Equality and Social Justice Committee

I think that there's been an improvement, and I think that that improvement coincides with there being a Labour Government in Westminster. I'm not sure it's because of a Labour Government in Westminster. The reason I say that is because I think the straw that broke the camel's back was, about a year ago now, the Welsh Affairs Committee, and indeed this committee, were told about the vexatious allegation against me for making those FOIs. I think that was what, effectively, got people around the table to say, 'Okay, this has gone too far now.' It didn't feel as though there was any material change in the dialogue after July when there was a new Labour Government. I think what that did was fixed people's minds. I think it's fair to say that Ian Barrow, as the executive director of His Majesty's Prison and Probation Service in Wales, has played a pretty big role in making sure that this is now moved forward. So, it has coincided, I think, with what happened last July, as opposed to it being because of that.

Thank you. Let us thank Ian Barrow publicly for this data release. But it is really deplorable that we are only now, since September, being able to find out where the Welsh prisoners are by the simple method of looking at the postcode of their last address before they were imprisoned. It's pretty devastating. How useful do you think that having that data now is for making policy in Wales and making certain that we have proper scrutiny of what is going on?

I think it's very important, for a number of reasons. First, because we now have a UK Government who acknowledge that there is a need to have these data available. For a long time, there has been a lot of quibbling about what defines 'Welsh' and whether or not we can do this. I think that's really helpful, because it pushes that to one side and we can have a grown-up conversation about what's happening in Wales. So, that's the first thing. Secondly, it makes it a lot easier. My evenings have become a lot more relaxing now that I no longer have to use freedom of information to get all of these various forms of data. There's a symbolism to it that this is publicly available, that it's okay for us to think about a Welsh criminal justice system. I think that that's not to be overlooked.

I think there's a danger that there's a complacency, now that those data are available, that what then now follows on is we have a more literate, informed and critical discussion of the Welsh criminal justice system. Something I've been saying for years is that the data are the first hurdle, the next step is now trying to make sense of them and use them. I think the Senedd research service and the blogs that have been put out recently are an example of exactly what we need. Rather than them just sitting there in an Excel file, we now need to make sense of them. That's the difficult bit. The easy bit is writing the FOIs and sending them off. The difficult bit is the next bit.

On that, what I would say is if you look at the 'Anti-racist Wales Action Plan', which I did yesterday for another reason, which, of course, this committee scrutinised in its 'Action, not words' inquiry, if you look at the chapter on crime and justice, the data included in that are on an England and Wales basis. Lots of the data included in Welsh Government outputs will be England and Wales data, even when there are Wales-only data available. I think the next step is trying to say, 'We have these data, but we now need to encourage people, where those data are already available, to use those Welsh data', otherwise what's the point in 13 years of FOI or us accessing these? So, it's very important, but the next step is going beyond just accessing the data and actually using them.

Lord Timpson has written to us to say that further

'data development would require additional expenditure that is not currently available'.

In your view, is cost a barrier or are there other factors that make it challenging to publish more comprehensive Wales-specific data?

I think the answer to that question is it will depend on your priorities. Data can lead to evidence-based policy. Evidence-based policy can lead to much improved outcomes. That will cost money, but it will, of course, also save a huge amount of money, and, let's be perfectly frank, it will save a lot of human misery and suffering as a result of a failed criminal justice system. So, there may well be cost, but you can argue it's a price worth paying. So, no, I don't see that as a valid or justifiable stance to not make these data available.

Wales has a very unique and anomalous set of arrangements. There have been proposals laid by the Thomas commission to do something about those arrangements. If the UK Government in Westminster choose not to do those proposals, then there are costs in terms of financial costs, but also personal costs and the cost for committees, academics and various people who have to try and make sense of this highly complex and anomalous system. That's not a good enough justification to not make these data available, as far as I'm concerned.

So, a clear message: invest to save. Based on your discussions with the Ministry of Justice, how often do you expect the Wales-specific data set to be updated? Is this going to be an annual event or quarterly updates?

Correct, I think it's going to be an annual event. My understanding is it will be in July.

Okay, but nothing at all about quarterly updates as and when.

No. They will have quarterly data in them, but it will be once a year.

Okay, thank you for that. Julie Morgan, would you like to—?

Yes, thank you very much. Prynhawn da. I was going to ask you about the Welsh disaggregated data working group, which you're on, I think. Are you on it?

I might be, I don't—. Is this the Welsh Government's group?

No, I don't think this is the Welsh Government's group.

There's a group that I've been privy to some of its conversations. There was one meeting, but I think, perhaps, because of the speed of developments—. 'Speed' is perhaps the wrong word to use, but because of the way in which the developments proceeded over the last year, I don't think we've had formal meetings as a group, as such.

Right. So, who chairs it? Do you know who chairs it?

I know the Welsh Government have had a group that was referred to as a disaggregated data group, and I think it would be Welsh Government, but who, I'm not sure. For example, I would ordinarily get a meeting invitation to a meeting of whatever the committee or group. I've not had one of those, probably since early last year, so if it is meeting, I'm not aware of those meetings.

Right. Lord Timpson said that the group looked at almost 400 requests from the Welsh Government for specific justice data and they found that 40 per cent was already available. And then there was an issue of why is it so difficult to get, even if it is available. I don't know if you've got any comment on that.

