Committee for the Scrutiny of the First Minister

Okay, we'll move on to the actual session and, for members of the public to be aware, we will break this up into two sessions. The first one is on a theme, and the theme today is the education of young people and future generations issues. The second session will be topical scrutiny. We will do the first session, and then we'll have a short break, for the public to be aware, and then we'll come back to the topical session.

Can I welcome the First Minister, Eluned Morgan, to the meeting? Perhaps you'd like to introduce your officials for the record, please.

So, I've got with me today Emma Williams, who's the director general for culture, education and Welsh language, and Georgina Haarhoff, director of education. Then we've got Jo Salway, director for social partnerships, employability and fair work, and Rae Cornish, deputy director for sustainable futures.

Thank you for that. Thank you for attending, and we'll get on to business straight away. I suppose the first question, because it is important to understand—. You had five priorities before. They included boosting standards in schools and colleges. But it doesn't seem to be reflected in the more up-to-date priorities you've provided as the Welsh Government. So, I suppose, in a sense, what we want to be reassured of is the importance in which you consider education. And why isn't there any explicit reference to educational standards, in particular, in your current list of priorities?

Well, thanks very much for inviting me this morning. Just to start with, in terms of the priorities, as you'll know, this came about as a consequence of the listening exercise that I undertook, and I took my cue from the public, and the issues that they brought forward. Let's be clear, education is absolutely a priority for me. One of the things that was important to me was for the public to be able to track the difference I was making as First Minister. So, for me, it was important that we could get measurable targets in place, get matrices that people could hold me to account on, and it was more difficult to do that in education compared to some of the other areas. And the time frame needed to turn some of this around is a bit longer than the two years I had from the moment I was elected as First Minister to the next election. So, I focused on the things that were deliverable during that time frame—so, things like filling 160,000 potholes, which we're already doing across the country. So, they were really measurable things that came directly from the public. Now, that's not to say that education isn't important, it absolutely is, and if you look at how much additional money we've put into education over that period, that tells its own story.

I think that the other thing worth noting is that jobs were critical within that, and 100,000 apprenticeships is within that target of measurable targets that we set out there. So, I think opportunity for every family is the headline. Education is fundamental to making sure that there are opportunities for people. So, whilst it's not one of the measurable targets, I think it is clear that, if you want to give families opportunities, you have to make sure that people get the kind of support that they need in terms of education.

I fully understand your argument that some of the issues are long term, and those that are measurable are long term, but, in a sense, so are jobs, because investment into the country brings jobs down the line, not necessarily straight away. So, there are many other aspects that perhaps also have long-term targets, but people are concerned about education. We've seen that ourselves, very much, not just from the teaching profession itself but from many members of the public who are concerned about the standards and the attainment levels in education. And one measurement is clearly our results every summer. So, it is possible to measure some of the targets. So, I'm just surprised that we aren't focusing more on achievement in education and standards in schools, particularly when you have Estyn reports. So, it is surprising to understand that you're not looking at education as an important aspect.

Well, let's be clear, education is absolutely critical. We have armies of people across the Government making sure that we drive up those standards. There has been massive investment in it. When you are a leader, you have to demonstrate what your priorities are and you need to be clear. I wanted people to be able to measure me on the priorities. If you're going to try and look at tracking GCSE results, you need a longer time to make that big difference. It's not that we're not doing it; we're absolutely doing it, and actually we're seeing better results, certainly. We've always had a good record on A-levels; GCSEs are now improving as well. Our numeracy and literacy rates are improving. So, I think that it's absolutely clear that education is critical. It comes under opportunities for every family, and so it comes under that umbrella.

So, perhaps the term 'priority' is the wrong thing, because if you're talking about, 'I want to measured on my priorities', it's more, 'I want to be measured on what's achievable in the timescale rather than actually what my priorities are', because the priority is education.

I think that's fair enough. I wanted people to be able to measure the difference I was making as a leader, and when you've got a time constraint of two years, you have to be able to measure and for the public to be able to see that difference.

Cefin.

I just wanted to come in very briefly. Listening, of course, is really important and you've done that exercise, and you mentioned leadership as well. You will probably understand the disappointment in the education sector that this has appeared to be deprioritised as a priority for you, and we know how important education is to get people out of poverty, to get them into jobs, better life opportunities as well. It is surprising that, maybe, that still hadn't been kept by you as a key priority.

Well, look, I went out on the streets and the honest truth is that it didn't come up as often as I expected it to. That's the truth of what I heard. Nevertheless, because we were concerned about this as being one of the priorities for Government, we made sure that it came under the umbrella of opportunities for all, and what we've done—. You can see, actually, by the increased investment we've put into education, the fact that, actually, it remains a priority and we are seeing a difference. But I've tried to explain that I was looking for a measurable difference that you could make over two years, and, with the best will in the world, trying to change GCSE results within two years for people to be able to measure me as leader on, I think—. It's going on all the time anyway. We're improving all the time. It's not that it's not happening; it's just that I wanted people to be able to see the difference that I as leader was making.

Okay. Jenny.

You say it's a priority, but there's a campaign by headteachers, which I'm sure you're aware of, which is saying that the Welsh Government is not passporting through the additional consequential money from the UK Government into education. I wondered if you could just clarify that, because it's important if you're going to assert that you are putting more money into education.

I think it's really important that we get this straight. We spend 7 per cent more on education in Wales compared to England. So, let's just be clear about that as a statistic: £1,850 per head. That's £128 more per head than they do in England. We've had the biggest capital investment project that we've seen in generations. We've put significant additional funding into additional learning needs, and you've heard on the radio this morning that, in England, they're looking to us as an example of how to do something about the problems they have in relation to England on ALN. Listen, we've got a long way to go, let's be clear, but people are looking to us as an example of how you can do things differently.

I think the other thing to bear in mind is the way we fund schools, and it goes via the RSG. In England, it goes directly from the Government, so it's a completely different method. You keep that figure of the 7 per cent we spend more in Wales than they do in England. That's the key statistic, so I think it's really important that that is put up there in bold.

Carolyn.

At the Children and Young People's Education Committee, the Cabinet Secretary for Education said she asked that more funding would go in via the local government and housing MEG into education as a pathway. Hopefully, now that we've had that budget deal with Plaid, we can put more money into local government. Local government doesn't ring-fence education funding, though. We have had requests through petitions that it is ring-fenced, especially for ALN as well. How would you like to see, going forward, that local government does put that funding into education? I know you can't force it, but would you ask it?

And just briefly, in Wales, we make sure nobody is left behind, so we've had breakfast clubs for over 10 years, free school meals, uniform grants, Fit, Fed and Read during the summer, summer play schemes. You're seeing that now being repeated under the Labour Government in England. So, how does that make you feel? And also, because we have free school meals—

Give the First Minister a chance to answer some of those questions.

Okay. I just wanted to say, because we have free school meals now, they're given, but if schools need to register their children on free school meals to get that extra funding, so, to local authorities to get that extra funding, how are we going to address that? Thank you.

You haven't got to put all the points in one go. [Laughter.]

Yes, there's a lot to cover there, but, look, the key thing is that now we have a budget deal, there will be a 4.5 per cent increase in funding through the RSG for local authorities. The way we work in Wales is that we give them the responsibility then to determine how that is spent. Our understanding is that whilst we give a notional amount of money for education, the fact is that it is the priority also for local government, and they give over the notional amount of money. So, I just think it's quite important to set that out as well.

Just in terms of how we do that, I do think it's important for us to recognise that, in England, they've only just introduced free school breakfasts. We've been doing that for 21 years. We have provided more than 50 million free school meals to primary school children since that was rolled out in 2022—100 million free breakfasts in primary schools. And, as you say, there are additional things that we've put in, like the pupil development grant, so that's targeted specifically at those children on free school meals. It's become a little bit more tricky now, because, particularly in primary schools, they're getting them for free, so parents, perhaps, are not registering, and there's a danger that schools are not getting the money because the parents haven't signed up. It's really important that they do, because that's really helpful for the schools, and it brings in that additional funding. And that's before we start on the fact that we've increased things like the education maintenance allowance.

So, there's a huge amount to do. We can go into the details of ALN and all of those other things, but the fact is that money for education has been going up, and, if you look at just this year, it's gone up 7.8 per cent. These are not insignificant figures when you look at the overall amount going in. Look, I think in Lynne Neagle you've got a real champion who is like a dog with a bone on education. But the fact is that we spend 7 per cent more on education in Wales compared with England. It's really important that we get that message out there.

I've got questions in from Peter Fox and then Mark Isherwood.

Thank you, Chair, and good morning, First Minister. I'm moving on slightly, actually, so I'm not sure if Mark's was pertinent to the last question, because I wanted also to pick on another area of key education priority, or what to some may seem isn't a priority at the moment, and that's university funding. We've heard from Universities Wales that they suggest there's about a £77 million deficit across the various institutions across Wales, and they seem very disappointed that they don't seem to feature in any of the budget negotiations. Well, of course, if growth is important for us and skills are important to us, shouldn't that have been a bit of a priority as well within the budget-setting process, perhaps? If you'd like to reflect on that, First Minister.

Thanks. We're all very aware of the difficulties that universities are in, and higher education generally. There's a whole range of factors that are responsible for this, including Brexit, including the fact that we've lost a lot of international students. So, there's a whole raft of reasons why universities are struggling. I don't know if I can bring in Emma.

By all means. Thank you, First Minister. Yes, universities are facing difficult times, I'm very much aware of that. We've made a small increase to the tuition fee that will generate circa £19 million additional funding into universities, but that is a relatively small part of their overall funding package. They generate funding through a number of significant routes, of which tuition fees are only one. As the First Minister says, there are a raft of factors that affect their income generation: student numbers generally, increased competition within the sector, the withdrawal of European funding for some research activities. So, there are a host of really complex issues there.

The Minister for Further and Higher Education has already set out quite recently that she is intending to do some work with the sector to look at how we work towards a far more sustainable HE and FE sector in the longer term. Post Christmas, there will be a call for evidence, asking the sector to come forward and help us with that work so that we can shape the sector for the future.

Thank you.

Mark.

If I could go back to the former points and—. Sorry, I hope you can hear me. If I go back to the former point about school funding, I think reference was made to correspondence all committee members received from the National Association of Head Teachers who are not only educationists, but, one assumes, quite well educated themselves, expressing their concerns about funding allocated to schools in the budget for next year. They used a figure—and we don't know about the accuracy of this—that just £39 million had been allocated to core school funding. We do understand that the formula and the methodology of distribution in Wales is different, and you've reiterated that in your previous answer, but the Welsh Local Government Association is citing a £137 million predicted deficit in school budgets and a social services deficit of £200 million, and that the uplift for local government will do little to address what they say is—quote—the crisis in schools. So, what is your understanding of the proportion of the uplift from Westminster that will be provided in consequential funding for schools? And what discussions have taken place with local authorities to ensure that schools do receive the additional funding, or are there no discussions?

