done enough to promote our package, and there’s been too much noise, I guess, from across the border, that we haven’t countered in relation to the package of support that's on offer from Wales. I think we’ve also had different bits of our system sending different and mixed messages. So, I’m just going to mention the Careers Wales campaign [correction: Welsh Government campaign] that went along the lines of 'Don’t pay fees, do an apprenticeship, it’s genius.' We can’t have one bit of our system effectively doing that to another part and us publicly funding that. It comes down to what do we want. This isn't joined up, it's absolutely awful, and we really, really need better messaging out there in this area.

And messaging in what respect? What can we do differently to make things better and improve it from what it is right now?

What we should be looking at is a much more all-encompassing study and work in Wales campaign, not a bit of Careers Wales for apprenticeships, not a bit of Seren, 'Let's support our most able young people to go to universities in England.' No, what we need is a really comprehensive approach around study and work in Wales that is giving young people all of the options in a really much more joined-up way, not a bit here and a bit there. It's not working.

I've got you. Lisa, you had your hand up as well.

Yes, just very quickly. Look, to give you an example from a parent, I'm a single mum in Merthyr Tydfil, my son just graduated from Cardiff University, with a choice of academic route and Cardiff offered that, so that was really, really pleasing. But my gosh, I thought I knew about student finance and what support we could get for him, but it was mind-boggling, and he and I really didn't realise that initial applying for it and making sure that we met the deadlines, et cetera. So, if there is one shout-out there, as a mum, and what we had to go through, it's let's have some more clarity on that, so that we can encourage people to understand that there is that support.

With my other hat on, I was a 16-year-old apprentice, hence my passion for apprenticeships, as well. So, what I would say, as I said, is we have to remember that there's opportunity for all. So, going back to Amanda's point—and she's quite right, and I take that on board as somebody who is working on behalf of the apprenticeship network—there are opportunities for all, as I said, with whatever route you want to go into. Apprenticeships are and can be highly skilled, highly paid, meeting that economic growth, et cetera, as well as our FE and our HE partnerships. So, we need to have that parity of esteem across the board, so everybody understands that if this is the route you want to take, like my son wanted to go into climate change and geography, et cetera, Cardiff University was the best choice for him. For my daughter, it's different; she's going down the apprenticeship route. We have to make sure that that messaging is out there and clear, Natasha, definitely. I'm sure we'll all help and support that.

Excellent. Thank you very, very much for that. My next question and final question will be targeted specifically at Universities Wales. Your paper highlights that there's been a reduction in the uptake of A-levels, and what do you think would have been the reason for this particular result? In your view, what needs to be done, and who should be addressing this issue? Don't all come in at once. [Laughter.]

I'd go back to a point that I made earlier on. I suspect you won't find a plan in a cupboard somewhere that said that that was the intention, but it's happened, and we've woken up to the fact that it's happened. Something is going on in this system that we need to know more about, that is directing people one way or another. I think the worry I have is that if you go back to that study in Wales and working in Wales idea that we had earlier on, if that's overlaid by, 'So that you can achieve the highest you possibly can and stretch yourself as far as you possibly can,' yes. What I worry about is that we're having almost terminal conversations about people's ceiling that seals them off. The issue is how do we get them further from these things. If you're doing an apprenticeship, where else can you go? If you're doing a GCSE, where else can you go? It's about having that sense of stretch and aspiration through that system, I think, because, clearly, there seems to be a ceiling we're placing, when we have got a participation gap of six to seven percentage points from England in higher education. Again, I suspect nobody planned it.

So, I do think we need to explore this more. What's changed, because it didn't used to be that way? And, of course, there are things that have happened in that intervening period. We've had economic change; we've had COVID; we've had lots of narrative from UK Government about the value of degrees. All of those things. I think there's an unholy coalition of forces there that probably lead to something happening without it being planned, but is that what we want? If we want that high-value, high-skilled economy—. As I said, if we don't have that, we won't have the tax take that will pay for all the other things that we need to do. Those graduates who potentially contribute 30 per cent more GDP, that's where you get your money from to pay for all the other good things that we need to do. So, we have to have stretch in that system and aspiration, and say to people at all levels, 'You can achieve as high as you can.'