I have, and that makes sense, it's the group that you're referring to, but it's not something I've been regularly invited to.

But you've got some knowledge of it.

Absolutely, yes. Sorry for the confusion. Following the vexatious incident last December—again, it's not only Ian Barrow, but I think Ian Barrow is the person who should be credited with helping to move this forward—I had a discussion with an HMPPS official in January to identify a list of areas that I thought were key priority areas. A separate set of discussions have been taking place with the Welsh Government and HMPPS. So, effectively, I've given a list of the things that I've been using and accessing for the best part of a decade, and the Welsh Government has provided its own list on the basis of the work that it does across its various responsibilities for social policy. That's the issue around the 40 per cent.

I was invited to a meeting, I think after that list had gone in, almost to refocus the discussion, would be my understanding, because this list was rather large, slightly unwieldy, and there was a danger, at that time, that they were poles apart in terms of what they thought was reasonable and what they didn’t. So I think the priority areas that you see in the justice data release in September was an attempt to try and focus on getting something over the line for now, and perhaps then we return to, if you like, the 60 per cent that aren't already available.

Right. What about data on homelessness in prisons, for example, and Welsh language use? Because I think we've heard that it'll be by the end of 2026 that that might be available. Have you got any comment on that? Because they seem to be quite crucial areas.

Absolutely. On both of those things, you're right, they weren't included in the September release, and there's this loose expectation that, at some point, they will be.

The Welsh language data is a source of concern, because the argument is that those data don't need to be published in the Welsh justice data annual release because they will be made available as part of HMPPS's reporting on its new Welsh language scheme. The concerns you then have are that if you look at the last Welsh language scheme, which ran from 2020 to 2023, there was a commitment to produce an annual report, but not one annual report was produced. Instead, what they did at the end of the scheme was produce one report that covered the progress across the whole of the scheme. So, there isn't a very good track record on these annual reports being published.

If access to those Welsh data or the data on the language are contingent on an annual report, then it strikes me why not just include them in an annual release when this stuff has already been made available anyway. And then if the report is delayed for whatever reason, then we won't necessarily miss out on those data. That's almost a separate concern related to progress against HMPPS's Welsh language scheme, which, of course, the Welsh Language Commissioner is currently investigating.

On homelessness, again, I think I wrote to the committee and explained the update I received. There are some issues—I think it was around capacity to do that. But to come back to the point I think that you made in your question, they're very important data, and I would like to think that, in July, they can be added. Given that they were provided to me through FOI, again, I'm not sure why they couldn't just be added to the data release anyway.

It all seems a bit confused, really, doesn't it?

It does. What you've had over the last 12 months is the Welsh Affairs Committee scrutinising this topic, this committee scrutinising this topic, the Welsh Government have their list, but the question of vexatiousness has come from my work. I think that there's been, from HMPPS's point of view, a sense of, 'Who are we responding to here?' Certainly with regard to the Welsh Government and myself, I think they made the decision to focus on those priority areas for now. My hope or my thought process is that once we get into 2026, once the Welsh Affairs Committee has reported, and once, in a sense, the dust has settled on the September release, then begins the conversation about what does the next release include. Call me a pessimist, but my other thought is just to make sure that we get a second release. After 13 years of hearing lots of different promises and pledges that these data will be made available, it's fantastic that we've had the first release, but having a second release is the key thing—that they actually do follow through and make sure that those are available, as well as adding new sources of data.

Okay, I think—

Can I be just absolutely clear a moment? That release in September, was that stuff that was already in the public domain somewhere else? Or was that completely new?

Completely new. Completely new.

Thank you.

Thank you. We may come back to data if we've got time later on, but can I now call Jane Dodds to discuss some of the policy issues arising?

Yes, thank you, Chair, and thank you very much for your work in this area. It's been very important. I just want to ask about the figures regarding how many people are on remand. We've seen the figures increase, as I understand it from the reports that you've been responsible for. What policy changes could help to reduce the high proportion of remand prisoners? And what do we need to focus on to ensure that, hopefully, the number of prisoners on remand does reduce and stays at a low level?

Okay, diolch, thank you. So, I think first and foremost we don't, from a Wales-only level, have an understanding about why there has been such an increase. So, I think the first thing for me, actually, in response to the data that was included in the fact file, would be to give magistrates and judges the option or the opportunity to explain why this has increased in Wales. So, before we can even begin to think about reversing it, I think understanding it is absolutely vital. I caveat everything in the fact file with: this is a snapshot of what we find when we drill down into the data. So, I think, first and foremost, that would be the first port of call.

But the second point, then—and this is a point I'm sure the committee, perhaps, due to its previous work, will want to come back to, and that's in relation to women—. The committee's report on women's experiences in the justice system, there was a snapshot of magistrates referred to in there, where 50 per cent of magistrates in Wales had never heard of the women's justice blueprint. Now, of course the women's justice blueprint includes a commitment to promote alternatives to remand, and so, in a sense, when you combine those, even if there were policies or there were initiatives to promote alternatives to remand, to what extent are they actually being properly advertised? Are people aware of them?

Those two things, for me, would be the starting point, to actually listen to the people who are responsible, if you like, for this practice, and then build up your understanding from there. But that, of course, requires some action from what's included in the fact file.

Thank you very much. That is quite upsetting, to tell you the truth, that 50 per cent hadn't heard of the blueprint. Thank you.