You'll be aware that, as a result of the agreement with Plaid Cymru, there is going to be an additional £112 million funding for local government, and, obviously, it's up to them then to determine how that is spent. And as I say, generally speaking, they spend more than the notional money that we give them for education, proving that it is, in fact, their priority as well. So, that's a 4.5 per cent increase generally going to local authorities. And clearly, as you know, Mark, in Wales, our system is very different from the way they fund it in England; we don't have academies, we don’t have a system where they are paid directly from the centre. It is up to local authorities and there's local accountability in terms of how they spend that money. The fact is that, in particular, the pressures as a result of additional learning needs is putting up, significantly, the pressure on schools. But compared to—. Last year, we saw an increase of 12 per cent in terms of money going to additional learning needs. So, that is a pressure that is happening across the whole of the United Kingdom and I think it's probably worth reflecting on that. There is massive change in terms of demand from within the system.

Cefin.

Can I just probe you a little bit further on the consequentials? So, the £113 million extra that is going to go to local government as part of the budget deal with Plaid Cymru is to be welcomed and I'm really hoping that most of that money will actually get into schools, but the consequential that, I think, is about £329 million, which is coming down from the Treasury to us here—could you possibly explain to us how that money is going to be spent and how much, broadly, is going to be spent on education? I know that we need to differentiate a little bit between education and schools, but, overall, could you possibly give us an idea of how much of that pie chart is going to be spent on education?

Because of the way our system works, as you know as a an ex-councillor, the way we fund our education system, our school system in particular, is via the revenue support grant, and we give local authorities, who we think are closer to the ground, who've got better sensitivity in terms of what the needs are in their areas—you know, what's right for Ceredigion might be very different from what's needed in Monmouthshire or in the centre of Newport—. It's right for us to give the autonomy of decision making to local authorities. So, we can't say, 'This is how much.' I mean, we can work that out afterwards, but it's up to the local authorities themselves. What we do is to say, 'Look, we're going to give this much money to education. That's the nominal amount we think should be going', but what's interesting is not just that we're giving significantly more money to education, but also that the local authorities themselves are also saying, 'You know what? This is a priority for us as well, and we're going to go beyond the nominal amount.'

So, leaving aside the RSG money, how much of that consequential would be left for the rest of education?

So, money that's not via the RSG?

Yes.

Okay. So, in the centre. Everybody's going to get a 2 per cent uplift, so that's the beginning of it. What we'll be doing is working through that now in the next few weeks, before we put the detailed budget in front of people. I don't know, Emma, if you've got any further details on that.

Georgina may be able to give a little bit more detail on the schools side. In FE, we're providing an additional £21.5 million to Medr. That will support sixth forms and FE and the sector, split out in a slightly different way. There's also additional funding—. The Cabinet Secretary for Education has prioritised schools, and ALN in particular, within her budget. But, as the First Minister sets out, a difficult budget-setting round. Quite a lot of the decisions around schools funding will sit with the local authorities, who'll now be going through their budget-setting process, working with schools. And then, from the centre, we have large direct funding, such as the pupil deprivation grant [correction: pupil development grant]. Georgina may be able to say a little bit more on some of those.

Exactly that, Emma. Most of the funding for schools comes from local authorities, as we've just talked about, but, obviously, there's the money that comes through the education main expenditure group for schools. And the Cabinet Secretary has prioritised, as Emma said, schools in that space, particularly around additional learning needs. I think the number is—I've just got it here, as it happens—£9.1 million, which is just over 24 per cent of the revenue uplift for the main expenditure group across education, is going to support additional learning needs in schools, building on the extra £8.2 million that the Cabinet Secretary announced in-year to support additional learning needs earlier in the autumn. And then there's a £16.4 million increase to the local authority education grant, which is money that goes from us direct to local authorities to fund education specifically, and that's a 4.1 per cent increase. The local authority education grant includes money that goes direct to local authorities. It includes money that goes direct to schools as well, so it's a direct funding route to schools, but, as Emma says, includes a number of other types of grants, including well-being, school counselling, wider equity pieces, family engagement officers, all of those wider support processes, as well as the curriculum grants.

So, just to clarify for everyone, we'll see it when we see the details of the budget and we'll be able to look through the different budget lines. When the detail comes out, we'll be able to see that increase in the education that is different to some of the issues, because the schools fund is from the RSG, which is local government. So, somewhere in there we should be able to work out where the consequentials have been shared out, effectively.

Yes. But let's be clear—

I understand some of the challenges, but we should—

Yes. But, listen, I think it's really important—. Look, we're a devolved Government. We don't just copy whatever they do in Westminster, okay. That's what devolution is. Now, if we want to spend more on education, as we've decided to—7 per cent more, okay—then that's up to us. But it may be that we're spending more already. The amount we've spent on capital in schools compared to England per head is massively different. So, they may need to catch up with us now, when it comes to capital expenditure in schools. We're all starting from different places. We will never just look at what happens in England and say, 'Right, we'll do that', because that's not how devolution works; we're all in different places. It may be that we want to spend our money on making sure that our children have a full belly, as a priority, in terms of their learning, ahead of other things that may be priorities in England. So, that is what devolution means. Let's be absolutely clear: we do not just take a consequential and pass it through. That's not how devolution works. But, when it comes to education, we spend 7 per cent more than they do in England.

I want to move on, because we've spent a lot of time on the budget, and it is critical to how we, actually, support the system to deliver on the attainments. But we still need to talk about some of those delivery issues, actually, and learner attainment is one. I want to go to Jenny.

Thank you. Just briefly, what's your assessment of the attainment levels in both GCSEs and A-levels across Wales this year, compared with other years?

Well, I think our results have been encouraging, but clearly we've got more work to do. I want to see better standards in Wales. If you look at year 11 GCSEs, they're better than in 2019, pre pandemic. You just think about the cohorts of children, and what they went through, and the disruption to their education. We're still working through how that worked.

We've always been not bad at A-levels. I think we've seen a notable improvement on 2019 in terms of the higher levels of pupils achieving A to C. When it comes to GCSE results, we've seen positive improvements when it comes to maths, numeracy and English. I think it's really important to note that direct comparisons with England are difficult, because of the cohorts you put in, the entry patterns—how do you do it? We've been trying to get more people who may not have put themselves forward to sit GCSEs in the past—we've been trying to encourage more to do it. Clearly, if there's a reluctance, the chances are that they're going to bring the overall amount down, but it's the right thing to do for children. And they may have a different approach in England. The other thing is that the number of placed university applicants from Wales has increased. So, we're heading in the right direction, but I think there's more work to do. I don't know, Georgina, if you would like to add to that.

No, that's exactly right.

Certainly, in the school where I'm a governor, there are some very excellent results. One of the issues is the attainment gap between free school mealers and non-free school mealers. In Wales, the gap is 11 per cent overall. It's a lot lower than that in the school where I'm a governor because there is a lot of focus on ensuring that every young person is getting the education they need. But attendance is a continuous issue. If it's still slightly less than 90 per cent attendance, that is a significant problem. I think it's two days a week, or is it one day a week? But anyway, my maths isn't great. What more can we do to ensure that every school is focusing on the attainment needs of all pupils? How well do you think we now assess school performance—driving up that focus in some schools that neglected that in order to simply get that benchmark of five A to Cs?

I'll start, and then I'll bring Georgina in, if you don't mind. First of all, let's be clear that poverty is a key indicator when it comes to the differences in attainment, and we're determined, as a Government, to address that issue and to focus attention on it. We have a pupil deprivation grant [correction: pupil development grant], which is £128 million, which is not a small amount of money, to address that issue. It is not having the impact that we'd hoped. I think it's probably worth pointing out that the COVID pandemic exacerbated those socioeconomic disparities. So, we're still working through that cohort that were affected by COVID.

I think the other thing you mentioned was pupil attendance. If you're not in school, you're going to get worse results. That's the way it is. It's really obvious. We know that getting pupils back into school has been tough after COVID; they went down significantly. We've put a huge amount of effort into that. I'm pleased to say that overall attendance in primary school has now risen to 92.6 per cent. That is an improvement. In secondary schools, it's 89 per cent. It's not good enough. If we've got 10 per cent of our pupils absent—less than 10 per cent in primary—you are setting them up for a future of failure.

We spend a huge amount of money in making sure we've got family engagement officers—£3 million on that. There's £2 million on enrichment activities. I went to this lovely football club the other day up in north Wales, where kids who were just not engaging in school were being taught in a football club, which was just better suited to them. So, trying to be a bit creative in how you address it, and trying to do that individual hand-holding, is important. Georgina, do you want to add to that?

Just briefly. You talked about the family engagement officers, which have obviously expanded significantly over the course of recent years. We are now investing £10.5 million overall on that. It reflects the huge amount of work and effort that schools are putting into trying to bring learners back in, particularly after the impact of the COVID pandemic on just how they engaged with school. As the First Minister said, there are amazing examples across Wales, across all schools, of what they are doing with both the children and their families and the effort they're putting in to engage parents. Community-focused schools is another example, the enrichment investment, the school holiday enrichment programme as well.

I just wanted to reflect on the questions about the role of the school, and how much work the teachers and teaching assistants are now putting into engaging directly with families, bringing them onto site, helping them to try and help those learners feel confident coming into school. So, it is difficult, isn't it? Because young people do need to be in school in order to learn, in most cases. Obviously, we've got different types of alternative provision and educated other than at school, but being on site and being there with the teachers is a really important part of it. But wider issues around school counselling, well-being, mental health, emotional and behavioural issues are all the issues that schools are trying to deal with to ensure learners are in school. So, the effort is absolutely there and the funding is there. It's just a really long tail of COVID to some degree.

We can agree it's complex, because there are multiple factors involved. It's poverty, it's culture, the legacy of COVID, and it's also the increasing understanding about neurodivergence. How well are schools doing in ensuring that we have we can shape the curriculum to the individual's needs?

I was going to come back to that point about curriculum. The opportunity for the Curriculum for Wales is essentially a flexible curriculum that is designed around individual learning needs and that really provides the opportunity to provide engaging education within a school and within the local community. It's being rolled out. You see huge successes, you see amazing innovative approaches to learning that really help learners to develop. It is fair to say, and you'll have picked this up from some of the Estyn reports, that it's not consistent collectively across Wales, but we're absolutely moving in the right direction. There's still a huge amount of positivity around the curriculum and what it can achieve for learners.

We know that good practice is a bad traveller, so how well is Estyn managing to ensure that school leadership is shared? Because these children only have one chance. So, what's the role of Estyn in ensuring good practice is being adopted where the situation is not good enough?

Estyn obviously publish their annual report and their interim report, which provides an update on where the system is doing well and the challenges—

What's the Government's assessment of how well they're doing? I'm fully aware of their work.

Estyn have undertaken quite a lot of change over recent years in order to make their inspection regime more modern and flexible. They've obviously now moved to a six-year inspection process, from the eight-year cycle, I think, and they've got interim visits so they can provide a little bit less pressure on schools, because obviously that was a concern. They keep in closer touch with schools to make sure that they can provide ongoing support and reflection. Their reports provide a lot of good practice case studies, and they have a peer inspector process to make sure that they bring in schools on their inspections so you have peer support for the inspection regime. They've moved a lot and changed a lot around trying to make sure they are supporting the school system to improve, not just inspecting it from the outside and telling it what it's doing wrong.