Understood. Thank you very much for that. Amanda, you wanted to say something, I saw your hand up before.

Yes. So, I think we've got a number of issues here. In the work we've done in this area, the thing that has shocked us most is the gap in Wales between the most and the least deprived in terms of their higher education participation, and that is most stark in Wales, compared with across the border in England. And that is something we absolutely have to address. We have to be thinking about what is the impact of our education system on people's ability to improve their lives, and at the moment, we are not seeing that and that is absolutely awful that that is where we are here. We know that our colleagues in FE are now having to pick up a lot more level 1, level 2 qualifications, so we're in a position, effectively, where we're paying for some of that twice. So, it's really interesting, some of the different models we might be looking at, to think about that space.

And I think we just need to do more on transitions. We know that we, for example, recruit more of our students from sixth forms in Wales than we do for FE. What's happening in relation to that transition? What are we doing? What's our strategy and policy about improving that transition from FE into HE? So, how do we prepare people for their move to university? So, I think there are a few things there, Natasha. I think we probably need a lot more work in this area, but this is the absolute key; we can't sustain that gap.

Understood. Thank you so much for your answers. Thank you very much, Chair.

Thank you, Natasha. Cefin, would you like to come in with Welsh-medium provision?

I'm going to ask these questions in Welsh.

I'm going to ask these questions in Welsh, so you need your translation put on.

This question is about Welsh-medium provision. A number of the submissions we've received and heard today have referred to choices for learners through the medium of Welsh, post 16, being more limited, and that that impacts on their choices. Have you seen this happening, and what can we do to change that?

Okay. Lisa.

Hi. Diolch. Okay. So, we have—. For the network, we work closely with Coleg Cymraeg Cenedlaethol to enhance the Welsh-medium offer. So, over the years, we've had a number of Welsh-medium action plans, bilingual action plans, et cetera. So, there has been an increase, and certainly in the health and social care sector, we see far more take-up in the bilingual or Welsh-medium education setting there, and that's because of the nature of it and the size of that provision, as well. But in other areas, there isn't so much take-up and we are doing more to try and do that. The coleg have helped us to increase upskilling of provider network staff as well, so that they become more confident if they're already a Welsh speaker, but they become more confident in being able to deliver those qualifications.

So, we are moving forward and progressing that. I think more can be done. For some learners who are leaving school, who are of school age, whether they're going into FE or apprenticeships, I think it's understanding that there is limited choice in that, so there isn't Welsh-medium education available across all apprenticeship routes and certainly—I can only speak from experience—but going into FE provision, there isn't a secondary Welsh language school in Merthyr Tydfil, it's shared with Rhondda Cynon Taf, and the local college in Merthyr has minimal opportunity for Welsh language to continue post 16. So, I think there is a wider issue here that needs to be actually looked at. It's the Welsh-medium staff and resources needed, and obviously the offer of qualifications across the board is limited, available in some areas, and do work with a lot of awarding organisations in order to provide that at cost to providers as well, which they do, with the support from the coleg, but I think there is more that can be done.

Okay. Would anybody else like to come in? Amanda.

Yes. So, we have benefited from the work of the coleg Cymraeg. We know, from work commissioned by the higher education funding council, as was, that there are higher costs and smaller class sizes. We used to receive a premia for Welsh-medium education. That, obviously, has been cut, and I think that we really need to think about, also, the fact that we are, of all the UK nations, most likely to send our young people across our borders to pick up their university education.

So, all of these factors have an effect, and if we are really very serious about expanding our provision in this area, then we are going to need a lot more collaboration. We are going to need to be very realistic about the investment that would be required, including in our staff, and I think that we need to be really clear about the potential for our students to study in Wales and pick up their higher education through the medium of Welsh.

Thank you very much. If I could follow up on some of the points that you have raised. The first one is that you mentioned perhaps a shortage of bilingual staff who can contribute to various courses in the post-16 sector. Who, in your view, is responsible for improving that situation, and what should we do about it? How can we go about recruiting more bilingual staff for that sector?