I'd like to move on now to women, and you mentioned women there, and particularly the fact that there is no data available in terms of children and mothers living separately—that is, in Wales. And we understand that some attempts have been made to obtain that data, but we don't have that data yet. What can we, as a committee, do to try and obtain that data? What mechanisms or which people do you think are important for us, as a committee, to contact to ensure that that data is available? Thank you.

I think, given the progress that's been made over the last 12 months, and I've said this on a number of occasions now, I think HMPPS in Wales have been key to that. My first port of call for this committee would be to contact HMPPS in Wales and explain very clearly that attempts, as you correctly say, have been made. Multiple attempts have been made, and in fact I've been led a little bit on a merry dance, actually, throughout the course of that, really.

For example, there were statistics published in July 2024, maybe, that dealt with parental imprisonment, and so, in response to an FOI, I was put off to say these data will be made available in July. They were then published in July. I then asked for the Welsh breakdown of those data and was told, 'Sorry, that would exceed the cost limit of the Freedom of Information Act.' So, there are clearly some data gathered, and my advice to the committee would be to perhaps write to the executive director of HMPPS in Wales, Ian Barrow, and ask for a conversation about accessing those data, or what are the barriers? What are the impediments to actually accessing those data? Because, as you correctly say, it is vitally important. And indeed, I think I remember a cross-party group in the Senedd in 2013, 2014, that was on parental imprisonment, run by Barnardo's. So, this has been something that, in the Senedd, has been discussed for quite a long time.

Thank you, and then my final question regarding women and short sentences. We hear that women are still given short sentences. What action should be taken to tackle the number of short sentences given to women in Wales? Thank you very much.

Okay. Again, I think it's similar to the question on remand. When I go through these data—and I think it was 24 per cent of all Welsh women sentenced last year were for a month or less—if you just look at those numbers, I can't understand it. I'm not a magistrate, I'm not a judge, but I just cannot understand how that would happen. So, it would be, I think, a really good opportunity to ask somebody to explain the circumstances where that is used, and, in a sense, put feelings to one side about what we feel about those sentences, just somebody to talk us through in what circumstances is that used. In what circumstances is that ever seen as a viable, justifiable option?

And I think, again, it's a case of, no matter how appalled we might be by that practice, given what we know about the impact—the devastating impact—that imprisonment has, starting with trying to understand why this might happen I think is important for Wales, actually taking this seriously, looking at it almost as dispassionately as possible, to just begin to understand. Once you get that information, then we can perhaps begin to think about, well, how do we then put this right? But I think we have to understand the problem first.

One of my concerns over the years is that every year a fact file is published and there's some initial interest and concern, but, from the Welsh Government and indeed the Government in London, there never really seems to be any genuine attempt to delve into the data and to make sense of some of these issues. And so, effectively, it's a case of—. The conclusion of every fact file, I could just copy and paste it, tinker around with a few words, change the year maybe and move a few things around, because there never really seems to be any determined effort to get to the bottom of the problems, the questions that you've asked.

So, I think, for me, just actually trying to understand why remand is being used and why these short terms are being used so frequently would be a really good starting point.

And just very quickly, that would be to magistrates as well? You mentioned in response to my first question that would be with magistrates. Would that be with anybody else that we should be asking why this is happening?

Particularly the magistrates, if you look at the data, but the judges as well, so the crown court as well. There are—. I think it was 90 per cent of all of those short terms that I referred to were in the magistrates' court. And the fact that there is a breakdown in the crown court and the magistrates' court, and there is also some percentages on the number of women remanded as a percentage, and it was, again, higher again last year. So, not exclusively magistrates, but—. And, obviously, given the UK Government's proposals for certain changes in certain areas and greater powers for magistrates, now is the time to be, I think, exploring that, definitely.

Thank you very much, Chair.

Are you aware of any research in the academic community on the social class profile of magistrates, whether that might be a factor?

I seem to think the Howard League for Penal Reform have done some work around the role of the magistrates. What I would just say is that Leah Reed, who is doing a PhD at the Wales governance centre, Cardiff University, looking at women's experiences of imprisonment, had attempted to get the Magistrates' Association involved in the research, but there was no response. So, it's not an easy task, even when you are doing serious work to try and actually get to the bottom of some of these issues.

Okay, thank you for that information.

If I could, Chair, wouldn't there be anything in the training of magistrates that explained the damage and well, stupidity, really, of these short sentences?

Briefly, because we need to move on.

You would think so, but I don't know what that training looks like or how intense that training is, but you would think so. And it might well be the case.

Altaf Hussain, would you like to come in now?

Thank you very much. Good afternoon, Dr Jones. My question is about safety and well-being. Your fact file shows a record number of deaths in custody in Welsh prisons, but you also identified a gap in official data on this issue. What data is currently published on deaths in custody for Welsh prisons and for Welsh prisoners held in England, and what changes are needed to ensure this information is reported consistently and transparently?

Okay. So, first and foremost, data for Welsh prisons is publicly available, so those data, which are broken down by type of death for each Welsh prison, they're available. If we had a computer here now, we could go on the Ministry of Justice's safety and custody statistics and look at those.