Those are the improved outputs. Is it too soon to be able to assess the positive outcomes from that renewed strategy?

I think it’s too early. I think they're looking at it. It's only been a year or two, but they're absolutely looking at it and they're really focused on it.

Thank you.

John.

Diolch, Cadeirydd. It is very alarming, isn't it, the attainment gap, when we look at the figures for achievement at A to C grades at GCSE level being 39 per cent for those eligible for free school meals, compared to over 68 per cent for those not in that situation. It is quite alarming, isn't it? Hearing about some of the good practice around enrichment activities, the family engagement, community-focused schools, all of that's very good, but we've also heard it's not really consistent across Wales. I just wonder to what extent, with all of that good work, there's a particular focus on the schools serving our more deprived communities so that they really are community focused, the families really are being engaged with effectively, and all those enrichment activities are taking place. Is there a particular focus on those schools serving our most deprived communities with all of that?

The pupil deprivation grant [correction: pupil development grant] is how we focus that. As I say, £128 million is put into that. There is an expectation on local authorities to target that money. It follows the pupil, so what's important is that people who are eligible actually sign up. That's really important.

I think it's probably worth also mentioning the school essentials grant. That's £13 million there to help people with support for school uniform and other things, and that makes a difference. If you're a child from a poor family, you don't want to turn up looking different from everybody else. So, having that makes a difference; that's £125 per pupil there.

I think it's probably worth stating that things have changed a lot since, certainly, I was in school. You had one teacher in school and very little else. Now there's a whole army of support within schools, including 30,000 teaching assistants. We have these support officers who go and chase down parents, who go and ask them, 'What do you need?', 'How do we support you?' We have mental health support people in schools. A lot of kids struggle. So, what we've done is to make sure that the mental health support is not just there in schools, but also when it comes to our health services.

It used to be very difficult and it took a long time to get that mental health support. That is no longer the case. Children are being assessed—92 per cent of them within 28 days. They would give their right arm for that in England. We're in a very different place compared to where we were. It's 28 days after that in terms of intervention. Again, we're up to about 80 per cent of children being seen within the time frame. Those things are really important and make a difference in terms of not just getting them back into school, but keeping them in school. That's a challenge as well. I don't know, Georgina, if you'd like to add. No. Okay.

I want to bring Mark Isherwood and Cefin in, then I want to move on to Peter Fox.

Thank you very much. We know that schools in England with the highest levels of free school meals significantly outperform schools in Wales with the highest levels of free school meals. Figures on your watch show that persistent absence, although slightly improved, remains high. But exclusions are rising. There were 32,000 in 2022-23, admittedly before your time. There is wide variation across local authorities, more children are learning outside school, and pupils with additional learning needs and children eligible for free school meals are missing out across all measures. How do you respond to that, not so much in terms of outputs, but in recognising the causes of those very worrying outcomes for the very children who are falling behind, perhaps the lost 50 per cent that were first, in my experience, reported on in Wales two decades ago?

As I've said right from the beginning, poverty is a key factor in terms of determining your outcome. For me, this is a multifaceted thing that we need to approach. What we need to do is to not only make sure that the next generation does not fall into poverty, by making sure they're well educated and they can get good jobs, but also by making sure that the parents of the children who are there today also have good jobs, which is why things like the investment summit are really important. Because what we've been doing is we've been training people up, and this is really important. If you educate people and then there are no jobs for them, that's really frustrating, or they get a job that doesn't reflect the qualifications that they have, that's really frustrating, and also it's reflected in pay. So, that's why landing new investment into Wales, for me, is absolutely critical. New investment is more likely to come if you've got a stable Government that knows what it's doing, and that's why that investment summit was really important. You know, they want to come. That's how we're going to get money into people's pockets. That's how you start to turn this circle.

For the past 10 years or so, 14 years or so, we've been trying to protect the first phase of devolution, which was settling it in, establishing it. The second phase has been about making sure that we defend devolution against austerity. And the third phase now is to say, 'Actually, austerity has ended. Let's take the brakes off and let's get people into work. Let's drive the economy.' For me, tackling poverty is about job creation. If you start getting that right, you start to create a positive circle, rather than the vicious circle that we've been in for a long time.

And I'm sure we'll have a discussion about that in the topical session as well. Cefin.

Diolch. We all know that behind every successful learner, there's a good teacher, and my question is about teacher recruitment. So, you set a target for the last academic year of training 1,056 secondary schoolteachers. Now, I think only 335 passed their teaching qualification. In the targeted priority subjects, for example, science, and through the medium of Welsh in particular, only two physics teachers were recruited and qualified, one biology teacher, and no chemistry teachers. Now, that is extremely worrying in terms of the general attainment in Wales, but particularly Welsh medium. So, why do you think, for nearly 10 years, that you've failed to reach the targets that you set for teacher recruitment?

Look, this is a global issue. Trying to attract teachers, new teachers, into the profession is something that people across the world are confronting. One of my best friends is a director of education at the World Bank Group, and he tells me that this is not a Welsh problem, this is a global problem. So, I think we do have to be creative in terms of how we go about teaching. I think there are opportunities in terms of how we teach in future—you know, the use of AI, the use of new technologies, making sure we do things like e-sgol. We put a lot of incentives into the system, particularly when it comes to physics and maths and Welsh language. We put a lot of grants on the table to try and get more people into that. So, we'll keep doing those things, but we are up against a global challenge. Have you got anything to add, Georgina?

Yes, just briefly. I mean, it is exactly as you say: it is really challenging, and, obviously, particularly in secondary schools, particularly in those specific subjects like the STEM subjects and maths, and also particularly in Welsh-medium schools. We do have the incentive structures and the teaching incentive to go into those areas, including the minority ethnic grant and the Welsh-medium grants, including the Cynllun Pontio, which is about trying to get primary school Welsh-medium teachers into secondary school. So, we've got a range of incentives already. It does remain challenging. Some of that may be a little bit because of some of the challenges within schools, and recognising some of the issues the Member talked about, the exclusions and the impact, the sense that there is a pressure on schools at the moment, and it's not such an attractive profession to go into.

The Cabinet Secretary has developed a strategic education workforce plan, which will build in some of the issues for Welsh-medium teachers as well. It's thinking about all the issues that the workforce is facing within Wales, and how we try and make it a more attractive and more satisfying and fulfilling job opportunity, and how we go about it, because you're right, we're just not getting the people who are coming in wanting and applying for those roles.

Yes. So, the incentives in England are far more attractive than the ones that we have here. Do you have a sense of whether they've succeeded because of that incentive scheme that is more rewarding, perhaps, for young people?

The Cabinet Secretary, I believe, felt that putting more funding into incentives was one of the things that she would have liked to have done. So, I think it's something in that sort of space. We don't have any clear evaluation of it overall that really gives a sense that the incentives make that much of a difference. I expect they would make a difference, and I believe they do, but I don't think there is a full evaluation yet. I think they are part of the toolbox, aren't they?

Just to add, I think it is worth saying that, actually, a route into teaching is via those teaching assistants and support staff, so they get a taste for it. You must have seen, like me, thousands of young people coming back from university or using their summer holidays or taking a year out before and getting a taste for teaching. I think that's not a bad thing, so that they can then be bitten by that bug and actually see the opportunities.

That, again, didn't happen years ago. So, if you look at the number of teachers, there are 25,000 teachers, but there are 29,000 support staff. So, that's a potential route to get them into the system. I think it is worth reflecting time and again that it's not just about the teachers now: it is about the teachers; about the teaching assistants; it's about the school counsellors; the educational psychologists; the youth workers; the play workers; the family engagement officers; the education welfare officers; the specialist teachers. I don't know about you, Cefin, but none of those existed when I was growing up. You have got to put the kind of support around now. We come back to Jenny's point about the differentials. That's where you make a difference, through that wraparound additional resource. It's not all just about what happens in the classroom.

I will add to that that it is about leadership as well. I might come back to that if I get time afterwards and want to input some personal experience. Okay. I want to move on. Peter Fox.

Thank you, Chair. First Minister, I would like to focus a little bit on school improvement. I think you will agree—everybody will agree—that it is absolutely fundamental to driving attainment and the improvements we all want. I know you talked earlier about the 7 per cent additional funding we spend on education in Wales, but it doesn't seem to be translating to commensurate sort of benefits. I'm just wondering, and some might say it is because we keep coming out with new initiatives and different things all the time; we're playing around with the system, trying to strive for something better. And a prime example of that will be the consortia. I remember the consortia being started. I was part of some of those earlier discussions. Do you think they are a failed experiment, recognising now that we are moving away from them, we are going back to the old local authority model?

Look, they were around in 2014-15, which was a different time. That was 10 years ago. The world has moved on. Things have moved on. I think they made a significant contribution to system support, particularly in helping the roll-out of the new curriculum. I think they were absolutely important for that time. I think the situation is different. There were eight out of 22 local authorities in Estyn categories at the time, so there needed to be more support there.

I think it's important for us to recognise that there has been major societal change and disruption. We have had a reform programme. So, what we've been doing with the new approach is to strengthen the local authority role. We're looking for a more integrated approach to school improvement across local authorities. We are absolutely determined to reduce duplication and bureaucracy. That's what we have been trying to do, but we recognise that building capacity and collaboration across local authorities is also fundamental.

What’s important now is that we also look to the future. And what we’ve got is the establishment of Dysgu, which is the education improvement team [correction: Dysgu and the education improvement team], which will ensure that coherence of clarity for schools and local authorities. So, it’s who's responsible for what—that is absolutely clear. And, I think, perhaps, under the other system, it wasn’t as clear as it might have been.

So, the other thing to point out is that we’ve moved from the 'done to' to the 'done with'. So, you’re much more likely to bring people along with you if you work with them, rather than say, 'This is what you’re going to do.' As I say, we’ve reduced bureaucracy and there's clarity on roles, accountability and the responsibilities. And, as I say, we’ve changed from the national academy of leadership to Dysgu [correction: we've changed to Dysgu], which is also going to, we hope, drive standards. Anything else? No.

Go on, Peter.

Again, it's another initiative, which, hopefully, will make some positive changes. But I remember the days when I was used to be leader of a council, and we had an improvement service. And the challenge was: how do we maintain a robust and resilient improvement service in local authorities, especially those with hard-strapped budgets? And we talked earlier about the pressures that are going to be on schools.

Have you got concerns that local authorities might not be able to establish the improvement functions they need in the schools to be able to drive forward that change? Have you anxieties, or are you going to—. Are there ways that you can provide additional resource to help the improvement function?

Can I ask Georgina to come in?

Yes, of course. So, the model that we have moved forward with is built on, as the First Minister said, the expectation that local authorities will use the expertise already in schools to support their school improvement function. And a number of local authorities can already show how they’re doing this, by bringing school leaders into the council on a sort of secondment basis, maybe a bit of time a week, to help them advise and bring the voice of the profession into the council. So, it’s built on a collaborative model across schools. That’s the first part of it. So, it’s a slightly different model than before, in that we’re using the capacity in the schools themselves and building it around that.