We have had very effective schemes that we have run through the coleg Cymraeg, supporting fellowships. That has been very crucial. We know, in some instances, of course, that we have an ageing workforce. That's something that I think we need to look at. We need to be really clear about that, and we need to be monitoring those workforces, in particular, to be able to anticipate where we are going to have some issue. Ben, I don't know if you want to say anything on that.

Nothing to add, Chair.

And the final question, truth be told, on this is: why do you think—Universities Wales, you said this in your paper—that the costs are higher for provision through the medium of Welsh?

So, if we're looking at the work that HEFCW commissioned, that's largely down to the smaller class sizes that we have. So, it's a question of the staff-student ratio that we have to operate with, which does drive up the cost.

Okay. If I can just maybe add one more question, going back to—. I can't remember who mentioned the Seren scheme, which in my opinion actively encourages young people from Wales to study across the border. Somebody mentioned messaging. What kind of messaging, or what kind of message, rather, does this give to our universities in Wales—that, for some reason, they are not good enough, perhaps, for our young people?

Perhaps I could offer a comment there. Again, I think that this is part of a bigger piece. Amanda mentioned earlier on the number of students who go across the border anyway. So, we have a significantly higher proportion of students from Wales going to study in England than we have elsewhere. I think that this is all part of a piece really.

As a consequence of that, what we also therefore find is that the number of students who are Welsh who end up doing a degree, whether that is in Wales or England, who then come back and work in Wales is relatively low. I think it is in the mid-50 per cent. If you compare that to USW, for example, we recruit around 65 per cent of our students from the south-east Wales region, and 73 per cent to 74 per cent of them stay and work in Wales. So, actually, you can see the value.

I always say that if you spend £1 at USW, you spend it well for Wales. So, the bigger issue here, actually, is how do we not limit options, but how do we continue to present the university system in Wales as an excellent system for Welsh students to stay in, and Wales as a great country for them to work in. I don't think the Seren scheme helps in that, because it presents a view that, actually, maybe the system isn't as strong as it is over the bridge, and, presentationally, that doesn't help. So, I think we do have some concerns there, particularly when we look at the participation challenge. Where should that effort be being directed? Because if we're got a real issue of aspiration at lower levels, and we've got talent that simply isn't entering into the system, isn't that, really, the problem we should be trying to solve?

Okay. Amanda, do you want to come in there?

Yes, can I add to that? England has abandoned its school targets for Russell Groups, and yet, through the Seren scheme, we still seem to be persisting with it. We're effectively investing quite a lot, relative to what we're investing elsewhere, on what is effectively now a study-in-England campaign. So, I think this is really very difficult, and I think it needs a rethink. The Seren scheme needs a rethink. We're really pleased with some of what's been said about that. The widening access aspects of this are really important, for the reasons we've already mentioned in relation to our least well off. So, I think this all needs, really, a big rethink. It's been extremely problematic.

Diolch yn fawr. Thank you.

Okay. Thank you. Vaughan, over to you now regarding equity of access for learners.

Thank you. It's been very interesting hearing the evidence and some of the nuance between the presentations. I want to go back to something you essentially referred to earlier, and that's about participation rates and equity in access. Universities Wales's paper talks about long-standing generational inequality that's being baked in. I'm interested in what you mean by that, so people don't have their own explanations of your evidence, and then what you think can be done to address those inequalities. Because in lots of our conversations about access, whether it's the Seren programme or anything else, there's this challenge of the number of people that are getting to a point where higher education is a real option for them. We see that both in the level 1 and level 2 further education entry, but also in the real challenges around A-level participation. So, what do you identify as the long-standing generational inequalities, and what do you want to see done about them? I appreciate that this isn't a, 'There's one intervention that will cure all ills', but I don't want to put words into your mouth about how you see that, and the policy answers you're looking for, and then how long that takes to feed through to changing participation rates in higher education, on the basis of what Ben Calvert has said that this is about getting people to participate in post-16 and post-18 education at a level that matches their skill and their potential, whether that's further or higher education. I completely take on board there are lots of vocational specifically targeted towards careers in higher education, and it isn't simply a learn for learning's sake. I think, sometimes, that old chestnut doesn't reflect where we are. So, I'm really interested in how you want to see that change delivered, and then an idea of how long that needs to take place. Because us politicians like to see things happen immediately, and certainly within electoral cycles, but I think this is a longer standing issue. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Amanda, would you like to start?

