Keeping children safe is one of the council's greatest priorities. We know that our child protection figures have now stabilised, but that doesn't equate to the numbers reducing in placements, as an example, and the reason that I say that is because once a child has been taken into care and they are looked after, they will either be in a foster placement, a kinship caring arrangement, or they will be in residential accommodation of some description. That trajectory is just keeping on, and where Mary Ann referred earlier to other departments covering those costs, at the minute, across local government in Wales, we have an expectation with the budgets in-year just for social services that there’s £69 million that councils have to find, essentially, across Wales.
When we talk about ageing demographics, here in Bridgend, I am not going to be able to deliver social care without automation in future years, because I do not have the birth rate to sustain a workforce at that level with the trajectory that is predicted. When we look at the population needs assessment across all regional partnership boards, it's clearly indicating that we've got a lower birth rate, we've got lower economic activity for younger people, and we also know that we've got an ageing demographic with really complex health conditions, some of which could be addressed earlier with an early intervention and prevention strategy. If we could stop them going into crisis, that would assist us. But people are generally living longer. I know there are different areas of Wales that are particularly stricken—that is what I want to say—and their death rate, their morbidity rate, is actually lowering.
I do think that we provide excellent services, and I think that we have prioritised the health board, quite rightly so, during COVID, but what we do know is that we are losing staff to health boards from social care, because they are paid better, and across the UK there are different ways of addressing the disparity of pay between health and social care. You'll understand that the national care service is looking and addressing that, but there's a call for all our workforce in health and social care to be on the ‘Agenda for Change’ framework, which is the case across the UK, I have to say, and that was a way of the UK addressing those inequalities in pay. But I know, just to keep my social workers—. You'll be aware of the problems that children's services had in Bridgend. One of the ways that we maintained and created a stable workforce was by giving a market supplement to our social workers, particularly in children's services, and particularly in child protection and safeguarding arrangements, because we cannot recruit to that level for the pay that our staff are on.
I think the other thing we need to say is that we expect cumulative pressures across Wales to hit £200 million in social care arrangements in the next three years. So, we need to look at what we're doing. We need to look carefully at what we're doing, but we need to pay our staff fairly and appropriately, because we are losing them to health board pay, terms and conditions.
And residential placements, when we talk about residential placements for children with complex needs, that's an awful lot around behaviour management and psychology. Yes, health boards are assisting in some regard, but they're not fending all of it. And we will always do that as a standard, because those children deserve the best that we can offer them under our corporate parenting framework. Thanks very much, Chair.