The second part of it is that we are expecting local authorities to work in partnership with each other. Lots of local authorities already do that, and have really good voluntary partnerships. And the model that we’ve moved towards is that, although the functions remain with local authorities—the curriculum, ALN, school improvement, that we’ve brought together—the way that they work across different local authorities is varied across Wales, depending on how they want to build some of their functionality around it. So, you’ll find, in certain parts of Wales, that the south-east has a particular model, the south has a particular model, the west has a particular model, the north. They’re different models, but all of them are working in partnership, in different ways, to make sure that they, as local authorities, are being as efficient as they possibly can be with the functions and the work that they do.

Thank you for that. But I'm still a bit anxious about the capacity within schools to be able to create that partnership improvement capacity. And I say that in the context of looking at what Estyn have recently shared in their early insights report of 2024-25. So, whilst they were relatively content with primary and nursery provision in many ways, it clearly wasn't the same at secondary. And there's a whole raft of concerns they had within the secondary sector, where a majority of schools had shortcomings in several areas—in pupil knowledge and understanding, in progress on development of pupil literacy, numeracy and skills, and shortcomings in aspects of teaching, especially poor planning. And it goes on. There's a list of things that show shortcomings, in the bulk, in the majority of the secondary sector. How can you drive improvement where you've got a fundamentally unimproving system in the secondary sector?

I don't accept that it's not improving. You can see from the results that they're actually going in the right direction. I'd also argue that, actually, the new body, Dysgu, is there to make sure that we see improvements in terms of professional learning. So, that should create some of the leadership that you're concerned with. And I think the other thing to bear in mind is that, I think, on raising standards, Estyn has a really key role to play in this. They're now undertaking far more frequent inspections, and that includes a core inspection and an interim visit within a six-year period. Estyn, then, once they've visited a school, set out recommendations for post inspection, and then the school has to develop an action plan with the local authority, and then what Estyn does is to monitor the school every four to six months. And then they share the outcome of that monitoring with the school and the local authority, and also with the Cabinet Secretary. So, when things are going wrong, Estyn can go in there and not just have a big stick, but also help create a route-map for how to get out of there, and that intensive monitoring afterwards, I think, is critical. Going in, pointing the finger and running away is not terribly helpful. So, that's a very different approach from what we've seen.

Thank you, Chair.

I want to bring John in now.

Thanks, Chair. It certainly doesn't make for good reading, what Estyn's early insights 2024-25 annual report set out. As Peter Fox said, it's fundamental aspects of secondary school teaching that are worrying. According to that early insights report, the majority of secondary schools—the majority—are struggling in some fundamental aspects. And when you mention leadership, First Minister, which, as we know, is absolutely vital, Estyn say that, in two thirds of secondary schools, leadership is not effective enough in ensuring consistent, good-quality teaching. So, two out of three are in that position of leadership not really producing the teaching standards that our children deserve. It really is very worrying, isn't it, because although, as you say, it's about the school team and other professionals, teachers and teaching standards, obviously, in the classroom, are absolutely crucial.

Leadership is key—absolutely fundamental—and a good leader can turn a school around. So, making sure that we develop leaders of the future is important and that's why I think that Dysgu role is going to be important. Georgina, I don't know if you've got more to add.

I was just going to reflect on the Dysgu role, because, obviously, they've taken over the national leadership of the national professional qualification for headship, and so they're making sure that there's a high-quality professional learning offer for new heads, and making sure that that's consistent across Wales. Again, it builds into that question of heads getting to know each other and supporting each other through a collaborative model and sharing good practice across Wales. So, it speaks to those points about consistency and making sure that there's consistency across different schools.

The Dysgu role in relation to professional learning is also important. The nationally consistent approach to literacy, numeracy, well-being and inclusion is what the Cabinet Secretary has requested them to do, and making sure that all of those are research informed, evidence based but also practical. This is quite new, so it needs to take a little bit of time to make sure that it beds in and to make sure that everyone has the opportunity to take advantage of it.

We have, over the course of this year, invested £5 million in schools causing concern generally, and just working with local authorities to make sure that those schools are being supported by their local authorities, and particularly those schools who've been in a statutory category for over two years who received a distinct amount of funding to try and bring them out of category. And there have been a couple of schools who have emerged from long-term categorisation over the course of the last few months, so that feels like there is a model there that we can continue to use to make sure that we support heads across the sector, and bring really good heads along with us—and there are plenty of those in Wales—to support those other leaders who maybe need a bit of support. So, that work and that collaborative work is ongoing.

Okay. I want to move on, because our time on this is getting limited. We've had quite a few responses on the additional learning needs reform. So, Mark, unless there's something that already hasn't been answered, can you move on to young people beyond compulsory age, because we need to talk about the 16-year-olds plus, and the implications for them? Mark.

Sorry, you disappeared.

I said, just to let you know, we've had quite a few responses on additional learning needs this morning already, so unless there's something specific, can you move on to young people beyond compulsory school age?

That's fine, yes. The question earlier that I raised was referencing particular additional learning needs, so it wasn't specifically answered in that context.

Over to you, then, on young people over the compulsory school age.

Can I just add, on ALN, that there's been a 12 per cent increase compared to last year, and I think that demonstrates the commitment that the Cabinet Secretary has put towards this?

I don't think that we'd dispute the commitment of the Cabinet Secretary; the question is how successful the reforms have been and the cost implications for school budgets as well, which we've discussed already this morning.

Sure. And, as I say, England is looking to us now because they're in a very different position.

Okay. I'll move on to Carolyn and then on to John after that.

Regarding young people beyond compulsory school age, we did an inquiry with the Children, Young People and Education Committee on post-16 education and we've also had a debate on apprenticeships. What was raised with us is ensuring that there are pathways, going forward, so that young people and parents know what jobs are out there. You talked earlier about getting people into jobs as being the right thing to do. So, we need to make sure that there's work experience. We heard from the Cardiff compact and we also heard from Anglesey as well, where the local authority is mapping out what jobs are available. So, have you thought about working with the local growth—I’ve forgotten what they’re called—the growth deal areas that we have in each region to map out what jobs are there? And also we've got the local growth fund now, which I think is supposed to be targeting getting people employed as well. That's mainly capital, so I was just wondering how you could use that and other grants to ensure that we have these pathways, going forward, for young people.

Thanks. Look, one of the things that I made clear in the investment summit is that, as far as I'm concerned, there are three things that you need to try and attract investment. One of them is stability, and that's something that a Welsh Labour Government can offer, obviously. The second thing is good infrastructure. So, getting the right infrastructure, and we're talking about renewable energy and things, making sure the grids are there and making sure that we've got roads that are not potholed and all those kinds of things are important. And then the third thing, and probably the most important thing, is skills. So, what is the offer? I'm very keen to make sure that our offer is in the skill space. They were bowled over by the fact that we have produced—we're not quite there yet but we're almost there—100,000 apprenticeships over the course of this five-year term. Proportionate to the number of people in Wales, they were really surprised by that, and don't forget that that comes on top of the 100,000 that were taken on five years before that. So, 200,000 apprenticeships in the course of 10 years in a population of 3 million people, that's something genuinely to celebrate. And what's good about that, of course, is that it's being tailored to the needs of the employer. So, the employer helps to shape that. Obviously, Jack Sargent has been pushing hard his new skills approach where businesses are given an offer. They're told, 'Why don't you use this?' And, again, there have been thousands of people who've already benefited from that, where they can tailor make it for their own businesses.

On the local growth fund, skills are going to be fundamental to that and are going to be central. That's, obviously, out of consultation at the moment. You're right that, at the moment, it’s more capital than revenue, but the key thing for me is how we make sure, first, that we get more people into further education in particular, and we are absolutely heading in the right direction. We’ve seen 8 per cent growth in a year in the numbers of people going into further education. When I said that to the Prime Minister, he nearly fell off his chair. He couldn't believe the difference that is happening in Wales. We are taking a very different approach and people are responding. So, the other thing that I'm keen to do and another thing that I talked to the businesses about in the investment summit is, 'Actually, we're up for making sure that, because we're a small country, we can actually change things quicker; we can respond to you. Let's build the curriculum with you', and that's what's been happening, for example in relation to cyber security and things, in Wales. We're working with businesses who are saying, 'These are the skills we need', and sometimes you don't need a three-year course to do that. Sometimes you can just do a really intensive course, and I do think we probably need to be a bit more creative in terms of how quickly we can move, because the world is moving so quickly now, but it's not just about new people coming in, younger people, it's about all of us lot needing to upskill. We're all going to have to learn how to use AI, because actually, if we don't, we'll become inefficient compared to everybody else in the world. So, how do we do that? How do we upskill the people who are currently in work? I think all of those—. We've got lots of plans in this space as well. I don't know if, Jo, there's anything to add.

I think you've covered it. I think making the point about the different routes of apprenticeships is a very regulated, formalised one, but then the flexible skills programme as well being something that we joint fund with businesses, and that allows much more scope for shorter interventions. So, there's that wide range, and then, of course, there are the personal learning accounts as well, which put the money in the hands of the worker to determine what their upskilling needs are and find the relevant training.

At CYPE committee, we took evidence from Ministers regarding health and childcare as well, and one of the pathways you talked about earlier was that young people could go from being carers, child carers, into teaching that way. And the foundational economy is really important in Wales, So, as part of those pathways, how can we encourage young people into childcare, because we've got a shortage of child carers, that education, but also care for older people, and that is talked about as part of the green economy and gender budgeting, which we've talked about in our cross-party group for women as well. So, we have a lot of focus on industry, but we've got the foundational economy as well and pathways that way. So, is that also discussed as a part of our business and growth strategy as well, making sure we don't forget the foundational economy and growth in that way into care?

Look, these jobs are fundamental to the way our society works. We can't function any more without the people with the kind of traditional family approach to, 'You looked after your granny, and your grandmother looked after your children', and women didn't go out to work. That's all gone, so we need these jobs, and people are fantastic at them. They make such a difference. We've got to make sure that, in particular—. People who may be a long way from the jobs market, how do you build their confidence? I do think a lot of people are carers, but they look after their mum or they look after their disabled son or child, but they don't think of themselves as a professional carer, and you think, 'Well, actually, there's an opportunity there.' Actually think of yourself as someone who's got real skills here, because it is a massive skill to care, and it's amazing. You think about childcare, you've got to be very fit and have a lot of enthusiasm and all of these skills, but women are doing it day in, day out, but they maybe don't think about it as a job. So, how do we build their confidence—

How do you promote it as a pathway?

—to say, 'You know what, you can do this and this is an opportunity'?

I want to bring John and Mark in now. John.

On the NEET agenda, First Minister, the Welsh Government's target is to have at least 90 per cent of 16 to 24-year-olds in education, employment or training by 2050, but I think provisional figures for 2023-24 show that the figures are moving in the wrong direction. Medr say that the problems are persistent and unacceptable in terms of the number of our young people who are not in employment, education and training. How does the Welsh Government intend to make further progress and make sure that the interventions that are involved in addressing the problem reach our most disadvantaged young people, and that those young people sustain the progress that they make in terms of education, training and employment?