I saw you flip that one out to the wind there, Ben. [Laughter.]

[Inaudible.]

That is an absolutely huge question, and I wish I could give you all the answers to that, Vaughan. I just can't give you all the answers to that. I think that we do need to do some more work on it. I think that if—. Taking into account why do we have a wider gap in Wales than like areas elsewhere—I think we have to look at that and it goes right back to the school system. I think we have to take a whole-system approach. I actually think that we’re probably going to need to be quite brave and look at that whole system. It goes back to something Ben was talking about earlier: what are the outcomes we want to achieve here for people? And if we want to see social mobility, how is our education system going to support that?

We are seeing quite low aspiration. We do think some of the messaging and information that's getting out there is wrong. I do think that the piecemeal way in which we've approached it is wrong. I do think that when our Minister talks about a study and work in Wales programme, no, this isn't just gloss on the top. This is fundamentally reforming the way in which we talk about people's opportunities for the future. And I just don't think we've been doing enough of that. There's really quite low aspiration, but it's much more complicated than that, and I can't give you every answer. But I do think it's a whole-system approach. It's not just post 16 or pre 16. I do think that looking at compulsory education to 18 could really help us, as other parts of the UK are doing.

I think your phrase 'long-standing generational inequality' could mean different things to different people, though. So, I'm trying to understand what you mean by that, and accepting that to get things right post 18 and post 16, you need to get more of them right pre 16 and pre 18. That's the reason why we're having this inquiry: to look at post-16 choices and how the different sectors of our educational system do and don't work and what can be done to improve them. And I don't think anyone on the committee thinks that there'll be one neat recommendation that can cure everything. But I think even a range of the answers would be helpful in terms of how universities see that. And, you know, we've got a pretty clear view from work-based learning providers and further education.

I think from our point of view, what we're seeing is that if your parents haven't gone to university, you are much less likely to go to university. So, what we're seeing now is that generational pattern being baked in, and that not being broken through. And I think that is something that is more stark in Wales than it is elsewhere.

So, Vaughan, just by way of example, I think the participation gap for the least deprived in England is about 19 per cent. In Wales it's 26 per cent—just over. So, we've got a significant, again, 6 or 7 percentage point gap here. There is a cohort—there's something happening in that cohort. And actually, I don't think there is—I wish I had a magic wand, but I suspect this starts in preschool, this starts in primary school, this starts in all the work we need to do to lift people out of poverty so that they have the bandwidth to think about whether or not there are educational opportunities for them and their children and so on. So, I don't think there is a magic wand here. It's about, actually, what we need to do is go back, look at that hosepipe, and see where the leaks are all the way through that, so that, actually, the consequence of that is more students who are able to participate. And that's the issue. When we're having FE colleges that are doing that catch-up provision, as I said to you earlier on, what we've just got is fewer people able to participate at the next level, or having to go through an additional hurdle to do so. So, we need more success at that level, and we need to stretch them at the top end, and I do think that education up to 18 is the way to do that. But I don't have the answer. I don't have the data. I think this is the point: we need to have the data. Have we done the research we need to do to fully understand how that system is working and where the leaks in that hosepipe are?