The gap I think that you're referring to there is in relation to people who are Welsh, based on their home address. So, ahead of last year's fact file, so the 2024 fact file, I sent a freedom of information request asking for a breakdown of the total number of deaths in England and Wales, how many of those were from Wales, and it was refused on the basis that those data were, I think from memory, held in separate places—so, home address data is in one area and safety is in another. But this year, I was actually able to find out how many people from Wales featured in the self-inflicted deaths statistics. So, what that would tell me ahead of next year's fact file is that there's now scope to think about going further with those requests. So, again, you can ask for how many Welsh people feature in the data on self-inflicted deaths; can we have a breakdown by sex, which would of course be very, very important for lots of different reasons; can we have an understanding of where in the prison estate those deaths are. So, in a sense, that's been the pattern for the last decade, really. Ask a question, see what you get, and build it up from there. That's always the advice I've given to people, which, of course, you can imagine takes a long, long time. It takes a long, long time to get to a point when you then understand what information is available and how far you can poke and pick and pull things around.

But just to add to that, we can also now get how many people from Wales feature in the self-harm data as well. So, over the last two years, those are two new areas that we've been able to uncover, and, I guess, ahead of next year's fact file, given that maybe there's a bit more time freed up as a result of the Welsh justice data release, I can probably start to probe a bit further in those areas.

Thank you very much. Now, the second question is: what systemic factors are driving the increase in assault and self-harm incidents? What interventions have proved effective elsewhere? For example, HMP Parc, in my region, has had an exceedingly high number of deaths, which have been attributed to illicit drugs brought in by drones. Now, earlier this year, it was reported that drones have been used to deliver a broad range of lifestyle products to UK prisons. A few days back, there was news that drones delivered steak, crab legs and cannabis to US prisons. It is a concern, and what are your thoughts about it?

Yes. I, firstly, share the concern. In terms of the specifics and the explanations, I don't work in a prison, nor do I go in very often, and so I think it would be a mistake for me to try to explain that, when I genuinely don't know the ins and outs of that.

What I would say, from afar, is one of the biggest issues that often gets overlooked are what are referred to, in inverted commas, as 'natural cause deaths'. I think what that asks us to think about is the standard and quality of healthcare in the Welsh prison estate. Now, given that healthcare, of course, is a devolved area of policy, this is something that the then Health, Social Care and Sport Committee carried out an inquiry into. In 2019, I think it finished. Or did it start in 2019 and finish in 2021? I can't remember now. So, I think the natural cause deaths are the elephant in the room, actually, when we think about deaths in prison. That's not to say that those others that we saw, particularly at Parc last year, with regard to substances, are not, of course, to be taken seriously, but I think that the standard of healthcare is absolutely something to be thought about. The average life expectancy of prisoners, we know, is significantly lower, so what is being done about that? And I will actually just use this as an opportunity to once again point to the fact that, since that inquiry, since 2014, we've pointed to an underfund in prisoner healthcare in the Welsh prison estate for primary healthcare. I've been doing that year on year for goodness knows how long. So, that's another thing to add to that story, I think.

Thank you very much. Now my last question. Your fact file shows a sharp rise in homelessness among released prisoners and flags it as a serious systemic issue linked to resettlement and public safety. The Welsh Government's Homelessness and Social Housing Allocation (Wales) Bill introduces new duties for local authorities to support people leaving prison. How effective do you expect this change to be and how important is reliable data for making these changes work?

I think reliable data is incredibly important, because it allows us to get a sense of the problem. As somebody who walks through Cardiff city centre every single day to work and back, I see it with my eyes every single day, the problem of rough-sleeping and homelessness. So, to have those data available is vitally important, I think.

In terms of its success, obviously we wait to see what the new Bill will achieve, but I think it's worth reflecting on what happened to priority need and, in a sense, the issues that led to the removal of priority need, I think in 2014. When it was introduced in 2001, or the early noughties, it was celebrated. It was regarded internationally as an evidence-based policy, it was something that was going to deal head on with the issue of those leaving the prison estate as homeless. But, of course, the policy was curtailed, and one of the reasons it was curtailed was because you effectively had a policy here in Wales having to deal with the overflow of criminal justice policies set way upstream, if you like, in London, for this analogy, and in particular the use of short-term sentences. Local authorities, housing services and probation couldn't deal with the churn of people coming through the system. Now, we're here in 2025, and in the previous questions we were talking about the use of short-term sentences. The jagged edge is alive and well when it comes to homelessness and housing, and we cannot avoid that conclusion once again. So, the fate of the next effort, if you like, to try to tackle homelessness, it's really important that that's scrutinised properly and effectively, and that the Welsh Government is doing everything it can within its powers to tackle that. But, the elephant in the room is that we're dealing with a criminal justice system where people continue to be sent for short-term sentences. Forgive me for being pessimistic or cynical, but it's hard not to think that we're going to have many of the same problems again for housing services across Wales if you don't deal with those criminal justice factors as well, and I don't think that the UK Government are.

Thank you very much. Thanks, Chair.

Thank you. Mick Antoniw, would you like to come in, please?

Yes. Could I ask a couple of questions now about some of the points that arise in the data you've acquired with regard to, I suppose, discrimination within the justice system and within imprisonment? One thing that was very clear from your data was that, if you come from a black or ethnic minority background, your prospects in just about every respect of the criminal justice system are adverse. You're less likely to get probation, you're more likely to be put on remand, the length of prison sentences, parole issues and so on. In terms of the data you've been acquiring, has there been any change or any greater clarity that you can give us about that? And I'd like to then come on to a little bit about the sentencing council issue.