I think this is critical, because what we know is that if you don't start off well, it's really difficult to get young people back into the market. So, if you don't get them into work early, they can be out of work for a very, very long time, and their confidence just dissipates. There are some really stubborn figures, and we're determined to try and shift them. What we've got are the final estimates for 2023, and they indicate that the proportion of 16 to 18-year-olds who are NEET decreased to 9.2 per cent. It's still way too high, because that's almost 10 per cent of the population. You just think about what that means for them if they're starting out.

What have we done? We have this young person's guarantee, and 60,000 young people have had access to employability and skills programmes. It's great now to see the UK Government has had a look at that and they are copying us. That is great. They're copying us on so many things, it's great. This is what the Labour Government does, we lead the way. It's really great to see that they are following what we're doing—not just on free school breakfasts, but also now on the young person's guarantee.

We've also, of course, still got the Jobs Growth Wales+, and that provides a holistic, tailored package of support for young people who are at risk of becoming NEET. That's assisted more than 16,000 young people. And then, of course, we're working now with the UK Government on the economic inactivity trailblazer, so making sure that we give opportunities to try and get people into work. What they've recognised is that that young person's guarantee that we started out on—. If somebody's been in their bedroom gaming for months and haven't left their room and they've lost all their confidence and they can't interact with other people, you can't just say, 'Go and get a job.' You've got to rebuild these people, you've got to work with them, and you've got to make sure their mental health is in the right place.

It was really interesting to go and visit a group of young people in Pontypridd, to have a look at the hand-holding that was going on, but also the transformation that was going on. People who hadn't left their room for months turned up. That is massive success for some of these people, just turning up. Then you've got to get them to turn up the next day, and the next day, and the next day. Some of these are a long way away from the market. I think that the approach we've got is the right one, but we just do need to see progress in that area. But the young person's guarantee is really helping.

Could I just ask, Chair, about the 14 to 19 agenda? I think we know that we lose some of our pupils at age 14, because they haven't got the flexibility that they would wish to have, the choice that they want in terms of vocational studies. Sometimes at 14, they want to go down the vocational route and their school isn't able to provide what they want. The local FE college is, but, of course, the school has the funding rather than the FE college, and often the pupils remain at school until they're 16, they disengage sometimes, and then, when they turn up at the college at age 16, they haven't got the basic skills that they need to do the vocational course that they wish to follow. We should be better at providing the flexibility and giving the choice to those young people so that they can follow the route that they wish to follow, otherwise that can definitely feed into the NEET problem.

I think that's right, and that's why I think we're very keen on the junior apprenticeship route that is helping a lot of people. That's working quite well in some places, but it hasn't been rolled out everywhere, and I think that's something that we're keen to see. But also, I think schools have got to be a bit more creative, sometimes. It was really good to see that, in that football club up in Holywell, they'd taken children who probably wouldn't have bothered turning up to school, but actually, they will turn up to be taught in a football club in a totally different environment, in a very unconventional way. But it got them into school, and they were doing maths and English in an unconventional way, but it worked. They were there. So, I just think it's really important that we allow people to be creative and work around the individual and what works for them, because probably that's the only way that we're going to crack this stubborn figure that we've got. Georgina.

Can I add that Qualifications Wales are rolling out the new set of vocational pre-16 courses aligned with the Curriculum for Wales? Those will come on stream as well and they're updated to make sure that they reflect some of the modern interests of young people. Also, they've had lots of conversations between schools and colleges about how to support those more vocational journeys.

It's fascinating; I met these gaming companies recently, and the gaming industry is bigger than the tv industry, it's bigger than the arts sector. It's massive. And what you've got is a lot of young people playing games in their rooms. Actually, those are skills that can be transferred. And so, it's really good to see the creativity happening in colleges now, kind of going, 'Hang on, we're going to put on a course for this'. And these people are looking for skilled workers. So, those people who were hiding in their bedrooms on computer games, we've just got to make sure that we use the skills that they've got in a more creative way and kind of go to where they're at, but also where the economy is going. The economy is going into that space.

I think it's probably worth mentioning that in relation to construction apprenticeships—

We're going to come on to that, I'm sure.

Okay, fine.

Mark Isherwood.

Diolch. I'm sure the business leaders you referred to would also be surprised to learn that despite the young person's guarantee, the proportion of young people aged 16 to 24 in Wales not in employment, education or training was 15.1 per cent in the year ending June 2025—an increase of 3.6 percentage points over the year on your watch. And of the Welsh economic regions, north Wales had the highest rate of young people who were NEET in the three-year period ending June 2025. How do you respond to the briefing from the King's Trust summarising YouGov polling on public attitudes towards youth unemployment in Wales, published only last month, which shows that seven in 10 adults in Wales are concerned about youth unemployment and two thirds last month believed the Welsh Government should be doing more to help young people into work?

I've set out lots of things that we're already doing and that are making a difference. As I say, the fact that England is following our example with the young person's guarantee I think tells you something. I'm going to ask Jo to address some of those issues as well, if you don't mind.

I think it's worth making the point that the youth employment rate in Wales is higher than in England. In Wales, 52.2 per cent of 16 to 24-year-olds are in employment compared to 50.6 per cent. I think also looking at the provisional figures for 2024 for that 19 to 24-year-old category, there's actually a very small drop. Having said that, we've been talking a lot about the problems of NEETs and how we support people there, and one of the things that we're finding as well—and we've talked about this a lot—is that the scarring impact of the pandemic is still there and carrying through. So, we've got a lot of very flexible programmes that wrap around the individual and give them the support that they need, but what we're actually finding is that we're giving longer interventions for those people to provide the support they need, but have good rates of positive outcomes for people who we are providing the support to.

Is that okay, Mark? Our youth employment is higher than it is in England. I think it's worth emphasising that, and the youth guarantee, I think, has helped that.

Yes, but, as I indicated, the official figures show the NEET rates went up in the year to June 2025, and the region I represent has seen the biggest increase in Wales over the last three years, which is deeply concerning, I'm sure you would agree.

We don't want to see any NEETs in our country. I think that the opportunity in north Wales is unbelievable now with the development at Wylfa, which is going to be massive—the opportunities for construction, the opportunities around the AI growth zone. What I think is more frustrating than anything for young people is for them to be trained up and then to find that there are no jobs at the end of it. So, what we've got now is a clear pathway, particularly in north Wales, for those young people, to say, 'Follow this path, here's an example of what you could do, and there will be an outcome at the end that will benefit you.'

Jenny.

I just want to focus on the needs of disabled young people, because we did a report in the Equality and Social Justice Committee earlier this year. The disability employment gap is 14 per cent. Particularly young people with learning difficulties, we do reasonably well with them when they've got this two-year entitlement to being in college, but then they're just left to their own devices. That's incredibly damaging for their mental health, with long-term consequences for all of us.

I want to focus on what progress we're making on ensuring we're joining up the dots, that we're getting many more employers with the badge, the level 3 of being employers of disabled people, but also how we're doing with Jobs Growth Wales+ to ensure that after ceasing to be in college, they don't just get left to their own devices to get work, because that isn't going to work. It works really well where Cardiff Council was working with Cardiff and Vale health board to get tailored support, coaching, to identify what type of job is going to be most appropriate for that individual with learning difficulties. It's very successful, but it definitely needs more attention.

If there's one area that I think needs more attention, it's disabled employment. The numbers are not good. That's the area that I think we absolutely need to focus on. We have the disability action plan now, and there's a lot of things in there in terms of what we could be doing. These are people who want to work, and sometimes it's discrimination that's stopping them. So, there's a lot of work to do with employers to convince them that they should be taking these people on. Sometimes they need to be flexible, and that's a big ask of a company that's focused on profits, but what they will get out of it is a long-term commitment. What you'll get is significantly different in return. I don't know, Jo, if there's anything you'd like to add.

Just to mention that in the trailblazer, we've incorporated the social model of disability into that. Doing that as a trailblazer is letting us really try some innovative approaches to removing some of the barriers and working particularly with local partners, but also employers, to encourage them to move towards the disabled confident employer accreditation. Communities for Work Plus is also very good in working in local communities to help people in there and develop that through.

How well are Jobs Growth Wales+ doing in ensuring there is continuity once the young person has left college? That's when they need the support. That's one question, and the other is on the—

You'll have to be quick, because we're running out of time.

—concordat with the Department for Work and Pensions, February 2025. Clearly, there has to be a link-up here so that we're catching people who are falling through the gaps. Those two things seem to be absolutely crucial to ensure that every young person has the dignity to work.

I'd absolutely agree with that, and I think that point about losing people at transition points is a really, really key one. But, absolutely, Jobs Growth Wales+ would be there to help someone who had left college and then needed more support to move into employment, absolutely.

We've gone over the time for the first session and we haven't asked about all our areas, so I might well write to you on one or two areas in particular. But, as my final question in this session before we go for the break: youth work. The chair of the Welsh Government's youth work board went to a Senedd committee and highlighted the fact that the Welsh Government's current proposals over youth work provision would be a mistake as they are unrealistic and unworkable. I suppose people will want to have confidence that the proposals are going to actually achieve stability and sustainability. So, how are you going to address those comments from the chair of the Welsh Government's youth work board?

I think we're aware there are concerns from a small number of individuals, but I don't agree that the framework is unrealistic or that it's unworkable. We've spent a huge amount of time talking to people in relation to the development of youth work provision. We're finalising a new statutory framework for youth work. The key thing here is to make sure that we've got training and development available for those delivering youth work. For the very first time, there will be a statutory duty on local authorities to ensure the provision of youth work. I don't know if you could add to that.

Thank you, First Minister. I think this is actually a really positive move. Putting youth work right at the centre of provision is absolutely important. There's been a huge amount of work, as the First Minister says, in terms of engaging with the sector, which is very broad, very varied, in terms of pinning down a definition and the key elements of what can provide, then, a legislative underpinning for the first time, a professionalisation and a much greater recognition of what is an incredibly important sector for many of the issues that we've been talking about, including preventing NEETs, re-engaging young people, making sure that people aren't pulled out of the system but are kept in and kept engaged and find the right pathway through. So, I think this is a really exciting and positive move, that we will have a framework, as the First Minister says, that we will have a legal requirement, a duty on local authorities to work with the sector in their area, and I think that's a really important element. This is not something that will be done to the sector. We have worked collaboratively up until this point, and the expectation is that local authorities will continue that collaboration in order to make sure that youth work is supported, is there to support young people in each area, and is able to make sure that we are keeping young people in education and employment, finding the right pathway for them.

Okay. Well, thank you for those answers, and thank you for your answers this morning in the first session. We'll take a short break now, and we will reconvene in 10 minutes to continue our session on topical themes. Can I thank all the officials that are with you? I don't think any of them are coming back next time, so thank you very much for your time this morning, and you know the score, as you’ll get a copy of the transcripts. If there are any factual inaccuracies, please let the clerking team know. And, for the First Minister, I'll see you in 10 minutes. For colleagues, we'll catch up during our break, in preparedness for the next 10 minutes. So, we'll go private and take a short break.