Well, it's interesting, because Medr were in, they were talking a lot about the fact that they've got lots of data about a whole range of parts of the system, but it's still about how a policy intervention works. If you say that there's a lack of aspiration, some of that is cultural, likely. Some of that is probably also linking up opportunities in the economy. Because a point was made earlier in evidence about some students' anxiety about concerns over value for money and going to university, and the point there about not having explained fully the support available for students but also about—and it was part of my question earlier on today—how you promote value for money for people to make choices and understanding that in a range of areas, graduates are more likely to earn more over their life span. For other people, it will be a different route to getting a better job and that, actually, the point you've made, Ben, and I know further education will make, is that there's a lot of vocational study with higher skills in them that help to do that. So, it's about high-skilled education and skills that allow people to be economically successful, and that's—. I know what you said, Ben, within the group at USW you've got not just partners, but there are FE providers within that group as well. So, I'm trying to understand where that comes together. Is there a role for the Government to say, 'We want you all to be in the same place'? Is there a role for universities to talk with each other about what a more co-ordinated approach is? Is there a role for FE and HE? Because otherwise, the natural default will be to say, 'The Government needs to fix it.'

I think the challenge here—. I understand that point. So, I think the challenge here is that, actually, what we're talking about here is a resource base that's getting smaller. So, actually, as a consequence of that, the risk is that the dynamic becomes an increasingly intense competition from all parts of the system for a resource base that's smaller.

Yes.

How does the system work together to grow the pool? How does the system work together to raise all boats? And I don't think you can do that through a system that is based on competition, neither do I think that this needs to be something that is centrally controlled. I think there must be a space in which autonomous institutions with their own mission and purpose find some space—and we're trying to do this through our strategic alliance at the moment—moving that from something that is just simply based on trust into something perhaps more formal, where we pool some sovereignty to say, 'What does the economy look like, where are the skills gap, at what level do they need to go to and how do we collectively build and design?' That takes a long time.

Now, I don't know how far that can be incentivised because there probably should be—. It takes up a lot of bandwidth, Vaughan, at a time when we're all trying to make sure our own institutions are stable. I'm trying to deal with all the issues that USW has in its own finances. Having those ecosystem conversations about what this should look like that aren't silly, that are about centrally planning, takes up that time and bandwidth. And there's maybe something to be thought about there from Medr's perspective about how they can help create the spaces for us to have those conversations. I think they're best located in place, so, actually, you have gravity in place.

So, yes, we should be able to have good conversations with our alliance in our places and, indeed, with other HE providers in our places. And, of course, there are issues around competition rules that we would need to navigate in order that we could do that. So, I think these things best work in region and place, but I do think there is a question about whether or not the ecosystem we have does need to change. We need to grasp that conversation and we're trying to do that. As I said, I think there are models of that. We have a group structure; there are models that we can learn from that would allow us to do more of that thinking, but it's tough work; it takes up time and it's long term.

That's really interesting. I think given the other debate around higher education, that's an interesting perspective on independent institutions—how you work together, and what the mission and purpose is as well.

There must be a place in which—. And I think autonomy is very important. It's done an awful lot of good for institutions in terms of our ability to have a diverse, distinctive sector, but there must be a place in which, actually, one can cede some sovereignty into a pooled conversation about what a place requires and who's best to do what.

Vaughan, can I just bring Cefin in? He wants to come in on this subject.

Yes, sure.

Thank you, Vaughan. That's really interesting for me because, obviously, you value your independence as universities and institutions, and I clearly get that, but you've also mentioned as well during your presentation that you've asked the question about what kind of economy do we want in Wales and where are the future skills gaps. Clearly, Government has a role to play in that, so I'm just beginning—. I'm wondering where Government and you, in terms of that policy area, come together. How does that work?

So, we do have—. I mean, this isn't necessarily governmental, but, by way of example, we have a memorandum of understanding with Cardiff capital region, again, trying to find what's the right match here between the assets that we have. And by the way, that memorandum of understanding we have isn't just us to them; it's us plus our FE partners. And, indeed, more recently, we have convened meetings with Cardiff capital region that aren't just bilateral, but actually are including Cardiff and Cardiff Met. That should be right. There are examples in the system of that happening. There's the civic universities agreement in Manchester, by way of example, where some of that activity happens. Yorkshire universities are similar. I think, in region, you have gravity, right? You have gravity because you're proximal to the same economic challenges, and there are spaces that we can inform. I just think that now is the time to do more of that.