In relation to the data and whether things are improving or changing, I don't think I've seen any real improvement or change. I would have to, maybe, look into it more specifically in those various areas you've looked at—so, how remand has changed year on year. And one of the things, of course, that we always try to do is to take a real sweep, so from 2017 to now, so that there's no suggestion that last year was a bad year; this is a consistent pattern and trend. I've not really seen any significant difference—for example, there's no sense that an anti-racist strategy has, at least on the data, made any discernible difference or impact on that in terms of the data. The qualitative aspect of that, of course, is another set of issues, and there's a demand for research in that area, but not in terms of the data that I've looked at.

You'll be aware, won't you, of the research that was being done in Manchester, which actually expanded, really, upon the concerns about the fact that we had almost a two-tier sentencing system in terms of the criminal justice sector. And that was, obviously, something that the sentencing guidelines council had a look at, in terms of how you actually address it and why you have got this discriminatory factor that seems to be built in now to our justice system. Now, with the last justice Minister, Shabana Mahmood, this became a matter of quite some controversy, didn't it, because the sentencing guidelines council said it was necessary to actually start understanding the background data on the people who were being sentenced and why this was happening. This then became a political hot potato in terms of are we developing a two-tier sentencing policy. But the fact of the matter is that, on the basis that this has now been, I suppose, really overturned by the UK Government, is there anything that is taking place that you are aware of that is trying to address the reason why we have this imbalance now in the fact that you have a much more adverse position in the criminal justice system if you come from a black or ethnic minority background?

Not in Wales. I'm aware that, obviously, as part of the 'Anti-racist Wales Action Plan', and there was the anti-racism action plan, there are plenty of discussions about it and plenty of discussions about the existence of the problem. But, to the best of my knowledge, and so I say this from the position that there may well be things that are happening, but, certainly from my perspective, I'm not aware of any particular initiatives or programmes that are happening in Wales to try and tackle that.

What I would say from my part of the world is that, again, this is another example where, since 2018, we've been pointing to these data, but we haven't really seen any in-depth piece of research to try and understand this. I'm going to be like a bit of a broken record, as I have been in previous appearances before this committee and others: there is zero investment in research on criminal justice in Wales, which means we haven't got the capacity to actually go and do that and think about some of those issues that you've raised just there, including the suggestion of a two-tier system. As I said in the conclusion of the fact file on the idea that we haven't already got a two-tier system, you could only come to that conclusion if you ignored the data that are included in the fact file. There's compelling evidence that there already is one, except that, of course, the discussion was taken in another direction by the then Secretary of State for Justice.

It seems to me to make very little sense that we've had this controversy—we've had a change of policy to basically avoid the recommendations coming from the sentencing guidelines council, which seek to address this, but there seems to me there's been no alternative to try and tackle this particular issue. Now, a lot of the prisoners, of course, coming into Wales will be from other parts of the UK, so they will have been allocated to prisons in Wales, as I understand it. So, the problem seems to be one that's not just within Wales, but one probably quite across the UK. Is that fair? There's probably no reason to believe that, I suppose, the discrimination taking place within the criminal justice system is any different in Wales to what it is in the rest of the UK, and that seems to have been upheld by the Manchester research that was done some years ago now.

There's a section in the fact file where there is a breakdown relative to population, and I think that the level of over-representation is higher in Wales, slightly, but it's never something that I necessarily put front and centre when we publish the work, because, in a sense, in and of itself—. Comparisons with England can often be very helpful, but comparisons with England can often be very unhelpful, in that it then simply becomes a discussion of, 'We're worse than England', as opposed to, 'We've got a problem here in Wales. We need to take it seriously for Welsh communities'. And so, in a sense, you're right that if we were having this discussion in Greater Manchester, in London, in the west midlands, in Merseyside, we would be able to have, again, a very similar discussion. But I think, from my perspective, it's absolutely right that we have the discussion in Wales for Wales, because this is something that—. As we know, Wales, within the context of the England and Wales system is lost—we get completely lost and, therefore, it's very often seen as, 'This is a London issue. This is a Greater Manchester issue. This is a Merseyside issue.' We've never really tackled that incredibly uncomfortable question that, 'Actually, no, it isn't; it's a Wales issue.' So, that is hopefully something that is—. There's evidence every year in a fact file for someone to have that discussion; they just have to want to have that discussion.

Yes. I suppose the real concern is that this is a matter that is not being addressed. Obviously, it really stands out, the failure of the justice system. I am going to come on a bit later to the supplementary report you prepared, so, Chair, I've got a few questions that might link in with this and devolved functions, but—

Okay. I'd like to bring in Sioned Williams. So, you've got some further questions on this equality issue, have you?

It will tie in with some of the questions I want to ask on the supplementary report, so I'll happily leave those to a bit later on, if that's okay.

Okay. All right. Well, Sioned Williams, do you want to come in at this point?

Yes. Mick has asked some of the questions that I was going to ask, in particular on equality. But, just to return very briefly to the fact that your fact file highlights the stark ethnic disparities that exist within incarceration rates in Wales, but in the UK more generally as well, in terms of the evidence that we have, what steps could the Ministry of Justice take to reduce these inequalities? And what data improvements are needed to monitor any progress on those actions?