Can I welcome the public back to this morning's session of the Committee for the Scrutiny of the First Minister? And we now go into our second session, which is focused on topical themes. Before we go into the questions, First Minister, would you like to introduce the officials you have with you for this session?

I have Jacqueline Totterdell, who is director general for health and chief executive officer of the NHS in Wales, and also Andrew Jeffreys, who's director for Welsh Treasury.

Thank you for that. It's quite helpful that you've got Jacqueline with you because we have some questions on health, and I'll start off with Peter Fox.

Thank you, Chair. Yes, it is good that we have those officers there. I want to talk about the preventative agenda, because we're hearing everywhere that prevention is fundamental to change the way we do things, to improve the opportunities for people, to take pressure off the health service, and different things like that. We hear these fine words and everybody can see it, but my experience through various committees is that we're not actually seeing that translated, that commitment to prevention translated into preventative outcomes. We see in primary care disinvestment, or certainly not enough investment in primary care, putting more pressure on secondary care when primary care could actually be the preventative driver for so many things. I just wondered what is the Government's long-term strategy, a proper holistic overarching strategy, to drive the preventative agenda, where all areas of the Government are aligned to this change that is so needed?

Well, I'll start, and maybe Jacqueline would like to add. Look, I think the first thing in particular, if you're talking about health, is to recognise that health is determined by a range of factors, including poverty, including housing, including whether you have a job, including your family background—all kinds of things affect your health outcomes. So, it shouldn't just sit in the health sector itself; it's got to be something that's considered much, much more broadly, which is certainly how we approach it. Of course, now, we have a health impact assessment, which I think we're one of the first countries in the world to have that, where, when we're introducing new policies, we have to determine what the health outcomes are in relation to that. That's across the whole of Government.

If you look at what we're doing, I absolutely beg to differ in terms of whether we're actually pursuing this route. We are absolutely pursuing this route, from things like teeth cleaning in school—which, once again, the UK Government is following us on—and if you do that early, you get in early, you prevent the problem later on. If you look at what we're doing in relation to Flying Start, we're putting support in at the very, very young stage and we know that the outcomes are significantly different. The more you put in upfront, the better the outcomes. So, Flying Start has been expanded. You've seen it expand in places in particular like Merthyr. We're targeting the poorest places first. If you look at things like trying to avoid hospital transmissions, with end-of-life care, rather than do end-of-life care in a hospital, do it at home, do the wraparound care. It makes a huge difference to the comfort of the patient, where they want to be, but also to the hospital and the flow through the hospital. So, all of that is being done.

And mental health is another example where, actually, that preventative agenda, getting in early and—. We've turned around mental health support in Wales. It used to be very, very challenged. I'm not saying it's perfect, but it's a damn sight better than it is in England. And if you look at the targets that we've set ourselves—28 days—95 per cent of children are getting an assessment within 28 days, and about 86 per cent of them are getting an intervention 28 days after that. These are much better statistics than they have been. And again, the prevention, getting in there early, avoids the problem from becoming much more critical later. So, those are just some examples. I don't know, Jacqui, if there's anything you'd like to add.

Only a small amount. Thank you very much, First Minister. When you think of prevention, you're thinking of disease prevention as well. So, if we take diabetes, which has been a focus for us this last year, actually, what we're talking about is putting prevention at the beginning of the pathway, rather than not remembering at all. We have quite a high incidence of diabetes in Wales. We've got about 200,000 people with type 2 diabetes. And actually, beginning to do work with people early—and you're absolutely right, First Minister—early intervention in early years around diet, around exercise, et cetera, is all preventative measures. So, prevention at the beginning of pathways, education in communities, particularly, is what we're focused on.

But the chief medical officer for the Welsh Government is also developing something with the health boards called 'community by design', which is not only about how we actually keep people at home, and look after them and wrap care around them at home rather than in hospital, but also looking at how we weave in the health prevention agenda with that. And that is with community, general practice, and with the acute hospitals themselves.

Peter.

I mean, it's great there's a lot of preventative strands being talked about. Some might argue, 'Well, why couldn't we have been doing a lot more sooner?' But the challenge for the Government, then, is: how do you reprioritise your moneys to deal with the current pressures you have to deal with, but also to front-load funding into the preventative agenda? Now, that's going to take a brave Government to start putting huge amounts of money into different areas, but that's what's needed. How are the Government planning to address that going forward?

So, we've got a strategy, and it's absolutely central to our strategy. We're seven years down the road of that strategy. It's called 'A Healthier Wales'. And central to that, there are three key areas that we're focused on within that strategy. One is the prevention space; the second is to move support into communities; and the third is to move towards digital. Amazing—Wes Streeting has just discovered that this is a good idea, and, again, is copying us, but seven years later than we are. So, we're much further down this pathway. You can see that presented in things like the fact that, in Wales, you can get support for 27 different ailments in your community pharmacy, so that community approach is already there.

When it comes to other things in relation to prevention, I want to go back to that broader picture, which is critical. It's not just in health that we've been looking at this. If you look at the quality standards for our homes, the homes that we build in Wales, they are very different from where they are in England again. We haven't compromised on that. We have been under a lot of pressure to deliver 20,000 social homes. We haven't compromised on quality, because we know, if you do, you're more likely to get either poverty—fuel poverty—or you're going to get perhaps homes that are more prone to damp, and all of that causes problems later on with asthma and all those other things. So, it's not something you can just restrict to the health agenda. You've got to look at it in a much broader picture. This is not something we haven't done. It has been something we have been working on since we have been running the Senedd, 25 years ago. There are loads of policies in place today that you take for granted that, actually, are there because the Welsh Labour Government made sure that they were introduced because we've always been interested in that prevention agenda.

That's all well and good, First Minister, but what I'm hearing from GP practices and pharmacies, whilst these expectations are for them to do more, they don't have the resources to actually do what's expected of them to do, and more people then are presenting to secondary care because the GP contracts haven't been robust enough to employ enough people to do things like frailty. So, there is a mismatch. Back to my beginning point: there's this mismatch between the commitment to prevention and what actually is happening on the ground to enable prevention.

I would like to differ on that, if you don't mind. The fact is that we have increased the number of people working in the NHS significantly since COVID. We now have 110,000 or so people working for the NHS. That has increased massively since COVID. If you look at the funding we put into the NHS, again, it's significantly higher per head of population compared to England.

If you look at GP practices, again, we've put more money into those. And, listen, I've got to pay tribute to them. I know I keep on saying this figure, but I want everybody in Wales to be able to say this figure by the time I have finished: 2.75 million appointments every month in a population of 3 million people. That is an extraordinary amount of work that is being done in our communities. When people say that the NHS isn't working in Wales, I just think: it's working for 2.75 million people. There may be multiple appointments there, but it is really important for people to recognise how much work is being done and, frankly, how that could be in jeopardy if you get a party running this Senedd in future who are not committed to the NHS and who actually could cause chaos, so the things today that people take for granted may not be there in future, including free prescriptions.

I want to bring Jenny in now.

I want to go back to prevention. Scunthorpe has just announced a 10 per cent increase in breastfeeding rates—a pretty poor area. None of our Flying Start areas have seen anything like that in terms of increasing breastfeeding, and this is the No. 1 intervention that would get our child obesity rates down. We are still taking baby steps on this, and that means that some families are having to steal the formula, because they haven't had the proper support. So, what are we doing to actually turn around what is the most obvious first intervention that needs to happen?

So, I don't know if you've got to anything to add to this, Jacqui, but we've got a very clear strategy, 'Healthy Weight: Healthy Wales'. It's been built along with people who are organised, and, within that, obviously breastfeeding is something that needs to be taken account of. Our figures on breastfeeding are improving—they're improving.

Well, good.

So, I'm more than happy. I don't know, Jacqui, if you've got the figures, but they're improving quite significantly. So, if you don't mind, I will write to you, Jenny, to demonstrate that, actually, what we're doing is making a difference. I think that's absolutely right. But it's improving.

I look forward to that, but how do you account for the fact that the well-being of future generations commissioner, and the auditor general, both highlight that prevention does not get the focus that it deserves, particularly amongst our health bodies, which is, obviously, the most devastating analysis? So, how are we going to get our health bodies to actually focus a lot more on this? I appreciate there's a huge demand, but, unless we do this prevention agenda, we're never going to arrive.

I'll bring you in in a second, Jacqui, but it's really important for us to recognise that we're still in a post-pandemic period, okay. So, we're still in recovery from the pandemic, and we've still got to bring those waiting lists down, okay. Because I don't want to see people waiting in pain for years on end, which is why that has been an absolute priority for us. So, bringing those waiting lists down, which is actually quite an expensive part of the system—we're talking hospitals, we're talking consultant time; all of that is the most expensive part of the system. So, whilst our strategy is really clear that we want to move into prevention, because we're recovering from COVID, we've had to put money into the most expensive part of the system. That's not to say we're not doing more prevention; we are doing more prevention. It's just we're also doing significantly more in the most expensive part of the system. And I'm not going to apologise for that. I want waiting lists to come down. But, at some point, I want to see the percentage balance that we spend on prevention being recalibrated. That is really difficult while we still have these waiting lists. So, the commitment is there. It's not that we're not spending money. We're spending more money on prevention than we have before. It's just that, proportionately, at the moment, we are determined to get those waiting lists down—

Good.

—and they are coming down. Jacqui, do you want to add?

Thank you very much, First Minister. So, we do know that long waiting lists are also adding to widening determinants of health. So, we do know that, if we don't bring waiting lists down, actually, that does add to poor outcomes as well. So, it is important we tackle both ends.

The health boards, as you know, are set up to deliver across the piece, in terms of prevention, general practice, community. And we've been talking through them, partly through the community by design work that the chief medical officer is doing, as well as part of the provider assurance meetings. And we talked with Cwm Taf yesterday, who talked quite a lot about the prevention agenda that they are actually undertaking with their general practitioners and community teams, in order to address some of the issues that they've got. And they've got a strategy called 24/7, which is addressing the 20 per cent of people with the worst health outcomes, or rather those communities with the four top areas of diseases in the seven—. I can't remember exactly, but it was impressive work that they've started to do. And, really, the bit for me is: how do we help all health boards to spread some of that and work across the pathways that people are following, or could follow, because they've got parents or grandparents who have certain disease types like diabetes? Diabetes isn't inherited, but you are more likely to get it if you've got a parent or grandparent with it. And the bit is: how do you turn around as well the view that, 'Well, I am going to get it anyway, so—', to, actually, 'I can stop this, because, if I change my diet, and I can change my exercise regime, then that can stop'?

So, we are beginning to see that, and we're also beginning to plan for next year, as we begin to think about the planning framework, about how we begin to weave more in there around prevention so that we begin to work and measure with the health boards what actually that might begin to look like going forward—as waiting lists are coming down, I hope to continue to do that—then how do we actually move health boards to thinking in pathways and prevention rather than acute.