Can I say something on that? I think we've got areas, actually, where we're quite constrained. So, degree apprenticeships, I accept that our settlement in Wales on this, you know, gives us some—. There is constraint in this. But us having to wait for Government to effectively form a framework before we can deliver on degree apprenticeships, that has been a real barrier. You look at other places where they have dozens of programmes for degree apprenticeships, they can go out and talk to their employers in place and develop qualifications. We're awarding bodies. So, that idea that you've got that autonomy to go out there and deliver that, in real time, flexibly, when it's needed, not actually when Government can chug, chug, chug, chug through the process of developing a framework. We need much, much, much more flexibility in terms of how we're doing some of that.

Okay. We're running over now. We're seven minutes—

Sorry. There's just one final question, and that's about transport.

Lisa, did you want to come in on this?

I don't know if Vaughan wants to come in.

On transport?

It's lovely to see you, by the way, Vaughan. I don't know if Vaughan wants to come in, and then maybe I can just conclude or summarise what I was just going to say on the back of what Amanda said, and then maybe on what Vaughan wants to ask. I'm happy to do—.

Well, actually, if I ask the question about transport, because I'm pretty confident you'll have something to say on transport, Lisa. One of the barriers that comes through from learners, which they talk about, is transport for all post-16 options. I'm interested in your own experience of how much is travel cost an issue for learners in all of their post-16 choices. And I'm sure you'll want to address the earlier points as well, Lisa.

Thank you, Vaughan, and as I said, it is lovely to see you. So, a couple of things there. With our apprentices who live in our more rural areas, transport is an issue because of the lack of transport availability. So, I guess that's something for our bus infrastructure and not necessarily for the wages of a young person and the impact there. But it does impact upon accessibility and choices as well. Apprentices don't get the education maintenance allowance, et cetera, so they don't get any additional, we'll call it 'life support', if you like. So, yes, okay, they're on apprenticeship pay, but that then depends on the employer as well, and how much they actually get. If you're in a low-income family, in order to get you to that employer, that can be difficult. So, until they get their first salary, that additional support usually comes from that family, and that always hinders them. So, transport is an issue. In some areas, you do have discounted travel passes, et cetera, but, again, there isn't that parity across the board for the type of post-16 learner and the availability of that. If they're an apprentice, they aren't able to access it, because they aren't classed as a student, so there are some issues there. They can get young person discount, but it's not always suitable, so there is that.

And then, just very quickly, on the back of what Amanda was just saying, in the inquiry to apprenticeship pathways, we were saying that we all want to address and meet Government priorities for strong economic growth, et cetera, and there's been a massive change in the levels and availability of apprenticeship programmes to meet that, but, inevitably, we need a skills plan, if you like. So, it does go back, similarly to what Ben said as well, to the fact that we need that overarching skills plan, so that we can meet the needs of Government priorities and what we want to do in Wales.

And if I may, very quickly, be as crude as to say, when we're talking about equality, or lack of equality, my big concern—and Vaughan will know where I'm coming from on this—is that we had a cut to apprenticeships last year. We welcome the protection of the apprenticeship budget this year, but it does mean there's no investment in apprenticeships. That means there are going to be fewer opportunities for young people, post 16, to go on to apprenticeship programmes. In the region of 5,000 last year; in the region of 5,000 next year. So, there's a little plea from me there. Vaughan, I hope you don't mind me just sliding that in. But thank you.

No, that's fine. Well, we've all got to balance our budgets, haven't we?

Yes.

Right. I need to bring this session to a close. We have got some questions to ask you regarding data, and if there's anything we didn't cover today, please do write in to us, to the committee. Thank you very much. Can I just say 'thank you' for attending? You will be sent a transcript for checking in due course as well.

Thank you, Chair.

Thank you very much. Thank you.

Diolch. Thank you.

Item 6 is papers to note. So, we've got four papers to note today, the full details of which are set out on the agenda in the paper pack. Are Members content to note the papers? Yes, thank you.

Under item 7, a motion under Standing Order 17.42 to resolve to exclude the public from the remainder of today's meeting. Are you happy to do that, in accordance with Standing Orders? Yes. Thank you. We'll go into private now. Thank you.