To come to the data first and foremost, there are I think what are called 'ethnicity in the criminal justice' statistics releases every two years. Now, again, if we were to kind of pull them up on a screen and look through those, there's a a very compelling case to think about disaggregating many of those data for Wales. So, as part of future conversations for what data need to be made available, I think there is, again on a Wales only level—. You know, we're dealing with very, very basic forms of data here. In 10 years' time, there'll be people looking at some of the stuff I've been putting out and hopefully criticising it for how basic it is, because it'll be far more sophisticated at that point. So, I think there's scope there as part of future discussions, in maybe the committee's future scrutiny on this, to think about those releases in particular.

In terms of what can be done—and you mentioned the UK Government—on the Lammy review, implementing the Lammy review would be a starting point. I forget how many recommendations of the Lammy review are still outstanding. It's a bit like the Thomas review, and it's a bit like a lot of these. The Thomas commission review, those recommendations, they were sound at the time and they're still sound now, and the problems they spoke to then, we're still speaking to them now. So, there is a danger that, in a sense, we kind of reheat the problem and we look at it in a new light and, in many ways—. And the irony, of course, is that David Lammy is now responsible in this area. So, in many respects, actually pulling the Lammy review back and actually thinking about implementing those and taking seriously those recommendations—.

From my own perspective, I would like to see there be a slightly more engaged discussion in Wales about this, about what can be done in Wales. I think that, given the the size of Wales and the opportunities here of, effectively, people working together on this stuff, I think there's some scope to do some interesting and important work here in Wales. So, that, in a sense, perhaps reveals something about my faith in any Government in London to do something about this. But, from my perspective, I think there's a need for a healthy discussion, whether that be after the next election on this in Wales.

Thank you. Just generally then, in terms of the data that is available generally, or that is published, on other protected characteristics such as disability, such as sexual orientation or religion, what gaps do you see in these areas? What specific other data would you like to see being gathered and published in order to monitor equality in Welsh prisons?

That's a really good question, and might be something that I can probably come back to the committee on in writing in terms of those equality data. I currently have a PhD student who started in October who's looking at disability. Of course, how you define disability and what that looks—. There are all kinds of things bound up within that. But it's pretty clear that there's not a lot of data available around that. We have been collecting information and data on religion. We get it on age as well. We get it on sex as well. I've been asking for neurodiversity as well, which has been quite interesting in and of itself, how the prisons differ. It's endless, I guess. There's so little out there, as in data available, that this can become a very, very long list. But all these things are very, very important, so I'm happy to produce an exhaustive list.

What I tend to do, though, almost strategically, is look at what do the UK Government make available on an England and Wales level and piggyback onto that, so that you're never asking for something they don't already make available, so that it's not unreasonable then, as I see it. If they make it available on an England and Wales level, then, given their insistence under the current constitutional arrangements, they can make the Wales-only data available. That tends to be my way of thinking about it. So, it's probably a case of looking at what they already make available in those areas and going from there.

Thank you. I just have one final question, Chair, if I could. I just sense how much frustration that you're expressing, as someone who's been working on this for such a long time, with, as you say, the battle that there's been to get the data, the gaps that still persist, but also the lack of will, more than anything, to do anything about this, as what you've been revealing through your research receives attention and comes to the attention of policy makers and Governments. Why, do you feel, nothing is being done about this?

Yes. The frustration comes through, then. From my part of the world, I work at Cardiff University, which in 2022 created a position of a lecturer in the Welsh criminal justice system. They have invested significantly in this area. One of the things that we have argued for before—and indeed this committee made a recommendation for the establishment of a Welsh criminal justice observatory in its 'Action, not words' inquiry report—is the addition of some capacity, just another person alongside me, perhaps, who can field queries from committees, who can provide things like the Parc briefing recently, following the debate that was in the Chamber on 26 November—just somebody else to do this stuff. Forgetting devolution, the merits of, for now—just the operation of the Welsh criminal justice system, the day to day what did the data tell us, what are all these other sources of information actually revealing about Welsh communities and how people experience the Welsh system. You don't even need to deal with the question of how you would devolve police, or what does it mean for probation, just the operation of the system.

Because the idea that—. If the UK Government turned around tomorrow and said, 'We've reread the Thomas commission; okay, we're going to do it, we're going to devolve the system', they're devolving a system that we don't understand. We don't understand it. That doesn't mean it shouldn't happen, but we have to understand the Welsh system before we're, effectively, responsible for it. At the moment, we don't understand the Welsh system. Every single time we publish a fact file, there is a sense of shock and awe about some of these things. We shouldn't be surprised by some of these things. They should be part of the normal routine of doing things. So, the work that this committee is doing and the Welsh Affairs Committee is doing is so incredibly helpful for someone like me, because it gives me an opportunity to share information, but also that there's somebody else looking at this. So, there is a lot of frustration, yes.

Diolch, Cadeirydd.

[Inaudible.]—cover the agenda. Mick Antoniw.

Thanks. Just following on from that point, isn't the crux of the problem that it’s not just within Wales that it's not understood, but the understanding of the way the criminal justice system is operating is probably applicable across the whole of the UK, and it's the fact that we seem to have maintained a centralised, Victorian, outdated, over-centralised justice system that has been failing decade after decade, and, really, with very little attempt to actually address the issues within that justice system? Is that a fair comment?