Yes, but you've got to convince me that—. We'll never get these waiting lists down unless we start dealing with the underlying causes of ill health. And although tobacco is still the biggest killer in terms of early death, food is definitely rising up the agenda. Six out of 10 people never cook at all. It's ready meals and takeaways—all of which are doused in adulterated rubbish. So, how on earth are we going to get these waiting lists down unless we tackle this, starting with breastfeeding?

Well, I think you've got to do both ends. You can't ignore one and not the other. You absolutely have to work with both ends. So, now we're beginning to get waiting list management more transparent, under control, beginning to come down. Then, actually, that's why we're beginning to shift over the course of next year to how do we actually then really think about prevention in a different way. And the chief medical officer is actually—. I've forgotten the—. She does actually have—. Her background is working in community on prevention. That is what her background is. So, she's quite passionate about that, and is very active in beginning to work with health boards about how we might do that differently through this community by design.

I look forward to meeting with her. Lastly—

No, I need to move on, because I'm conscious of time.

It's a very brief question.

It's very brief, but I've got people who want to ask questions elsewhere. I want to bring Mark Isherwood in and then Cefin Campbell.

Thank you. A huge range of key services—prevention, intervention, support, rehabilitation—are provided through the third sector, and the cost of that saves far, far higher costs for statutory services by reducing demand on GPs, hospitals, social services and otherwise. Despite that, I know, particularly as chair of seven cross-party groups, engaging with a huge number of third sector bodies, that the sector delivering those key services is using the words 'crisis', 'deficit', 'cuts', 'contraction of services', because of the Welsh Government's failure to invest and save in successive budgets, particularly the last one and the proposed one for next year. We see that with hospices, which are already cutting services and are saying they're going to have to cut more; and cancer services like Tenovus; addiction and mental health services like Adferiad. We've even seen Cymorth Cymru saying that 91 per cent of the increase in the housing support grant and homelessness prevention grant for this year was used to cover additional national insurance costs, not front-line worker pay or meeting increased demand and complexity, which the Welsh Government said were its stated purposes. And 60 per cent of housing support provider services, which you referred to, are running at a deficit and facing cuts. So, if you're going to budget smartly, if you're going to reduce resource pressure on the health service and other statutory care services, which cost far more, when are you finally going to start listening to the third sector, who keep crying for help, and recognise that, if you don't put the support in, which they say repeatedly they must have, then you're going to see a big contraction in those key services, far less prevention, and far more costly demand on statutory services?

Thanks very much, Mark. Just to be clear, we know to what extent in particular our health service is dependent on the incredible work that some of our third sector partners do for us. I am very aware, when it came to the regional integration fund, for example—I think there's about £144 million in that fund—that there is a ring fence specifically for the third sector. Now, that's not something that happened before, but there is an assurance there. I think it's about 15 per cent to 20 per cent that is ring-fenced specifically for the third sector. And that includes opportunities for organisations like Care & Repair, for example, to make sure that they can go in, to make sure that people can come out of hospital quickly, but they've got the support services there. We put an extra £30 million into making sure that that support mechanism was there in last year's budget, which of course was a budget that you did not support. And that money has helped rehabilitation, for example. So, we know that if we can get people back on their feet quickly, if we can do the assessment back in people's homes, then people won't be deconditioned and then the dependence of those people on the additional services within our social services community will be less. But that is because we've put that extra money in.

You talked about hospices. We've increased the money significantly that goes to hospices this year. We recognise that there is an issue in relation to hospice funding, which is why we've had a very clear three-phase programme in relation to that. We haven't finished the programme, but the first phase has completed. For the second phase, as I said, additional money has gone into that. There is also additional money that has gone into homelessness. [Interruption.] Shall I ask Andrew if there's anything that he's got to add?

Well, maybe just to add the importance of—. Obviously, a lot of third sector services are commissioned by local authorities, so just to add the importance of maintaining increases in funding for local government and the recent confirmation that the local government settlement will be increasing by 4.5 per cent next year, which helps to provide funding for those services.

Can I ask a very quick supplementary?

Is it linked to health?

Yes. Would you agree, First Minister, that the third sector have had to take over because of cuts to public services, and by having that funding back into public services now, that will help, but further savings, mass savings, aren't there to be made now, as has been put forward by Mark Isherwood?

I think that what's important is that we recognise that we're the Labour Party, we're committed to the NHS, we're committed, where possible, to making sure that we deliver that service in the public sector. I think that there is a really important role for the third sector within that. What I wouldn't want to see is the kind of privatisation that some parties are keen to explore and to push.

When it comes to hospices, if you don't mind, just to be clear, we put a £5.5 million cash injection into that, and that's on top of the £3 million uplift that was put in before that. So, I just think that it's really important that people have a look at the numbers and make sure that there is recognition. We need to do more, we understand that, but there is a limit to our financial abilities.

I'm going to bring Mark Isherwood back in and then I'll go to Cefin.

Since reference was made to me. Statutory services are there to support people when they reach a critical point, prevention is about helping them to prevent them getting there. In terms of hospice funding, last year, you put that £5.5 million in, but this year only £3 million, which didn't even cover their increased costs. They said they needed £5.5 million, you didn't provide it. The draft budget only had £3 million for next year. That guarantees further cuts, more families in crisis, more people without bereavement support, more people dying without the specialist care they need, and far greater demand on hospitals that can't cope with current levels of demand. Surely you can see that that's not acceptable. Stop talking about tiny sums of money and start engaging with the sector and listening to the sums that they say they need just to stand still.

Look, we've spent a lot of time talking to the sector over the past few years. We've been working very closely with them and we recognise the massive contribution that they make in places like St David's Hospice in Newport, and they are really providing a very, very important service and taking the pressure off hospitals. And let's be clear, if they weren't doing it, that pressure would be on hospitals, which is why that engagement is really critical. But there is that £5.5 million of additional funding, additional funding that you did not support in the budget. And I think that it's really important that people hear that, and that's on top of the £3 million uplift that was put in there before that.

Cefin Campbell.

Thank you, Chair. I'll be asking my question in Welsh. We've seen items on the news recently about corridor care, and we've heard frightening examples of people receiving different treatments openly, without the privacy and dignity that you'd expect; even treatments happening in toilets and cupboards. Would you be willing to accept by now that corridor care in hospitals has been normalised?

The Welsh Government has been clear: we don't want to see corridor care. We want to see things changing. I visited Wrexham Maelor Hospital just on Wednesday evening, and I was eager to see what things looked like there, and there is too much corridor care happening. But what is interesting to see is how things have improved in certain departments. The difference in, say, somewhere like Swansea recently, is a model that perhaps other hospitals could learn from, and ensure that they look at what's changed there. Because this time last year, Swansea was the one that I was most concerned about; now, the system there has been transformed. So, what's important is that we learn from each other. Perhaps I could ask Jacqueline to come in at this point.

Thank you. Thank you very much. So, it's absolutely crucial for the well-being of the people that we serve that we reduce the amount of corridor care. You're absolutely right; we know that people who stay in corridors longer than 12 hours have a poorer outcome. That is evidenced. So, it's implicit in what we do to improve that, particularly as we come into winter when that potentially can get worse. At the moment, we have a two-week sprint before Christmas where, with the health boards, working with NHS Wales Performance and Improvement, we've asked them to get 33 per cent of their discharge patients discharged before 12 p.m., because when you look at the mismatch between patients coming in in need of admission and the discharge profile, they don't match. One's earlier, one's later, and that's partly why we end up in corridor care. So, that's what we've challenged them with, and also a 30 per cent improvement in how many patients are discharged at the weekend, because that is something else that we find: really poor discharge rates at the weekend mean that we build up a problem for Monday. Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, or Tuesday, Wednesday, we get real issues with flow; Thursday, Friday, we unblock it and then we start all over again on the Monday.

The thing that Swansea have done is actually one of the things that has really helped, and we've asked every health board to implement this, is to put something called the frailty unit at the front door of emergency care departments. Now, what that actually means is that normally when somebody over 75 who's 'gone off legs', isn't well, isn't quite right, gets brought in to the emergency care department, they will often get admitted. They're admitted for assessment, and we know that as soon as an older patient gets into a bed, after about 48 hours they'll start losing their muscle tone, and then it's really much harder to be able to get them home again, and they often will end up in social care, in a home of some description. What we've seen with frailty units is that if we put them together along with social care and community nurses, we can often get 50 per cent of those patients who would have been admitted back home, and looked after for a few days at home by district nurses or with social care, and that actually stops them deteriorating. They're back where they want to be, their families around them, and that actually has been a big part of what has happened in Swansea.

So, the bit there where we are focused on, apart from the six goals that we've also been implementing, is improving flow through hospitals. When you look at what stops patients going home, it's often waiting for a test, and actually that test could be done as an out-patient, or waiting for therapy, and we should have started that when they came in. So, there are things that we know we can do differently, and that's where we're working with the health boards to do that differently.

Yes, I have more questions—

There may be some more supplementaries, but I'm conscious of time, and I want to move on to some questions on transport and John Griffiths. I'll come back probably to health—don't worry.

Diolch, Cadeirydd. First Minister, you told us earlier that better transport was a priority identified during your listening exercise across Wales, and that's something that you would be measured on, as you described. In south-east Wales, of course, where a lot of the Welsh population live and where there's substantial economic potential as well as strength at the moment, the congestion on the M4 around the Brynglas tunnels and Newport has been a problem for a long time. The decision was taken—rightly, in my view—not to build an M4 relief road, and then the Burns commission was set up, and they recommended an integrated transport solution, which I think is the right way forward.

But, several years later, we haven't seen much progress at all in terms of Burns and their proposals, and now through the delivery unit that was set up under Burns. So, people around Newport very much agree with you that better transport is a priority, but, obviously, they want to see progress in the short term to deliver on Burns. One important aspect of that, First Minister, is rail, necessary work on rail infrastructure, the track, and, of course, the new stations, three of which are in Newport East, at Magor, at Llanwern and at Somerton. As we know, it takes substantial investment to take rail improvements and rail work forward, so can you update this committee today, First Minister, in terms of when we can expect the necessary work to take place to get that Burns agenda actually implemented and in place?

Thanks, John. I know how committed you are to this issue, and I know how important it is to the people that you represent. What we had was the Burns report, as you suggested, which was a plan for what we needed to do. What we didn't have was the money, and we didn't have the money because the Tory Government did not give us that commitment. Now we've had a commitment of over £450 million from the UK Government, we can really start in earnest on taking the pressure off the M4 by trying to switch people on to using rail. There's a real opportunity here, and, as you know, a huge amount of work has already been done. I think there are about five stations that are already quite a long way down planning and what the next steps are going to be. But the money is in place. You can't switch these things on overnight, as you know, but a lot of the ground work had been done and we're trying to move it on as quickly as possible. There's a possibility as well that we'll see some developments in relation to the Cardiff gate development—not Cardiff gate, what's it called?

Parkway.

The Cardiff parkway development. So, all of those things are very much moving forward in a way that we couldn't do before, because we didn't have the money. Now we've had the money, we can really focus on that. But I do think it's probably worth emphasising that our commitment to rail in Wales is really starting to pay dividends. We've invested £800 million, 148 new refurbished trains. We have the best performing network for punctuality in the United Kingdom for the second consecutive period. So, we've got more people using our trains. That's how you start to address some of the issues that you're concerned with.

The bits that we're responsible for, we've done really well on. The bits where we expected the UK Government—. Obviously, under the Conservatives and austerity, that didn't happen. We are starting to see some movement on that. Obviously, we'll be asking for more—that's the way it's going to be. But the fact is that it takes time to switch these things on. We know that rail infrastructure, from the fact that we have been staying the course over way more than a decade on this, demonstrates to you that you need to not just put your commitment in, but you need to stay the course. We've done that, as the Welsh Government, over decades. You can see that.

This is why stability makes a difference. This is why people should recognise that what Welsh Labour has done is that we've said—. On things like recycling, it's taken us 20 years to get to the point where we're now the second best recycler on the planet. You can't do that overnight; you've got to bring the people with you. It's the same plan in relation to rail. But you're absolutely right, we've got to change the culture and the mentality and get people back onto public transport and take the pressure off the M4.

Jenny first on Burns specifically, and then Carolyn wants to ask a question on the other aspect of public transport.

Transport for Wales is a fantastic investment, but the problem with this £450 million is that it's not in the Welsh Government's purview. This should be going to Network Rail. Why is Network Rail not announcing that it needs spades in the ground in April, when this money becomes available, so that companies can get on with these lines being upgraded that we've waited so long for? We can't deliver on Burns without the upgrade of these lines. The stations can be provided by the private sector.

The infrastructure of rail is the responsibility of the UK Government. We're working with them closely. Transport for Wales is working really closely with them on this, and I know that they're trying to put a rocket underneath this to make sure that we can deliver as soon as we can.

Carolyn.

We just passed the Bus Services (Wales) Bill, which is fantastic. Buses take people to work, education, health appointments and keep our town centres vibrant. The Bill is based on mapping out routes of services based on people's needs, not just that they go to the most profitable areas. Transport for Wales already have T buses in place, which have filled gaps, but going forward, I just want to ask about funding: will funding be a priority? Because I know, with the budget deal, we've put money through into local government, which is really welcome, and health, but TfW and Natural Resources Wales also need to have that uplift, and we need to invest in buses, as we have in trains, going forward. So, will you make transport funding one of your priorities as well?

We've invested £22 million across financial years to provide more affordable bus transport for young people. Today we have a £1 bus fare for young people; I think that is really important. It's a great offer, and we've extended that now beyond 16 to 21-year-olds to five to 15-year-olds. So, 22,000 people have already applied for MyTravelPass. The key thing is now, where those routes exist, that people use them. Getting young people into the habit of using public transport at a young age, I think, is really crucial, which is why I think that proposal, that pilot, is really critical.

A question from Cefin Campbell.

If I could return to rail, you know about the dispute that has arisen around HS2. Then we heard that the line between Cambridge and Oxford was being denoted as an England and Wales project. Now we hear that the line between Liverpool and Hull is also being designated as an England and Wales project. One would be tempted to laugh at the fact if this wasn't such a serious issue, because it feels like an absurd joke that this pattern continues. Do you sympathise with the people of Wales who feel very angry about this injustice? But the specific question to you is how much is Wales going to lose out on again because this Liverpool to Hull project is being designated as an England and Wales project.

The way rail is funded is exceptionally complex, and that's part of the problem. There's a lot of smoke and mirrors going on here. What's important is that we understand how much is coming to us as a result of what's happening in England. There are numerous examples where we do receive those consequentials and people haven't always acknowledged that.

Can I ask Andrew, because it's such a complicated area?

I can certainly agree that rail is one of the more complicated areas, for all sorts of reasons. I think the key thing here is that—at the moment, anyway—the way that rail infrastructure is delivered is done on an England and Wales basis. The UK Government designates investments in the rail system on an England and Wales basis, which has a massive impact on comparability for us. That affects our funding. We've provided some information for the Senedd about how much difference, for example, the HS2 project being designated as an England and Wales programme has made to our funding levels. These are material. These do have material impacts on the funding available to the Welsh Government.

It might be worth mentioning that there's a piece of work that's now been agreed with the UK Government and devolved Governments looking at various aspects of the way the Barnett system works, one of which is how the UK Government designates programmes—the comparability of programmes, to use the jargon. That's definitely an area that we've been pushing on for a number of years now without making a great deal of progress. But that's certainly an area that we want to look at: as part of that work, how do decisions get made about whether programmes are comparable, which means we get consequentials from them, or non-comparable, which means we don't, and putting a bit more transparency and independence into that process, because it feels at times that those things are done arbitrarily and in ways that penalise Wales specifically.

Have you calculated how much we're losing out on the Liverpool to Hull line?

It can't really be done at the moment, because a budget hasn't been set for it yet. There are big-picture numbers being talked about in terms of how much will be spent on it, but it's not in spending plans at the moment in the way that, for example, HS2 is, and we can calculate exactly how much money is being lost to Wales as a result of that. In due course, you will be able to see that, I think.

I think it's probably worth saying as well that if they handed us over a whole load of money now, you can't just switch these things on overnight. You can see, in relation to Burns, you have to go through planning, you have to talk to local people. The key for me is not just making sure we get our fair share, but also that we get our fair share for the long term, so we can plan, because you can't have this money being switched on and off. You need to be able to plan in the way we've managed to do with the rail infrastructure that we're responsible for in Wales. We've done that. We've put the money in. But we had to make a long-term commitment and hold our nerve on it, which was really tough, with all of the other pressures on us. But unless you do that, you don't get the outcome. So, getting a more long-term sustainable view on what might be coming our way is important. And this is much better than we had before, £445 million. The question is what does the next phase look like.

It's building that pipeline of future projects.

It's the pipeline. The point is, if they gave us a whole tonne of money now, unless you've got sight of where you're heading in future, you might not be able to spend it, because you can't start a project without knowing if you're going to have money to see it through.

I've got some good ideas in west Wales.

The First Minister has to leave at 12:45, so, Cefin, I'm going to give you possibly the last question, it depends how long it takes.

If I could ask the First Minister whether she agrees with 11 of her colleagues—some sitting around the table, and others on the screen—who believe that there's been a rolling back of the devolution settlement.

I've always been clear that we've got to defend the devolution settlement. There's no difference in my view. That's always been my view, and something that I will always be clear on. I think what's important now is that we focus, though, on the things that are really critical that are ahead of us today—the fact that we're going to see a massive increase in the number of people having flu in the next few weeks. Those are the kind of things that I'm focused on at the moment. We are going to see a huge increase in flu cases. It's good that 800,000 of our citizens have been vaccinated, which is more than there were last year, but the thing that I'm probably more worried about in relation to the NHS is not just flu, but also a significant increase in RSV in the under-fives, so I would like the public to bear this in mind.

We've talked a lot about the NHS this morning. The key thing for me is that we take the pressure off the NHS by doing what we can to support ourselves, to protect ourselves, to make sure that we get the vaccinations if we're eligible, maybe buy a vaccination as a Christmas present for your loved ones if they're not eligible. These are the kind of things that I think we have to focus on, which I think are here and now and relevant. But just to make it clear, I will always fight Wales's corner and always make sure that, on the devolution settlement, we make the case for that to be respected, and I've made that clear on several occasions.

I understand the pressures of the here and now, especially the health issues that you refer to, but there is a wider constitutional issue as well running in parallel to everything else, in particular the Pride in Place project, which completely undermines the devolution process. Would you perhaps consider a judicial review into the way that the Westminster Government has handled that particular project? Do you believe it does undermine devolution?

Plaid Cymru is always going to be more focused on constitutional issues than the things that matter to the people in our communities, the bread and butter issues that really impact on them. The things we've been talking about today, the health issues, the transport issues, the education issues, those are the things I think that people within our communities really care about and want us to focus on.

When it comes to the constitutional issues, I've said before and I'll say again I will always fight Wales's corner. If you want an example of where things have changed, though, the local growth fund now is under the control of the Welsh Government. Before, it was being managed from the UK Government. We are now responsible for distributing, for determining, how we're going to spend that £550 million-odd that previously the Tory Government were determining from Westminster. How about recognising that as a step very much in the right direction? And that's an offer, by the way, that is not being given to every other part of the United Kingdom.

It's really important to recognise that we're making progress, and we'll always fight for our corner. But we in the Labour Party are the only credible Government for Wales who can pick up the phone to the Prime Minister and make the case for Wales. We're honest about the pressures. I think we're very clear-eyed about the need to improve, but I think we're also the only party who've got the experience to run the NHS and schools and our local services. We're the only party that can provide the stability that this country needs in an age of instability.

And let's be clear, there are really concerning things happening. We're just hearing about the real difficulties and challenges coming from Russia and elsewhere. Peace is something we've taken for granted in this country for a very long time. I think we've got the values to put fairness first, and I think we have the leadership and the team to turn this moment into a brighter future. I think it's a choice for people between anger and answers, experiments or experience, and I think risking everything rather than finishing the job that we've started.

I will call it a—. There is a debate on this next week, so there'll be more opportunities to have that discussion next week. And we are at that time, but I'm going to take the prerogative of the Chair and just leave you with a thought, rather than ask you a question. I'm very pleased you answered the question about flu because I was concerned about the flu pandemic. We saw last night on the news the pressures and the corridor care, consequentially, of those pressures in England. We must make sure we address those here, because it's going to be very heavily pressurised, our health service, particularly over Christmas, I think.

But I'm going to leave you with a thought on health again—two things. I met with the British Heart Foundation this week, who are very concerned about cardiovascular disease and how we can actually do preventative measures to reduce CVD cases. So, I want you to take that one away and start talking to them about that. Also, I chaired the cross-party group on cancer about a fortnight ago and listened to a couple of consultants on less survivable cancers, who were very concerned about—I think the word was 'blockage'—the blockage that Welsh Government was giving to some of the ways they actually wanted to do things, with some of their patients. So, I think you need to have discussions with some of the professionals in that area, because they're feeling very much as if Welsh Government is not letting them get on with the business of treating patients with certain conditions. So, I'll leave you with that thought to go away and talk to them. The cancer network is one obvious avenue, but this is more, I think, not just the professionals in the network but the officials as well.

And with that, can I say thank you very much for your time, First Minister? We have come to the end of the time. You will receive a copy of the transcript to check for factual inaccuracies. Please let the team know if any occur and we'll get them corrected. Can I thank you for the two sessions, First Minister, and your officials? And we'll have one more session before the end of this Senedd term.

Thank you. Can't wait. [Laughter.]

I'm sure it will be interesting and informative.

A happy Christmas to you all. Thank you.

With that in mind, I now propose, in accordance with Standard Order 17.42, to resolve to exclude the public for the remainder of today's meeting. Are Members content to do so? I see everyone is in agreement. Therefore, we'll now move into private session.