When you look at the imprisonment rates in Scotland, and the increasing imprisonment rate in Northern Ireland, I think it is. I think it's worth putting out that, even if you know your system, it doesn't mean that it necessarily then improves, but I think it's a prerequisite for improving it to understand it. But, no, we could be sat here in Louisiana, where there's probably a lot of work done on the criminal justice system, but it doesn't mean it necessarily works. So, you're right, there is a conversation there across the UK, absolutely, which is why—and I'll keep this brief—over the summer I went to visit the Institute of Criminology and Legal Policy at the University of Helsinki, because, in one of the reports we produced for the Thomas commission, it was identified as spearheading the attempts there to reduce the imprisonment rate. So, there are other places in Europe that we can certainly learn from, and, again, I think research has played a key role in that.

Well, just to follow on from that, the recidivism rates are absolutely appalling. Recidivism ties in a lot with the way in which health and education operate within our prisons, which have been, I suppose, too cramped and underinvested in for them to operate properly. But also, once prisoners do come out, the actual engagement with what are, effectively, devolved functions, devolved services within Wales, almost means that that lack of engagement and consistent integration—. Surely that must mean that it's almost doomed to failure. Do you see that breakdown, that jagged edge there, as part of the reasons why we have such high rates, or do you have other reasons as well?

I think the big issue is who’s accountable. I think, when you've got the jagged edge, who's accountable? Because, as you correctly point out there, you can look at the Welsh Government and their responsibilities, and, of course, the UK Government, look at their responsibilities, and there is a sense that they're pointing at each other, saying, 'Well, that's your area', and, likewise, 'Well, that's your area.' So, I think that's where there's a sense of pessimism, is in who is ultimately accountable for those failures. Now, of course, the answer is both. But there, of course, doesn't really seem to be an appetite to think about the criminal justice system in the Welsh context.

Yes. We do have—. Statements have been made by UK Government, which are, essentially, that there's no way they're going to be looking at the devolution of the criminal justice system. There are some discussions, obviously, taking place on the youth justice sector, but it seems to me that reflects, really, this over-centralised, I suppose, control system of a justice system that's failing.

Can I ask you a little bit about HM Parc prison, about the supplementary report that you've prepared now? It seems to me you've got a prison there that has had very many significant failings, and yet the overall solution across the UK, which obviously impacts on Parc prison, is to just expand places. Now, we've dealt a little bit with the fact that we're investing—there are apparently hundreds of millions of pounds to be invested in creating more places, investment that I think Lord Thomas and others have, obviously, suggested over the years would be far better spent tackling the actual issues of either keeping people out of prison, or making sure they don't go back into prison afterwards. And that seems to be the fundamental contradiction in the current policy. But what is the logic, reached from the data and any of the evidence, as to the expansion of Parc prison at a time when it is facing so many other challenges?

I'm afraid you're asking the wrong person, and I have the same question about the logic. I don't quite understand why that decision was taken to expand that prison at that particular time, (1) given the safety problems that have been widely reported on. Secondly, Wales already has the highest in-country imprisonment rate in western Europe, and a prison place surplus. That will only add further to it, at a time when the Welsh Government is pursuing policies to try and reduce the number of people in prison. And I think, thirdly, from the briefing, the lack of answers on why Wales has the higher home address imprisonment rate—. These two things have to be viewed together. There are consistently no real answers, no meaningful engagement with the kinds of issues that are raised that face the Welsh system. But, on the same hand, there are attempts to use Wales, again, to increase the capacity of the England and Wales prison estate. Again, it raises questions about Wales's place within these discussions in Whitehall, despite the best efforts, I think, of officials in HMPPS in Wales to try and stick their hand in the air and raise Wales in those conversations.

Can I ask you one question? Again, I don't know whether this comes outside that remit, but it follows on from what you've been saying in your supplementary report. From engagement with other countries—you mentioned Helsinki and so on—do you have any indications at all as to why it is that the imprisonment rates are so enormously high in the UK and so different from many other European countries? What is it that they are doing that is different? Is there any data that gives us any indication as to clearly what it is that we are doing that is fundamentally wrong within our criminal justice system?

There are two questions there—what are we doing wrong; what are they doing right—and, actually, the question of: why do we have the higher rate of imprisonment? On an England and Wales basis first and foremost, I would say, in terms of why, I think deprivation and poverty probably stand out as the big things in terms of why we have a high imprisonment rate, particularly here in Wales. We've done some work on this in England and found that the imprisonment rate in the 10 most deprived areas of England was 10 times higher than in the least deprived areas.

There's a huge body of work on this, and, again, it might be better for me to reply outside of this meeting to give you some evidence on that. We did publish a report for the Thomas commission in 2019 titled, I think it was, 'International evidence on driving down imprisonment rates', where we did identify—. I think we looked at eight countries, including states in the US, where they've actually reduced their prison population levels. It ranges from sentencing initiatives, cultural attitudes—there's a huge amount that goes into it.

The key and important thing is it can be done, and Finland is the example of that. The reason Finland is significant is because it started out from an incredibly high level and came down, and it stayed down. I think it's around about 52 per 100,000 people in prison there, compared to—. Our in-country is about 167, I think, and our home address is about 159, I think, from memory. So, it can be done. I think that's the key point.

May I ask you then, just very quickly, just on the issues of prisoner safety and welfare, and also the ombudsman's findings with inadequate healthcare, I think, which you refer to? You mentioned this point of accountability. Do you see any evidence of any action being taken in respect of those? Now, these are devolved elements, and it seems to me that there is a dysfunction in terms of the centralised system that we have, and actually tackling these issues by the use of devolved functions. Quite frankly, the two seem to work in counter-directions, or are very difficult to co-ordinate. But do you see, I suppose, any changes, anything that might give cause for understanding that there is improvement taking place, or there are things that are specifically being done now to try and tackle those particular issues?

I've not looked at this in the last couple of years, so, again, it's probably not for me to comment on, certainly, some of those recent developments. What I would say is to go back and look at what the recommendations were in the Health, Social Care and—as it was then—Sport Committee's inquiry, whenever it was—2019, 2021; I can never remember the exact date that it was published—to see how many of those were actually implemented, in terms of accountability.

Just one final question, then, from me, because I think this ties in. And you know there's been a lot of pressure, particularly from the Probation Service, that has been through a really dire state of privatisation that didn't work—they've come back into the public sector—but also the nature of the Probation Service and so on. They have called very strongly, actually, for the devolution of that service, which is something that hasn't really been addressed. Do you see any basis in which the data leads to the fact that the role of the probation service in tackling some of these, I suppose, inequalities, these dysfunctions, the recidivism and so on, are in any way related to one another, and that there is a potential for trying to resolve and tackle some of those through a revised, strengthened probation service?

I recognise those challenges you've pointed towards. I think that there's a real danger that we see the answers for these problems always within the ambit of the criminal justice system. This is how criminal justice systems become enormous, because the answer is always, 'Well, if we had a women's prison', or, 'If we had a new prison, a modern prison'—and all of the various different spin-offs from that—or, 'If we had these types of courts, or we had those types of courts', or, 'If we had a better probation system, or with more funding'; it grows and grows and grows. I think that it would be really important for us here in Wales—. Effectively, we have time to prepare for what our system could look like. If we accept that the system will one day be devolved—. Well, while Wales isn't responsible, now's the time to think about what would we want it to look like. What are we going to inherit, and what do we want it to look like? Effectively, if we go back to that example of Finland, one of the reasons it's so successful is that it deals with people who might ordinarily be dealt with in the criminal justice system outside of the criminal justice system. So, while I accept the points and the problems around probation, we have to start thinking beyond the remit of the criminal justice system. The answers are not there, but there are many problems there.

Okay. Chair, thank you for that.

Julie Morgan.

We haven't got much published data on how much funding goes into prisons and probation in Wales and whether the resources are sufficient for the need. So, do you have any plan to look at that subject?

I don't, probably because my maths skills are not quite as good as those of some of my colleagues. I obviously have colleagues in the Wales Governance Centre who do a lot of the work on finance, and did produce three reports, I think, as part of the work for the Thomas commission. But it's not, certainly, on our agenda. I'm fairly certain that, if they were asked to think about it, they could point you in the direction of where that can be done and what that would look like, but it's not necessarily in my current remit.

Okay. Fine.

A final question from me, really: given all that we've discussed today, and everything that's in your two fact files, what do you think both the Senedd and the Welsh Government's position should be towards the proposed expansion of HMP Parc?

I think the Welsh Government's position should be to ask the UK Government not to proceed with the expansion, or at least ask them on what basis is Parc being expanded. I don't see any reason why Parc should be expanded when there are still no answers about Wales's imprisonment rate. That said, even if the UK Government provide answers, that doesn't then open the door for Wales to have more expansion. I think there needs to be a very serious conversation about tackling over-imprisonment in Wales, not just overcrowding.

But like I said in the last line of the briefing, the Welsh Government has very serious commitments to, one, reducing the number of people in prison, and, secondly, having its own agenda on the criminal justice system in Wales. The UK Government is currently insisting upon its own. If the Welsh Government is serious about its own policy in this area, and is serious about its commitments to reduce the number of people in prison in Wales, now is the time to show it, and I think that that's over to them, really.

Thank you for that. Mick Antoniw has a very quick supplementary.

Just a very quick one. All the recommendations that came through the Thomas commission—. We forget that that commission actually involved a very senior level of judiciary, actually; it involved people with considerable legal experience. I've never seen any of those issues being properly addressed or responded to at UK Government level. I don't know whether you have seen anything that actually responds to them, but do you think those recommendations still stand the test of time in terms of needing to be addressed?

I'm currently looking into this as part of a piece of Senedd research. That will be available in February, so it's something I'm thinking about now, and maybe in February I'll be able to have more of a definitive say on it, so I don't want to prejudice the outcome of that work. What I would say is, when I've gone to look at what the UK Government's response is to those recommendations—I've been watching Westminster Hall debates, half-an-hour debates in the Commons, and responses via questions in the Welsh Affairs Committee—I've never really seen a definitive, detailed response to each of those recommendations, and given the seriousness of the work and the seriousness of the people involved, I think it deserved that.

Thank you.

Thank you.

Thank you very much indeed for your commitment to this subject. We look forward to the report you're preparing for February 2026, and we'll see what we can do to build on that. We'll send you a transcript for you to check, to make sure that it's accurate. So, we'll keep in touch. Thank you very much for your attendance today.

Thank you.